Don't stop planning for No Deal - a short thread. After an apparent u-turn by Theresa May, I have heard some people talk about this making No Deal #Brexit unlikely. I would caution against this for now!
Theresa May gave a commitment to a vote to extend article 50, delay Brexit for a few months & buy time for more negotiation. This has terms and conditions. First there has to be a vote on 12 March on her deal. If that's rejected, there's a vote on 13 March on whether MPs want No Deal.
If MPs vote against No Deal then we have a vote on 14 March on extending article 50.
I have had a go at drawing the decision tree below. There are twice as many routes to No Deal as there are to an orderly transition. No deal remains the default.
I can foresee MPs voting against May' s deal, voting against No Deal and even voting against extension of article 50. Which takes you to No Deal. If they do request an extension to article 50 will every single EU head of state agree (unanimity is required)?
And if MPs do vote to extend article 50, unless they can then agree something with the EU we will be back to No Deal at the end of June. So whilst hoping for the best (and a deal is possible), keeping planning for a cliff edge Brexit.