The job market looks hot —?but there's a catch

Maybe we don't have such a tight labor market. This link is to a good analysis by Axios following Friday's July jobs report. The 3-month average rate for job creation is just 140k and real wages are growing less than 2%. It's not recession time, but the Red-Shoe Economist concurs with Axios analysis that we don't have such a tight labor market, and that deeper challenges lie beneath the surface from the latest jobs numbers. https://lnkd.in/db7rtu7 #financeandeconomy #icsc #cre #ccim #commercialrealestate #realestatetrends #realestate #realestateinvestment #business #retail #housing #realtors #exploreacre

I had the same conversation last week when the latest jobs numbers came out -- "...experts now cite evidence that the economy may actually only be warm, with millions of people still wishing to get hired, to turn part-time or gig work into full-time employment, and to earn more money."

Today's "eh" jobs report confirms the ongoing, slowing trend in the US labor market. 1) Net job gains were +164K in July, which is almost identical to the average for the year to date (+165K). But a year ago, job gains over that same period averaged +227K. That's a meaningful decline. 2) Lots of people I greatly respect have argued this is "normal" as the economy approaches full employment. I disagree: recently we've been moving *away from* from full employment. The share of prime working age Americans with a job has declined slightly (and is now at a 10 month low). 3) Despite a slight pop in wage growth during July, overall we've seen a small but noticeable deceleration in how fast our wallets are expanding, at the same time as the labor market has cooled. Could be a coincidence? But I doubt it. So to wrap up my jobs day post: the US economy has slowed. The US job market expansion has slowed. I don't think this slowdown is "natural"; the labor market appears to be moving (a little) away from full employment... but this is consistent with weak growth, NOT recession.

Maybe we don't have such a tight labor market. This link is to a good analysis by Axios following Friday's July jobs report. The 3-month average rate for job creation is just 140k and real wages are growing less than 2%. It's not recession time, but the Red-Shoe Economist concurs with Axios analysis that we don't have such a tight labor market, and that deeper challenges lie beneath the surface from the latest jobs numbers. https://lnkd.in/db7rtu7 #financeandeconomy #icsc #cre #ccim #commercialrealestate #realestatetrends #realestate #realestateinvestment #business #retail #housing #realtors #exploreacre

“We are not really running out of workers.” - my comments to Axios’s Steve LeVine about the US jobs market & today’s BLS jobs report

Today's "eh" jobs report confirms the ongoing, slowing trend in the US labor market. 1) Net job gains were +164K in July, which is almost identical to the average for the year to date (+165K). But a year ago, job gains over that same period averaged +227K. That's a meaningful decline. 2) Lots of people I greatly respect have argued this is "normal" as the economy approaches full employment. I disagree: recently we've been moving *away from* from full employment. The share of prime working age Americans with a job has declined slightly (and is now at a 10 month low). 3) Despite a slight pop in wage growth during July, overall we've seen a small but noticeable deceleration in how fast our wallets are expanding, at the same time as the labor market has cooled. Could be a coincidence? But I doubt it. So to wrap up my jobs day post: the US economy has slowed. The US job market expansion has slowed. I don't think this slowdown is "natural"; the labor market appears to be moving (a little) away from full employment... but this is consistent with weak growth, NOT recession.

We have all seen the headlines ... 'US unemployment rate at 50 year low'. May data from the US Labor Department suggests that job creation has slowed dramatically with payroll up just 75,000 jobs. This was much worse than expected. "The sudden slowdown in jobs growth after many months of strong numbers is worrying and signals a weakening economy, a more long-term concern is the persistently low labor force participation rate." Michael Klein has studied labor markets for 30 years as an economist, and he points out that a 3% decline in participation translates to over 6 million people no longer in the labor force. Why are worker's discouraged, and how can we help them get back in? We need to help with reskilling, parental leave, child-care policies, and greater opportunity for part-time work. Are you thinking about the way you are structuring work in your organization and the 'gig economy'?