Xeneta

???Looking Ahead: 2025 Outlook –?Ocean Freight 2025 is shaping up to be another challenging year for ocean container shipping, with no signs of resolution in the Red Sea conflict. The ongoing diversions around Africa continue to strain the system, leaving little capacity to absorb additional shocks. The?Xeneta 2025 Ocean Outlook?highlights how these disruptions impact TEU-mile demand and market capacity. While new ship deliveries and slowing volume growth will offer some relief, the risk of another major incident remains high. With market analysis from Peter Sand and Emily Stausb?ll, there's no better place to understand the shifting dynamics of global trade ahead of 2025 budgeting. Be one of the first to get a copy of the report, here: https://lnkd.in/e5Mz9Ft5 #Shipping #SupplyChain #OceanFreight #Xeneta

"Good insights and food for thought in mastering freight market volatility" Earlier today, Peter Sand delivered a 2025 ocean freight outlook to an intimate group of supply chain and logistics professionals in Singapore. Sand shared containerised freight insights, opportunities for 2025, a 2-year perspective on the Trans-Pacific, as well as Intra-Asian trade lanes to watch. Key insights included: ? Growth in global container volumes will likely slow after a record-breaking 2024. For 2025, Xeneta forecasts a 3% TEU demand growth on a global level. ??Assuming global volume growth of 3% in 2025, a partial return to the Red Sea would see a year-on-year change in TEU-mile demand of between +3% and -11%. ??While 2024 was a year of front-loading, 2025 will see a return a Trade-to-GDP multiplier around 1. This follows a short lift following the US election result. ? Major changes in Alliances in 2025 will bring risk and opportunity –?the best carrier network will vary tremendously from trade to trade ??The threat of geo-politics and regional disputes on supply chains has been clear and present during 2024 – and these major disruptions are now happening with increasing frequency and severity. Shippers should expect and plan for further turmoil in 2025. ? The ongoing impact of conflict in the Red Sea, spiralling freight rates and congestion across global ocean container supply chains have resulted in record high carbon emissions in Q3. Despite this, there are no new major climate regulations for container shipping in 2025. Unlock more insights by downloading the 2025 Outlook Ocean Freight Outlook here: https://lnkd.in/e5Mz9Ft5 *** Big thank you to Raymon Krishnan, Jaya Moorthi and Stefan Pun for joining Xeneta on stage and sharing your insights on how partnerships can resolve industry challenges and manage costs in the changing global supply chain landscape. Thank you also to LogiSYM for hosting today's event and bringing together such a future-focused, curious group of individuals. #oceanfreight #intraasiatrade #supplychain #singapore

While volume growth into Mexico has been extraordinary in 2021, 2023 and 2024, in terms of actual numbers of boxes, it pales in comparison to the world’s other major fronthaul trades. This means freight rates are particularly susceptible to volatility and we can see this in the Xeneta data. During 2024, average spot rates have peaked six times on the trade from China to Mexico West Coast. In comparison, the trade from China to the US West Coast has peaked just three times. To emphasise the volatility further, average spot rates into the Mexico West Coast increased 28% on 1 September before falling back 34% just one month later on 1 October. Volumes on this trade show it is an increasingly attractive option for shippers, but this volatility means it comes with the risk of unpredictable freight spend. Read more from Peter Sand about the advantages of adopting a data-driven approach when procuring freight. https://lnkd.in/eh9uxXKc #data #china #mexico #freightintelligence #oceanfreight

Who has the biggest say in defining peak season surcharges – carriers, shippers or market forces? ? As the lines between traditional peak seasons blur, we’re seeing more surcharges applied outside usual peak times, challenging pricing elasticity and planning processes. ? But what does this mean for the future of shipping? ? During the recent Xeneta Summit, Yi Yin, Michael Aldwell and Gavin van Marle (moderator) took to the stage to discuss how supply and demand patterns, infrastructure, and market dynamics are redefining what we know about peak seasons and freight rates. ? Aldwell spoke to the fact that exploring new ways to procure ocean freight and being open to change is how we, as an industry, get better. In his words: “Event-driven disruptions that impact terminal operations and performance will likely become more common in the future. Businesses need to plan for that and have contingency plans in place” Other talking points included the relationship between capacity and raising spot rates, how ageing infrastructure at ports and logistic hubs impact the efficiency of import cycles, and successful strategies to help maintain service reliability during black swan events. Things to consider during 2025 tender negotiations. Read more insights from the Summit here:?https://lnkd.in/eGxXqAgr #supplychain #xenetasummit #logistics

Predicting how and why ocean container shipping rates rise or fall is not an easy task and means shippers struggle to forecast freight spend with any degree of accuracy or confidence, especially in light of the volatility in 2024. There is no crystal ball, but by combining Xeneta data and market intelligence you can gain valuable insights. The trade from China to Mexico is a good example of the importance of taking a data-driven approach. Read more here from Peter Sand here: https://lnkd.in/eh9uxXKc #chinatomexico #datadriven #oceanfreight

Are you in #Singapore next week and keen to learn more about how Xeneta is transforming the world of ocean and air freight and #containershipping? Join Peter Sand and other guests for an exclusive roundtable looking at how partnerships can resolve #supplychain challenges and mitigate cost. Sand will also be sharing insights into 2025 trends, challenges and opportunities, giving you a unique look into how APAC trade will develop over the coming months. Ideal for senior procurement professionals for global freight shipping companies looking to expand their networks, exchange strategic insights and foster new opportunities and partnerships. Date: 27 Nov 2024, 2-3:30pm SGT Hosted by: LogiSYM Sign up here: https://lnkd.in/dTqwN9nX

As?reported on 6 November?2024,?Peter Sand, Xeneta chief analyst warned that: “Shipping is a global industry feeding on international trade, so another Trump presidency is a step in the wrong direction. “The knee-jerk reaction from US shippers will be to front-load imports before Trump is able to impose his new tariffs. Back in 2018, the tariff on Chinese imports was 25%, now it is increasing up to 100%, so the incentive to front-load is even greater.” For shippers directly impacted by the proposed tariffs, monitoring?ocean container shipping data?on a global level will enable them to see in real-time the impact of rapid shifts in global sourcing, near-shoring and front-loading. The latest Xeneta piece in The Loadstar shares five additional factors to consider when contingency planning. Read more here: https://lnkd.in/eZvaZY4T #oceanfreight #trump #tariffs

Massive shifts in global trading patterns in 2024 have made the task of managing and optimizing supply chains even more complex. This is perfectly demonstrated on the trade from the Far East to South America East Coast where a record-breaking 1.6m TEU (20ft shipping container) was shipped in the first nine months of the year – driven by exports from China, which are up 14.8% compared to 2023. Alongside the record-breaking volume on this trade is an all-time high in offered capacity, which averaged 63 900 TEU in the first four weeks of October (30 September to 27 October). This is an increase of 73% compared to the same period in 2023 (source: Xeneta/Sea-Intelligence). Prior to 2024, the four week average of capacity on this trade had never been above 50 000 TEU, but that mark has now been passed 13 times... Read Emily Stausb?ll's latest blog to understand the impact of shifts in global trade; including a breakdown of record capacity, deteriorating transit times and schedule reliability, and factors contributing to the softening of spot rates: https://lnkd.in/eCcvcTKk #transittimes #schedulereliability #spotrates #supplychain

Xeneta data shows that the average spot rate for air freight from Asia to the US was up 49% in October from a year ago, sitting at $5.46 a kilogram. Over the same period, rates from Asia to Europe rose 25%. These raised rates don't seem to have slowed down China-founded ecommerce groups, who continue to take advantage of import duty exemptions on shipments below a certain price. But as the Financial Times warns: "Strong growth in demand for cheap online goods from Chinese ecommerce groups and the rising use of air freight amid disruption in the Red Sea are threatening to overwhelm the already strained rapid delivery market before Christmas, causing air freight rates to jump. "US and EU lawmakers are looking to clamp down on the flow of imports from China using this duty “loophole”, with the White House proposing to exclude a range of goods from the exemption in September, while Brussels has discussed scrapping a €150 threshold under which items can be bought duty free" Read more on the story here: https://lnkd.in/es_2gpe9 #xenetadata #APAC #trade #supplychain #airfreight

There's been a little less twinkle in China, as Trump Tariffs shifted US Christmas light sourcing from China to Cambodia. US Census data compiled by Xeneta found that Cambodia successfully found ways around the higher duties imposed by then-President Donald Trump in 2018, seeing it become the top US supplier of Christmas lights for the past five consecutive years. According to Bloomberg, this has been a 'remarkable shift', especially when you consider that the United States was doing ~$560 billion in total merchandise trade with China in 2018, and less than $6 billion with Cambodia. As the article states, this shift shows that "some early Trump’s tariffs had a speedy impact on certain items: The country of origin of a product as basic and cheap to make as Christmas lights can move quickly, originating mostly from China one holiday season and Cambodia the next." But “this time, it’s going to be different,” Emily Stausb?ll added. Near-shoring calculations are going to need refinement. Where goods are produced may need a rethink, and strategies to avoid the promised barrage of higher import taxes will come into effect, impacting demand and inventory capacity. Read more on the impact of Trump’s campaign pledges here: https://lnkd.in/eGdw4fik #USimports #bloomberg #chinatrade #tariffs Image taken from the Bloomberg article linked above, written by Brendan Murray on November 14th 2024