William Myers Group, LLC

ECONOMY WATCH: PAY Job Seekers Hit Wall of Salary Deflation Wall Street Journal (03/16/25) Bindley, Katherine; Cook, Lynn The salary difference between those who stay in their roles and those who change jobs has declined to its lowest level in 10 years, according to the latest federal data. Job stayers increased their wages by approximately 4.6% in January and February. Meanwhile, those who switched jobs received only slightly more at 4.8%. That gap has narrowed considerably since the start of 2023, when job switchers could obtain an average salary increase of 7.7%, compared with job stayers’ 5.5%. In the tech industry, workers aren’t likely to find a new job for more money than they are already making. In the second half of 2024, median pay decreased between 1% and 2% for several roles, including software engineers, product designers, and technical program managers, according to Levels.fyi data. Senior and midlevel leaders in tech face the most pronounced pay drops of between $10,000 and $40,000 a year, says Michael Butts, chief executive of Burtch Works, a staffing company that tracks compensation for executives and white-collar professionals around the U.S

ECONOMY WATCH: Q1 CONCERNS Business Executives’ Outlook on U.S. Economy Fades Amid Tariff and Inflation Worries PRNewswire (03/06/25) A post-election boost in business executives’ optimism about the U.S. economy has moderated, according to the Economic Outlook Survey from the Association of International Certified Professional Accountants. The proportion of respondents with a positive view of the economy, which included 305 certified public accountants who hold leadership positions at their companies, fell from a three-year high of 67% last quarter to 47% in the first quarter. The shift reflects growing concerns about inflation and tariffs. Expansion plans held steady from the previous quarter. Economic optimism remains higher than at any point since mid-2021. The hiring picture remains stable, despite concern about costs and availability of talent. Inflation remained the top concern for business executives, followed by issues related to staffing—employee and benefit costs (second), availability of skilled personnel (third), and staff turnover (10th). Some 39% of business executives said they had too few employees, a 1% increase from last quarter. One in five said they were ready to hire immediately, unchanged from last quarter.

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ECONOMY WATCH: EMPLOYMENT- OPEN JOBS TO FILL RATIO The Conference Board Employment Trends Index Declined in February PRNewswire (03/10/25) The Conference Board Employment Trends Index declined in February, to 108.56, from an upwardly revised 109.45 in January. “Growing policy uncertainty is beginning to weigh on business and consumer sentiment, with more substantial impacts from federal layoffs and funding disruptions expected in the months ahead,” said Mitchell Barnes, economist at the Conference Board. The share of consumers who report “jobs are hard to get” rose 1.8 percentage points in February. The share of small firms that report jobs are “not able to be filled right now” rose from 35% to 38%, its largest monthly increase in nearly a year. These trends reflect modest declines in perceived labor market strength despite measures of economic activity remaining stable. “While recently announced federal and private sector layoffs weren’t fully captured in February’s employment report, several ETI components show potential early warning signs of wavering conditions,” Barnes noted. The share of involuntary part-time workers rose from 16.7% in January to 18% in February—its highest level since 2021. Employment in the temporary help industry also declined, with total temporary job losses of 22,000 over January and February.