Wall Street Bets

This week, market attention will be centered on earnings from major retailers and a key jobs report. Target and Best Buy are set to release their earnings on Tuesday. This will be followed by reports from Macy's, Kroger, Costco Wholesale, Gap, and Burlington Stores on Thursday. Additionally, the labor market will be in the spotlight with the Bureau of Labor Statistics' February jobs report scheduled for release on Friday. According to the consensus forecast from FactSet, February's nonfarm payrolls report is anticipated to show an increase of 160,000 jobs, up from January's gain of 143,000 jobs. The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4%. Meanwhile, average hourly earnings are projected to decrease by 0.3% month-over-month, down from the previous month's increase of 0.5%. If unemployment comes in higher than expected, anticipate talks of rate cuts to begin again. While the market may look to blame DOGE for a weakening job market.

The final week of February is poised to be pivotal for Wall Street, spotlighted by Nvidia's earnings announcement and the Federal Reserve's favored measure of inflation. Monday will start with earnings reports from Domino's Pizza, Diamondback Energy, and Zoom Communications. On Tuesday, investors will turn their attention to results from Caesars Entertainment, Cava Group, Home Depot, and Workday. Wednesday takes center stage with Nvidia's much-anticipated report, accompanied by updates from Anheuser-Busch InBev, eBay, Lowe's, Salesforce, Snowflake, and TJX. Rounding out the week, Thursday will feature reports from Autodesk, HP, and Warner Bros. Discovery. Another inflation measure, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, is scheduled to release for January on Friday. Economists are predicting a 2.5% year-over-year increase, a slight dip from December's figure by one-tenth of a percentage point #stocks #inflation

In this week's blog we discuss: - Market Performance: As of February 20, 2025, the S&P 500 is up 4% and the MSCI World Index is up 5%, driven by lower central bank rates and steady economic growth despite inflation and tariffs. Key trends include U.S. mega-cap tech stocks underperforming, stabilized Treasury yields, and European equities surpassing U.S. markets. - Mega-Cap Tech Stocks: After leading the market in 2024, the "Magnificent 7" tech stocks have shown mixed results in 2025, generally underperforming most asset classes. - Treasury Yields: The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield, which rose sharply since September 2024, has stabilized around 4.5%. Potential future Fed rate cuts could be supportive if the economy or labor market slows. - European Equity Strength: European markets, as evidenced by the EuroStoxx 50 Index's 13% rise, are outperforming U.S. stocks, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar and positive eurozone economic surprises. - Upcoming Economic and Earnings Events: Key earnings reports from companies like Nvidia, Home Depot, and Salesforce are expected. The PCE price index, an inflation measure, is set for release, predicting a 2.5% year-over-year increase. Real estate data from the S&P Case-Shiller Index and Pending Home Sales Index are also anticipated.

In this week's blog we discuss: - January's Consumer Price Index showed stronger than expected price increases, with core inflation staying around 3.3%. The Federal Reserve is not expected to decrease interest rates soon, with a potential rate cut likely in the second half of the year. - A shift in market leadership is occurring, with earnings growth for the S&P 493 (excluding major tech companies) beginning to rise. European equities are outperforming, and investors are advised to focus on cyclical, value-oriented, and international investments. - U.S. markets will be closed for Presidents Day. Key events include various company earnings releases and the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes. Housing market data is also anticipated, with reports from the National Association of Home Builders and the Census Bureau. - Upcoming earnings reports feature companies like Arista Networks, Devon Energy, Medtronic, Alibaba Group Holding, Walmart, and others. Wednesday will reveal Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes for insights into monetary policy. - January 2025 saw a decline in U.S. retail sales, illustrating economic challenges at the start of the year.

Next week, investors will focus on the latest inflation figures and a slew of fourth-quarter earnings reports. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January on Wednesday, which is expected to come in at 2.9%. Our concern this week is that any positive news on inflation will be drowned out by tariff news. As with stocks, future guidance is more important than past results. With the Federal Reserve's interest rate reductions currently paused, investors will wait for further progress in curbing inflation. On Thursday, the BLS is set to publish the Producer Price Index (PPI) for January. Additional economic indicators to monitor next week include the National Federation of Independent Business' Small Business Optimism Index for January, which will be available on Tuesday, and the Census Bureau's retail sales data for January, scheduled for release on Friday. Earnings announcements will begin with McDonald's on Monday, followed by Coca-Cola, DoorDash, Marriott International, Shopify, and Super Micro Computer on Tuesday. On Wednesday, Cisco Systems, Robinhood, Ventas, and Vertiv Holdings will reveal their results.

Next week promises a wealth of significant economic updates and fourth-quarter earnings reports. About 25% of S&P 500 companies are set to unveil their earnings, making it a critical period for investors and analysts alike. The week kicks off on Monday with earnings reports from Palantir Technologies and Tyson Foods. A slew of major releases follows on Tuesday, featuring Advanced Micro Devices, Alphabet, Chipotle Mexican Grill, PayPal Holdings, PepsiCo, Pfizer, and Spotify Technology. Wednesday brings earnings announcements from Arm Holdings, Ford Motor, Novo Nordisk, Qualcomm, Uber Technologies, and Walt Disney. On Thursday, the spotlight shifts to Amazon, ConocoPhillips, Eli Lilly, Expedia Group, Honeywell International, Linde, and Philip Morris International. Closing out the week on Friday, Cboe Global Markets and FirstEnergy will share their results. In addition to these corporate updates, important economic data is also anticipated. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the January jobs report on Friday, with economists projecting the addition of 165,000 nonfarm payrolls and a steady unemployment rate of 4.1%.

As we pause to honor Martin Luther King Jr. Day, stock and bond markets will take a breather on Monday. However, when Wall Street swings back into action, brace yourself for an action-packed week as a slew of fourth-quarter earnings reports takes center stage. Starting Tuesday, heavyweights such as 3M, Charles Schwab, D.R. Horton, Netflix, and United Airlines Holdings will unveil their financial results. The momentum continues into Wednesday with updates from GE Vernova, Johnson & Johnson, and Procter & Gamble. Thursday promises more revelations as Freeport-McMoRan, GE Aerospace, Texas Instruments, and Union Pacific share their performances, paving the way for Friday’s earnings from American Express, NextEra Energy, and Verizon Communications. Beyond corporate earnings, economic indicators will also vie for attention. The week concludes with the release of S&P Global’s Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers Indexes for January and the National Association of Realtors' existing-home sales data for December, both slated for Friday. #stocks #investing #tiktokban

The US inflation rate was recorded at 2.7 per cent in November, meeting the expectations of analysts and paving the way for the anticipated Federal Reserve interest rate cut next week. According to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Wednesday, the figure was in line with the estimates of economists surveyed by Bloomberg. However, it was higher than the 2.6 per cent rate seen in October, which itself showed an increase from the previous month. Based on market indicators, investors now have a 98 per cent likelihood of a 0.25 per cent rate cut in December, up from less than 90 per cent prior to the release of the latest inflation numbers. #stocks #inflation

In this week's blog we discuss: - Economic indicators show resilient growth of the U.S. economy, with key metrics remaining in expansion territory. - The November labor market data has shown a rebound with 227,000 new jobs added, exceeding expectations and revising last month's figures slightly higher. - Consumers can continue to benefit from lower interest rates and an increase in wage growth surpassing #inflation rates, supporting the fundamental backdrop for financial markets. - Short-duration bonds and cash-like instruments may be a prudent consideration for investors in anticipation of lower yields in the coming year. - Next week will see the release of important economic indicators, including the consumer price index and producer price index, as well as earnings reports from major retailers and software firms. #stocks #investing

The upcoming holiday-shortened week will bring a focus on retailer earnings and the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation data. On Thursday, U.S. stock and bond markets will be closed for Thanksgiving, with a half day of trading on Friday. The week will kick off with quarterly reports from Bath & Body Works and Zoom Video Communications on Monday, followed by a busy Tuesday with releases from Best Buy, CrowdStrike, Dell Technologies, Dick’s Sporting Goods, HP, Macy’s, Nordstrom, and Workday. On Wednesday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis will release the personal-consumption expenditures price index for October, with economists predicting a 2.3% year-over-year increase. Additional economic data to watch next week includes new residential sales for October and the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index for November on Tuesday, followed by the durable goods report for October and the National Association of Realtors' Pending Home Sales Index for October on Wednesday. #investing #stocks