USC Neighborhood Data for Social Change (NDSC)

No matter where you are in LA County, you’re at risk for an earthquake. But how much risk? In short, a lot. ?? Data Analyst Cameron Yap shows that FEMA’s national risk index reveals a variety of risk percentiles across the county, but they’re all quite high. Even the lowest risk neighborhoods in LA County still rank above the 87th percentile nationwide. The highest-risk areas approach the 99th percentile. Whether you’re in the hills, by the coast, or deep in the valleys, earthquake preparedness matters. What is earthquake risk like near you? Drop any neighborhood in the comments, and we’ll show you!

If you had to guess your home’s value, how close would you be? You’d probably be within about 10% of the market value. Research Assistant Rediet R. shows the value that homeowners estimate in the American Community Survey seem to align with Zillow’s home value index derived from market data. Maybe more homeowners are obsessively checking their latest values online. (We’re not here to judge!) But statistically, something else could be at play. What is the median home value in your area? Drop a neighborhood in the comments, and we can show you!

Discover community profiles for regions affected by the Eaton, Palisades, and Hurst Fires, now available on NDSC. https://conta.cc/4izFmCL

If you live in LA County, you’re likely exposed to toxic releases. From a public health perspective, it’s not about if you’re exposed to toxic releases, but at what concentration and for how long. Research Assistant Rediet R. looks closer at the massive scale of industry activity across the region and what that means for the air we breathe. There is a clear concentration of activity in the South Bay, but that’s not the only hub of toxic releases in the county. What are the toxic releases near you? Drop a neighborhood in the comments and we’ll show you!

Congratulations to everyone who completed the winter session of the USC Ross Program in Real Estate! It was great to connect with the cohort and show them all the free data tools NDSC has available to real estate professionals!

I am not saying (yet) that this is a problem, but it may be a problem. Los Angeles has unusually high land values as a fraction of total property values. Based on LA County Assessor Data, USC Neighborhood Data for Social Change (NDSC) has computed that land makes of roughly 2/3 of the property values in Altadena and Pacific Palisades. Insurance generally covers improvement value. Suppose the typical loan-to-value ratio in the two communities beset by fires is 40 percent. This means because the amount owed is 40 percent of property value, and the amount of improvements is worth 33 percent of property value, in the absence of some sort of forbearance, insurance proceeds won't be sufficient to pay off the mortgage balance. Unless a family has ready cash-on-hand, they may feel the need to sell their land in order to settle with their lender. If people just want to leave and sell their land without feeling financial pressure to do so, that is fine. But if people are forced to sell, well, that could compound their sense of loss.

Home prices keep rising further out of reach in LA County. According to a recent LA Times piece, home prices increased by approximately 30% from 2018 to 2023 in the city of LA. That’s a 30% increase in just 5 years. At the county level, Data Analyst Cameron Yap visualizes this trend over time using data from the American Community Survey. What is the Median Home Value near you? Name any LA County neighborhood in the comments and we can show you!

Even experts in risk assessment couldn’t predict the wildfire’s behavior in Altadena. Chase McNeill took a look at how the FEMA National Risk Index map measures up to the Eaton Fire footprint. Though the fire’s range was mostly in sync with recent assessments, one census tract saw significant damage from the Eaton Fire that defied expectations for a wildfire’s strength. It’s a testament to both the risks before us and the unknown variables that SoCal faces as climate change advances. If you or someone you know needs resources, see the link in the comments.

This one stumps me. I was horsing around with average time to work and rent by neighborhood in Los Angeles County using the USC Neighborhood Data for Social Change (NDSC) compilation of American Community Survey data. On the left is the relationship between commuting time and rent in 2019; on the right is the relationship for 2021. I would have thought that people working from home would mean the rent gradient would get shallower. Instead, it got steeper. A 20-minute difference in commute time went from a $580 rent difference to $1100. The median wage in LA County is about $28/hour, meaning 40 minutes of round-trip commuting costs about $19 per day in time. If the average driving speed is 30 mph, that is 20 miles a day to commute. The IRS mileage rate is $0.67/mile, adding another $13 or so per day. $32/day multiplied by 20 commuting days a month is $640, so the 2019 relationship makes sense. But what is going on in 2021? Yes, lots of other things (school, coastal views) go into rents, but they haven't changed much over time. As I already noted, WFH should flatten the gradient. I am puzzled.

Crossing Figueroa is deadly, and sadly, we’re not exaggerating. Since 2010, three intersections along Figueroa have seen 115 collisions resulting in severe injury or death for pedestrians and cyclists. Data Analyst Cameron Yap explains how our partnership with South Los Angeles Transit Empowerment Zone (SLATE-Z) enabled this data to pinpoint the most dangerous intersections around the University of Southern California University Park Campus. How many severe traffic collisions have recently occurred near you? Drop a neighborhood in the comments and we will show you. #data #losangeles #traffic