Time Series Terminal

Velocity of money: how many times one dollar changes hand in an economy It was around 5 for the United States, trending down from 5 to 1-2 for UK and Euro Area (through 2023), and fluctuating around 1-2 for China (through 2022). https://lnkd.in/egkrm5Xx

The brain contains a library of "event scripts" -- memory of recurring life events, such as the sequence that typically unfolds at a restaurant. Computational advances in analysing brain data have identified distinct neural signatures, shared across people, for specific steps of a sequence. The brain places new information on top of these scaffolds to form memories. "Narrative is fundamental to the way that people remember their day, their week and their life." https://lnkd.in/e4Fn6qkh

2025-02: Gold, oil and gas energy driving US equity six months out US protective trade policies: if it is harder to get dollar from trade, then a foreign central bank may turn to buying gold for the reserve. https://lnkd.in/eVJVMfeC

Onshore and offshore Chinese Yuan The onshore market is in China mainland, offshore in Hong Kong. The onshore USDCNY cannot float much away from an anchor value published daily. The offshore USDCNH is determined by market force. Over the last weeks, the offshore USDCNH was higher than the onshore USDCNY. However from 28/01 to 04/02 inclusive (8 days), the onshore market was closed celebrating the Chinese New Year, there should have been no quotes. That applies for Yahoo Finance CNY=X. On TradingEconomics they display the offshore USDCNH for the China currency. Below is a plot of USDCNH vs USDCNY from our data provider Open Exchange Rates. From 28/01 to 04/02 inclusive there should have been no quotes for USDCNY (between the marked points). Yan Song

How DeepSeek learns reasoning capability It first learns simple rules exactly right, then complex combinatorial thinking process. 1. Pattern matching in a memory-economical way ("attention latent vector"). A pattern is a short piece of text, for example "United Kingdom" as in "Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet United Kingdom consectetur adipiscing elit". 2. Learn the basic rules exactly right ("Finetuning"), like 2 + 3 = 5. 3. Optimise the thinking process towards the correct one for more complex problems ("GRPO Policy Optimisation"). It generates many candidate thinking processes, and gives the correct one higher score. It does the Finetuning and Policy Optimisation twice over. DeepSeek-R1: Incentivizing Reasoning Capability in LLMs via Reinforcement Learning https://lnkd.in/g8qBCSy6

Just one day after Powell to hold off on rate cut, three out of top four driving factors of US stock indexes are interest rate related. https://lnkd.in/eTdzdaPc As of Thu 30 Jan close, driving factors for the values on the day in 6 months. GE is GE Aerospace as they spun off other businesses.

US 10-year interest rate, Industrials driving US equity no more than one week after the Inauguration. https://lnkd.in/eeaXfreJ

Both IEF.US and TLT.US (treasury bond ETF) driving factors include Chinese currencies, and the daily position on the bond is going up. So bond price envisioned?to go up, interest rate envisioned to go down. So it may be interpreted as: when USD get strong vs other currencies, there’ll be deflationary pressure coming from those other economies. “DeepSeek” was an economic story of “go cheaper”. IEF.US 7-10 year US bond ETF https://tsterm.com/?q=ief TLT.US 20+ year US bond ETF https://tsterm.com/?q=tlt

Five key takeaways from new data on UK household wealth https://lnkd.in/eb4AZYiJ

AAPL: Since July 2024, the majority model votes were never bullish, the daily position shaved off to "26%" today. The AAPL price turned out to be flat over the forecast horizon 6 months from July 2024 to January 2025. Sharpe ratio (the higher the better): active 1.11 buy-and-hold 0.94 https://tsterm.com/?q=aapl