Morning Consult的动态

In a historic political comeback, Donald Trump has been projected to win the 2024 U.S. presidential election, defeating Vice President Kamala Harris in a closely watched race. ???? Trump’s success hinged on reclaiming key battleground states, including Georgia, Pennsylvania, & Wisconsin, which were pivotal in his path to the required 270 electoral votes. With strong voter turnout among his base & significant gains in swing states, Trump’s victory underscores a shift in voter sentiment compared to the last election. Analysts are already examining the factors that contributed to Harris’s defeat & the overall dynamics of the 2024 race. ??? Experts suggest that several challenges may have impacted Harris’s campaign. The Democratic Party’s decision not to hold a new primary election reportedly limited voter engagement & excitement, with some supporters expressing concern over the lack of fresh voices in the race. Additionally, ongoing issues at the U.S.-Mexico border, inflation concerns, & other policy challenges may have influenced public sentiment, impacting Harris’s ability to rally a broad coalition of support. ?? Some political analysts also cite economic uncertainty as a factor that may have motivated voters to seek a change in leadership. Trump’s victory also marks a significant triumph for the Republican Party, which is projected to regain control of the Senate. With this win, Republicans are expected to introduce legislative changes that align with Trump’s policy goals, particularly in areas such as immigration, the economy, & healthcare. Meanwhile, the House of Representatives’ majority remains undetermined, with several races still too close to call & could shape the balance of power for the coming term. The election’s outcome has already sparked discussions within both parties about strategy & priorities moving forward. The 2024 race highlights the shifting priorities of the American electorate & serves as a reminder of the dynamic nature of U.S. politics. As both parties reflect on the results, they are likely to re-evaluate their platforms in preparation for future elections & continue to address the issues that resonate most with voters. ??

New Post: Minnesota, Colorado and Texas bring Trump’s state victories to 11 -A new poll out this week in Virginia provided Nikki Haley with further fuel for her argument that she is far better positioned to take on Joe Biden at the ballot box in November than Donald Trump. The Roanoke College poll found in a hypothetical match-up, Haley would beat Biden by nearly 9 points in... A new poll out this week in Virginia provided Nikki Haley with further fuel for her argument that she is far better positioned to take on Joe Biden at the ballot box in November than Donald Trump.The Roanoke College poll found in a hypothetical match-up, Haley would beat Biden by nearly 9 points in Virginia, with the support of 49 per cent of the electorate, compared with 40 per cent for Biden.The same poll found that in a contest between Trump and Biden, the Democratic incumbent president would win, 47 per cent to 43 per cent.The poll underscores a fact that many politicos in Virginia have known for some time: the majority of voters there strongly dislike Trump, but would back another Republican if given the chance.That was made clear in 2021, when Republican political novice and former Carlyle executive Glenn Youngkin was elected governor there, just one year after Biden won the state by 10 points over Trump.But now, the state’s Republicans look set to give Trump yet another primary win on Tuesday: the Roanoke poll showed that Trump had the backing of 75 per cent of GOP voters in Virginia, compared to just 15 per cent who said they supported Haley.Still, Haley is hoping to outperform the polls there thanks to the “open” nature of the primary: the state does not have party registration for voters, so anyone can participate, regardless of whether they consider themselves Republicans, Democrats or independents. Source link

This is just the beginning. It starts to sink in that Americans now can chose between a normal, logical, positive person that really can make America Great Again. And one that fakes he can do it and shows every sign of cognitive deficiency, a lack of logical reasoning and a perception of what is right and what is wrong. "Though the dynamics of the campaign have shifted since Biden left the race in July, the findings in the new Post-ABC-Ipsos poll continue to point to a tight election in November, when seven swing states — Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada — are likely to determine who wins in the electoral college. Other public polls have indicated that Harris has gained ground in most if not all those swing states since Biden left the race, but they, too, show the race in most of those states as being within the range of a normal polling error. One sign of how the shift from Biden to Harris has affected voters’ attitudes is on the question of how satisfied people are with the choice of Harris vs. Trump. In July, when the contest was still Biden vs. Trump, 28 percent of voters overall said they were satisfied with the choice. Today, 44 percent say they are satisfied with the choice of Harris or Trump. The biggest shift in sentiment has come among Democrats. Last month, 20 percent of Democrats said they were satisfied with the choice of Biden vs. Trump. Now, with Harris as the party’s nominee, 60 percent of Democrats express satisfaction with the current matchup."

New Post: Minnesota, Colorado and Texas bring Trump’s state victories to 11 -A new poll out this week in Virginia provided Nikki Haley with further fuel for her argument that she is far better positioned to take on Joe Biden at the ballot box in November than Donald Trump. The Roanoke College poll found in a hypothetical match-up, Haley would beat Biden by nearly 9 points in... A new poll out this week in Virginia provided Nikki Haley with further fuel for her argument that she is far better positioned to take on Joe Biden at the ballot box in November than Donald Trump.The Roanoke College poll found in a hypothetical match-up, Haley would beat Biden by nearly 9 points in Virginia, with the support of 49 per cent of the electorate, compared with 40 per cent for Biden.The same poll found that in a contest between Trump and Biden, the Democratic incumbent president would win, 47 per cent to 43 per cent.The poll underscores a fact that many politicos in Virginia have known for some time: the majority of voters there strongly dislike Trump, but would back another Republican if given the chance.That was made clear in 2021, when Republican political novice and former Carlyle executive Glenn Youngkin was elected governor there, just one year after Biden won the state by 10 points over Trump.But now, the state’s Republicans look set to give Trump yet another primary win on Tuesday: the Roanoke poll showed that Trump had the backing of 75 per cent of GOP voters in Virginia, compared to just 15 per cent who said they supported Haley.Still, Haley is hoping to outperform the polls there thanks to the “open” nature of the primary: the state does not have party registration for voters, so anyone can participate, regardless of whether they consider themselves Republicans, Democrats or independents. Source link

New Post: Minnesota, Colorado and Texas bring Trump’s state victories to 11 -A new poll out this week in Virginia provided Nikki Haley with further fuel for her argument that she is far better positioned to take on Joe Biden at the ballot box in November than Donald Trump. The Roanoke College poll found in a hypothetical match-up, Haley would beat Biden by nearly 9 points in... A new poll out this week in Virginia provided Nikki Haley with further fuel for her argument that she is far better positioned to take on Joe Biden at the ballot box in November than Donald Trump.The Roanoke College poll found in a hypothetical match-up, Haley would beat Biden by nearly 9 points in Virginia, with the support of 49 per cent of the electorate, compared with 40 per cent for Biden.The same poll found that in a contest between Trump and Biden, the Democratic incumbent president would win, 47 per cent to 43 per cent.The poll underscores a fact that many politicos in Virginia have known for some time: the majority of voters there strongly dislike Trump, but would back another Republican if given the chance.That was made clear in 2021, when Republican political novice and former Carlyle executive Glenn Youngkin was elected governor there, just one year after Biden won the state by 10 points over Trump.But now, the state’s Republicans look set to give Trump yet another primary win on Tuesday: the Roanoke poll showed that Trump had the backing of 75 per cent of GOP voters in Virginia, compared to just 15 per cent who said they supported Haley.Still, Haley is hoping to outperform the polls there thanks to the “open” nature of the primary: the state does not have party registration for voters, so anyone can participate, regardless of whether they consider themselves Republicans, Democrats or independents. Source link

New Post: Minnesota, Colorado and Texas bring Trump’s state victories to 11 -A new poll out this week in Virginia provided Nikki Haley with further fuel for her argument that she is far better positioned to take on Joe Biden at the ballot box in November than Donald Trump. The Roanoke College poll found in a hypothetical match-up, Haley would beat Biden by nearly 9 points in... A new poll out this week in Virginia provided Nikki Haley with further fuel for her argument that she is far better positioned to take on Joe Biden at the ballot box in November than Donald Trump.The Roanoke College poll found in a hypothetical match-up, Haley would beat Biden by nearly 9 points in Virginia, with the support of 49 per cent of the electorate, compared with 40 per cent for Biden.The same poll found that in a contest between Trump and Biden, the Democratic incumbent president would win, 47 per cent to 43 per cent.The poll underscores a fact that many politicos in Virginia have known for some time: the majority of voters there strongly dislike Trump, but would back another Republican if given the chance.That was made clear in 2021, when Republican political novice and former Carlyle executive Glenn Youngkin was elected governor there, just one year after Biden won the state by 10 points over Trump.But now, the state’s Republicans look set to give Trump yet another primary win on Tuesday: the Roanoke poll showed that Trump had the backing of 75 per cent of GOP voters in Virginia, compared to just 15 per cent who said they supported Haley.Still, Haley is hoping to outperform the polls there thanks to the “open” nature of the primary: the state does not have party registration for voters, so anyone can participate, regardless of whether they consider themselves Republicans, Democrats or independents. Source link

NYT - April 13 - By?Shane Goldmacher - 'Biden Shrinks Trump’s Edge in Latest Times/Siena Poll - The president’s popularity has ticked up slightly, though voters still view Donald J. Trump more favorably and have dour views of the economy. President Biden has nearly erased Donald J. Trump’s early polling advantage, amid signs that the Democratic base has begun to coalesce behind the president despite lingering doubts about the direction of the country, the economy and his age, according to?a new survey by The New York Times and Siena College. Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump are now virtually tied, with Mr. Trump holding a 46 percent to 45 percent edge. That is an improvement for Mr. Biden from late February, when Mr. Trump had a sturdier?48 percent to 43 percent lead?just before he became the presumptive Republican nominee. Mr. Biden’s tick upward appears to stem largely from his improved standing among traditional Democratic voters — he is winning a greater share of voters who supported him in 2020 than he did a month ago. Then, Mr. Trump had secured the support of far more of his past voters compared with the president — 97 percent to 83 percent — but that margin has narrowed. Mr. Biden is now winning 89 percent of his 2020 supporters compared with 94 percent for Mr. Trump.'

Trump Takes MASSIVE Lead Over Kamala In Top 2024 Forecast Chris Powell September 9, 2024 Former President Donald Trump has surged ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris in the latest 2024 election forecast as the country inches closer to Election Day. According to the latest data released on Monday by renowned poll analyst Nate Silver, Trump holds a commanding 64.4% to Harris’ 35.3% in the nationwide forecast. This marks a new high for Trump, reinforcing his growing momentum as a potential frontrunner for the presidency. What makes this forecast even more critical are the swing states, where Trump is projected to dominate key battlegrounds that could ultimately decide the election. The polling suggests that Trump is leading Harris in several states that were fiercely contested in the 2020 election. Here’s a breakdown of the numbers: Pennsylvania: Trump 65% – Harris 35% Michigan: Trump 55% – Harris 45% Wisconsin: Trump 53% – Harris 47% Arizona: Trump 77% – Harris 23% North Carolina: Trump 76% – Harris 24% Georgia: Trump 69% – Harris 31% Nevada: Trump 61% – Harris 39% for rest, go to... https://lnkd.in/g7ySZmVn

What are we going to wake up to tomorrow? The short answer is probably not very much - in 2020, it took until Saturday for the Associated Press to say Joe Biden had won. The Presidential election is a toss up with the usual indicators pointing in different directions. Harris has a small lead in the national polls, but not enough to be confident of winning in the Electoral College. Trump is ahead in four of the seven swing states, but if Harris wins the three she is ahead in she would just win. The million dollar question is whether the polls are right? The pollsters adjusted their methodology post-2020 when they over-estimated President Biden’s lead, but until we know this year's result we won’t know whether they over-adjusted, under-adjusted or got it spot on. And in the last few days there's definitely been some ‘herding’ going on (manipulation of the numbers to avoid anything that deviates too far from the mean). Betting markets and polling on whether the country is headed in the right direction - historically a good indicator of who will win - favour Trump. The strength of the S&P 500 and polling on how enthusiastic both parties’ supporters are about voting and on the net favourability of the candidates - also historically good indicators - favour Harris. Harris has also out-fundraised Trump, and because she has more money she has more staff in the swing states - Democrats are hoping that will give her a better Get Out The Vote operation. Finally the Democrats are taking encouragement from the early voting data because in some states women make up a higher proportion of those who have voted than they did in 2020. So why are these indicators pointing in different directions? Because this is an election the Republicans should win easily - incumbents are struggling all over the world right now (think Sunak, Macron, Scholz, Trudeau) - but they have made it close by selecting Donald Trump as their candidate. I expect Trump to win Arizona and Georgia and Harris to win Michigan and Wisconsin. Nevada, North Carolina and Pennsylvania are the key ones to watch, particularly the latter because it has the most Electoral College votes. One final thought: don't just focus on the Presidential election - there's a big difference between a Trump Presidency with a Republican Senate and House and therefore few constraints on what he can do, and a divided government. The Republicans are highly likely to gain the Senate because of the seats up for election this year (they should pick up seats in Montana and West Virginia and a few others if Trump wins), but the House will be very close - and many of the marginal districts are in states like California and New York that are not battlegrounds for the Presidential election. All of which means the two most likely outcomes are a Republican clean sweep - Donald Trump as President with a Republican Senate and a Republican House - and Kamala Harris as President with a Republican Senate and a Democrat House.