The Tuttle Group at CrossCountry Mortgage

We saw bonds rally last week, and mortgage rates ticked down about 0.125%. Two of the big things that influenced rates were the Fed meeting minutes and the Existing Home Sales report.? ? The big takeaway? The Fed is planning to end its balance sheet runoff mid-2025. That means they’ll stop letting mortgage-backed securities and treasuries roll off and start reinvesting, which could help stabilize rates. The market reacted positively to this news, and we saw bonds improve.? The Fed also expressed optimism about inflation trends, despite the hot January inflation report. They noted seasonal adjustments often make January numbers look worse than they really are—so the broader trend still looks good. Now, let’s talk home prices and sales nationally.? CoreLogic reported home prices rose 4.5% in 2024. Redfin says total U.S. home values jumped 5%. Bottom line? The market is holding strong.? Existing Home Sales fell 4.9% in January, but that reflects buyers shopping in November and December—typically slower months. Inventory is up 16.8% from last year but still well below pre-pandemic levels, meaning supply remains tight. How does Texas compare to National Trends?? Texas inventory is up 22% compared to 17% nationally, but a lot of that is new construction, which isn’t move-in ready yet. Home values here are flat year-over-year. However, Texas is thriving:? Population up 6.2% in the last 5 yrs? Incomes up 22.8%, making price increases easier to absorb? Median home prices down just 1.3%, while the U.S. average was down 1.68% What does this mean for you?? If you’re buying in Texas, you’re in a strong position. More inventory means better opportunities, and if rates dip further, more buyers will jump back in—pushing prices up again.?Now’s a great time to get ahead of the market. Want to stand out?? Get FastTrack Approved. This is a clear to close approval except for appraisal, meaning you can close in 15 days or less and waive financing contingencies—making your offer way more attractive. Are you interested in more content like this, subscribe to our channel: https://lnkd.in/gZr6kNma

Hey everyone, Andy Tuttle here with The Tuttle Group, bringing you this week’s market update! ? Let’s dive into what’s happening with interest rates, home buying, and how it all affects you. ? Last week, we talked about how the January jobs report could move interest rates. Strong jobs? Rates go up. Weak jobs? Rates go down. ? So, what happened? The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported 143,000 new jobs- below the 170,000 jobs estimate. But revisions from past months added another 100,000 jobs, which balanced things out. ? Then the media made a fuss over wages jumping 0.5%- which could be inflationary, and That’s why Bonds sold off and rates ticked up. ? But let’s dig deeper: ? Hours worked dropped from .2 hours per week ? Average weekly earnings were Up just 0.2%- not exactly a wage boom ? Adjusting for lost hours, it’s like the economy lost nearly 1 million jobs in output. Unemployment dropped as well from 4.1% to 4%, but hold up—there’s a catch. The labor force grew by 2.2 million people, mostly due to new census data. ? Over 2 million new workers were added from immigration, skewing the numbers. And remember—the BLS only surveys 27% of employers. Low response rates, especially from struggling businesses, could mean future revisions. ? Bottom line: The report had mixed signals—some strength, some weakness. The Bond market reacted negatively, but things could settle down, and we’ll be the first to tell you if they do. ? Alright, let’s talk inflation- because when it drops, mortgage rates generally follow. The Fed’s target is 2% inflation. And the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge is The Consumer Price Index (CPI). and that new report drops on Wednesday. ? So what are we expecting? ? Headline inflation (includes food & energy) should land in a range that keeps the year-over-year rate at 2.9%. ? Core inflation (excludes food & energy) is expected at 0.3% month-over-month, which could drop the yearly number from 3.2% to 3.1%. ? But here’s why we might see even better numbers: Shelter costs—46% of core CPI—are finally cooling off. This has been the sticky part keeping inflation high. Now that it’s catching up with reality, we could see inflation come in lower than expected and closer to the Fed’s 2% target. ? Bottom line: If CPI comes in cool, mortgage rates could improve. If not, we’re stuck in this range a little longer. Either way, we’ll break it all down for you, so stay tuned for more updates on that. ? Here’s the Game Plan: ? Under contract? Start the week floating, but watch Wednesday’s CPI. ? House hunting or thinking about refinancing? Rates are trending in your favor, but expect some volatility- just like that family game night that always gets out of hand. We’ll keep you posted! If you like this content and want to learn more, check out this video on my channel: https://lnkd.in/gYutBmvm ? And as always, Be the Buffalo!

The November jobs report came out, and while it shows 227K new jobs, most of the gains came from temporary factors, like recovering from strikes and storms. Now, here’s where it impacts you as a homebuyer: the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2%, but there’s some hidden weakness in the job market. More full-time and part-time jobs were lost than gained, and fewer people are staying in the workforce. Wage growth is slowing and means less inflation pressure which is good for interest rates. The bond market and mortgage rates liked the report’s softer details. That’s helping mortgage rates stay steady or even improve a bit. This could be a great time to lock or prepare to lock your rate, and explore your options while conditions are favorable. Now, for the big news on home equity: homeowners have dramatically higher net worth than renters—42x more! According to CoreLogic- home equity is on the rise. Homeowners with mortgages now have an average of $311K in equity—$200K of which is tappable. Nationwide, U.S. home equity has hit a staggering $17.5 trillion, with fewer homes underwater than ever—just 1% of owned homes. Housing is a powerful wealth-building tool, and the data continues to prove it. Here’s the takeaway: Projections show home values are expected to rise 3.8% next year and over 27% in the next five years. Housing remains one of the best investments you can make. If you’re ready to start building wealth through homeownership, let’s connect!

Today we celebrate our Veterans. One way we honor our heroes and their families is by teaching them about some the home loan benefits available to them. Thank you all for your service. https://lnkd.in/gSK-yCnM

The bond market is showing a concerning trend, with bond prices dropping significantly and rates increasing. In 2022 and 2023, rates peaked in October but subsequently fell back to pre-October levels. This year, while prices have decreased and rates have risen again, there’s potential for a similar drop based on past patterns. This week is light in terms of news, but the following weeks will bring important market data. For homebuyers, the market is more favorable, with homes staying on the market longer and sellers more willing to negotiate. Now is a great time to consider our Inflation Buster program, the 2/1 Buydown. This loan program buys down your rate for the next two years, allowing you to get the home you want at a better price and ideally bridge the gap between the rates anticipated in coming years and those currently available. If you're considering refinancing, it's crucial to have a target rate in mind so you can act quickly when opportunities arise. Despite current market conditions, we know a solid strategy leads to success in any market. The Tuttle Group is always here for you when you're ready, and just a call, text or email away. Learn More: https://lnkd.in/gP4m3kfT

Here's a summary of this week's market update: https://lnkd.in/gvCvXzap Market Trends: Both stocks and bonds are down, with mortgage rates rising about 0.5% since September 17th, following the Federal Reserve meeting. As we've been saying, the Fed lowering rates doesn't always lead to lower mortgage rates; often, they move in the opposite direction. A stronger jobs report last Friday contributed to a further 0.25% increase in mortgage rates. Rate Lock: If you locked in your rate in the past few weeks, you’re protected from the recent spike. If unsure about your lock status, contact your lender. If you've been working with us, don't worry, we've got you. Economic Calendar: This week features significant Fed speeches on inflation and key reports like the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI), which could influence mortgage rates. Buying Tips: The markets have shifted to more of a buyers market and Sellers are more open to negotiation. Consider the "Inflation Buster" program for potential savings on mortgage rates if you negotiate seller-paid costs. Refinancing Advice: If you missed the recent opportunity to refinance, establish a target or strike rate to be ready for the next market shift. To help determine your strike rate, visit LoanWellnessCheck.com. The market may be volatile, but with proper strategies and support, you can succeed in any conditions. We are always in your corner and we're only a call or text away at 972-505-2142.

It’s a busy week. The JOLTS report regarding job openings comes out tomorrow, the ADP report on Wednesday and the official monthly Jobs Report on Friday. And we have the International Longshoreman’s Association (ILA) strike set to go into effect tomorrow, Tuesday Sept 30th at 12:01a. There is a lot to cover so let’s get into it. First let’s discuss the strike that does appear is going to happen. The ILA is the largest union in North America and would impact some of the largest ports - roughly 50% of US imports. Many major retailers like Walmart, and roughly 1/3 of car imports, could be heavily impacted… These type of supply chain issues were a major contributor to higher inflation during covid and they could be again if this doesn’t get resolved quickly. That is not great news for mortgage rates or the economy in the short term. The White House already issued an official statement saying they don’t plan on invoking the Taft-Hartley Act (which would keep union employees working during negotiations), so the only other option is for an agreement to be reached between the two parties. This may take a while and it is estimated to cost the US $6 billion per day in economic activity until its resolved. It could also cause emptier shelves at your local grocery and retail stores so plan accordingly. Looking at this week's loaded economic calendar, the markets are expecting tamer numbers for Job openings, the ADP, and official Jobs Reports this week. Now If these reports come in even weaker than expected, or there are more negative revisions to previous numbers, we could see a temporary improvement in mortgage interest rates. However, there is more pressure this week for higher rates. We locked many of our clients in the last few days that have closings in October. If you’re just going under contract for a 30-day or less closing, you’re in a good position to lock as well. Rates have improved a full point in the last few months. Like we have been saying lately, Buckle up. It may be a bumpy ride, but don’t worry, with a great team and strategy you can win in any market. The key is to prepare and get your team together weeks BEFORE you find a home. Get “Offer Ready”. That’s how you get the edge in a market like this. We’re in your corner and we’ll help: get you the right Realtor to get you the right home for the right price and we’ll get you the right home loan at the right time so you can feel confident you have made the right decision. https://lnkd.in/gBNzBjfe

The FED cut the rate .5% and made some policy and economic projections that the market didn't love. Before the markets can fully digest that, we have another big week of data this week. What should you do in the wake of all this news? I cover that and offer a couple suggestions on how to navigate the current and upcoming market in this week's Market Update. As always, I hope it provides some valuable insight, regardless of your home buying, refinancing or selling plans. https://lnkd.in/gf_emnkM

The FED meeting is tomorrow and the policy update is this Wednesday. There is now a reasonable possibility they will cut the rate .5% instead of .25% There is a new Realtor.com survey out and Fannie Mae just released their new Home Price Expectation survey. What does this mean if you're considering buying, listing your home, or trying to time a refinance? I break that down in this week's Market Update. As always, I hope it provides some valuable insight, regardless of your home buying, refinancing or selling plans: https://lnkd.in/gNHFCfhp

Weekly Market Update for the week of September 10th. We're already seeing some relief to mortgage interest rates. Lets talk about the current market, what to expect over the next month, and make sure you are ready to seize whatever opportunities crop up in the coming weeks. https://lnkd.in/gEsjsbrA