The Terry Group

The latest UN population projections reveal a world on the cusp of a stunning demographic transformation. The global baby bust continues to deepen, countries almost everywhere are aging, and a growing number face long-term demographic decline. To read more about the coming global demographic transformation, as well as the daunting social, economic, and geopolitical challenges it poses, read our newest?Vantage Point.

What does the future hold for value-based care (VBC) models??Join Terry Health’s Kevin Dotson, who will be moderating what is sure to be a fascinating session “Specialty VBC - The Next Frontier” on June 24th at the upcoming 2024 Society of Actuaries Health Meeting.

The International Actuarial Association hosted Terry Health’s Yi-Ling Lin as a panelist earlier this week to discuss the future of population change at its “Looking to the Future” Town Hall in Seoul.?

Perhaps you have noticed that our own Richard Jackson has been thoughtfully analyzing the stunning drop in fertility rates around the world, including the US and (perhaps most precipitously) South Korea, over the last couple of months.??If so, it’s probably no surprise to you that the The Wall Street Journal interviewed Richard when they reported on this cautionary phenomenon last week.?Check out what he had to say.

Many studies have shown that appropriate use of primary care services improves health outcomes and reduces healthcare costs. Yet despite its proven value, the United States devotes a much smaller share of each healthcare dollar to primary care than most developed countries do. Our healthcare system’s neglect of primary care is a particular problem in Medicare, whose fee schedule under-reimburses or entirely fails to reimburse many routine primary care services, including crucially important care coordination. New bipartisan legislation, known as the Pay PCPs Act of 2024, seeks to remedy this by encouraging CMS to adopt “hybrid payments” for primary care providers that would combine capitated and value-based payments for under-reimbursed services with fee-for-service payments for other services. According to the bill’s sponsors, Senators Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI) and Bill Cassidy (R-LA),?the payment model would ensure primary care providers a more predictable revenue stream, facilitating better integrated care that will improve quality while reducing costs.

According to new CDC data, the U.S. total fertility rate (TFR), a measure of average lifetime births per woman, resumed its decline in 2023, falling to an all-time historical low of 1.62. The drop more than erased a post-pandemic uptick in the TFR that some experts hoped might herald a turnaround in U.S. birthrates, which have been falling almost continuously since the Great Recession. Now it looks more and more like low fertility is here to stay. To learn more about the latest fertility numbers and what they mean for America’s future, read our newest Vantage Point.

According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the U.S. total fertility rate (TFR), a measure of average lifetime births per woman,?fell to 1.62 in 2023, an all-time historical low. The announcement dashed hopes that a modest post-pandemic uptick in the TFR in 2021 and 2022 might herald a turnaround in birthrates, which first began falling in the wake of the Great Recession. Now it looks more and more like low fertility is here to stay. Stay tuned for more from The Terry Group next week on the new fertility numbers and what they mean for America’s future.

LAST CHANCE TO REGISTER Tomorrow?Kevin Dotson and?Munzoor Shaikh share data-driven insights on value-based care. Register through the link below. https://lnkd.in/g4FW-sYf

Interested in value-based care (VBC)? Learn the latest perspectives from both payers and providers on pain points and areas of strength. Join us May 7 to learn more. Register below.

Amid the shift to value-based care, CMS continues its push to move all Medicare beneficiaries and most Medicaid beneficiaries to accountable care relationships by 2030. Many models have centered on primary care, but there is a growing effort to integrate specialty and primary care. In a new proposed rule issued earlier this month, CMS introduced the Transforming Episode Accountability Model (TEAM), a mandatory model to test how episode-based payments could reduce Medicare expenses and preserve or improve quality of care for Medicare beneficiaries. Through this model, CMS encourages providers to build integrated teams for better coordination and transitions of care across five common and costly procedures, with the goal of reducing readmissions and emergency department use.