Stepmark Partners

Amidst the Q3 earnings season and persistent high interest rates, Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicates rate cuts are still on the horizon, but there's no rush to implement them. President-elect Donald Trump continues his “daily“ appointment routine by tapping billionaire Howard Lutnick as Commerce Secretary and the search for Treasury Secretary drags on with WSJ reporting that Trump is considering Kevin Warsh with the understanding he may later be nominated to lead the Federal Reserve. Trump's DOGE appointees, Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy, have expressed support for abolishing the Department of Education. In a historic move, the DOJ is pushing for Google to sell its Chrome browser and to restrict its Android mobile OS, potentially reshaping the tech landscape. In the business world, Super Micro's stock rebounded 31% after appointing BDO as its new auditor and submitted a plan to Nasdaq detailing its efforts to regain compliance with the exchange after EY’s resignation last month. Meanwhile, Apple is directly selling ads in Apple News for the first time. "In 8 days, ChatGPT will celebrate the 2nd anniversary of its public debut" As 2024 comes to an end, National Geographic releases its Pictures of the Year: https://lnkd.in/gm-Y4K5s // Top 5 AI highlights // [1] ?? Elon Musk's xAI is securing $5 billion in funding, valuing the company at $50 billion. The funds, supported by Qatar Investment Authority and investors like Sequoia Capital and Andreessen Horowitz, will be used to procure an additional 100,000 Nvidia chips to transform the Memphis Colossus into a unified 200,000 H100/H200 training cluster. Read: https://lnkd.in/gEfWEMTv [2] ?? Perplexity launched a shopping hub to challenge Google's search dominance. The new feature offers product cards with visuals in response to shopping queries, powered by integrations like Shopify. More at: https://lnkd.in/gjsnP6J5 [3] ?? DeepSeek, a Chinese AI Lab, has launched the R1-Lite-Preview, a high-performance reasoning-focused language model available through its DeepSeek Chat. This could lead to more US restrictions on AI chips. Additional details: https://lnkd.in/g6vhynhs [4] ?? Mistral AI has significantly upgraded its free AI platform with web search, image generation, and visual analysis capabilities. Mistral's Le Chat now rivals or surpasses paid offerings from major competitors like ChatGPT and Perplexity. This move further fuels the debate on Sovereign AI. Click here to learn more: https://lnkd.in/gvvWHE7P [5] ??At the Ignite conference, Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella emphasized AI’s rapid growth, highlighting key shifts like multimodal interfaces and enhanced reasoning and noted that its capabilities “double every six months or so.”. Meanwhile, Microsoft partner d-Matrix unveiled Corsair, a GPU alternative for AI inference, promising faster token processing and improved efficiency for large language models in data centers. Read more https://lnkd.in/gZz-j3Xi and https://lnkd.in/gi-4wDUS

Stocks rose consecutively post-election until Tuesday, Bitcoin topped $90,000 for the first time Wednesday as a result of Trump’s pro-crypto agenda, and the U.S. dollar jumped to a one-year high. The October CPI reports a 0.3% increase over last month raising the 12-month core CPI rate by 3.3%, and the October PPI reports a +2.4% YoY rise. As Trump assembles his second-term team, he announced Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy to co-lead the new Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), a slight nod to the meme cryptocurrency. Tesla, following Trump’s re-election, reaches its trillion-dollar label again. Lately, as a result of setbacks in performance for the next version of ChatGPT, Claude, and other LLM models, developers have shifted focus to post-training performance rather than pre-training performances. "In 15 days, ChatGPT will celebrate the 2nd anniversary of its public debut" Top 5 AI highlights: [1] ?? OpenAI's new AI agent, Operator, which is expected to be launched in January, signals a shift toward action-oriented tools—a direct competitor to Claude Computer Use, which was released 3 weeks ago. With traditional LLMs facing setbacks, developers are pursuing agents that handle real tasks, like booking flights, on behalf of users. This showcases OpenAI’s effort to deliver practical, hands-on AI applications. See more: https://lnkd.in/gYGJkNN5 [2] ?? X is rolling out its AI chatbot Grok to free users. Users can make limited queries with the Grok-2 models and access image analysis. This expansion aims to increase Grok’s user base and enhance competition with other models. TechCrunch: https://lnkd.in/gKZuMjGD [3] ?? Google’s NotebookLM, the AI-powered note-taking service, has seen explosive growth with user numbers jumping 300% in September alone and 201% in October. Launched in July 2023, the tool helps users collect and analyze research data in summary and podcast form, making it popular among students and researchers. Details: https://lnkd.in/gMXqD7wt [4] ?? Amazon Web Services (AWS) is offering $110 million in credits for researchers to use its custom AI chip, Trainium, in cloud data centers. In addition, it plans to publish Trianium’s instruction set architecture so customers can program the chips directly which is what Nvidia’s chips need. Lastly, Amazon will likely launch its in-house AI inferencing chip Inferentia later this year. Read more: https://lnkd.in/gThWmAMN [5] ?? Salesforce plans to hire 1,000+ workers to sell its new generative AI product, Agentforce, which launched two weeks ago. The tool, priced at $2 per conversation, automates tasks like customer support and sales development, competing with companies like Microsoft and ServiceNow. Bloomberg: https://lnkd.in/gk24XY3g?

With one of the most debated, well-funded presidential elections, former President Donald Trump has won the U.S. election, becoming the 47th President.?US stocks soared on Wednesday after Trump’s clear victory. The?Fed made a 25 basis point cut?on Thursday and?jobless claims rose by 3,000 to 221,000?due to the impact of recent storms. In other news, after nearly two months on strike, around?33,000 Boeing employees accepted a new contract?and?Novo Nordisk released two new drugs?to achieve unprecedented weight loss of up to 25%. And now in November, Mariah Carey has officially kicked off the holiday season, marking the?30th anniversary of the classic "All I Want for Christmas Is You." Top 5 AI highlights [1] ??Generative AI is increasingly replacing customer service roles, with companies like Klarna and T-Mobile leading adoption. T-Mobile’s $100 million contract with OpenAI aims to develop IntentCX, an AI platform capable of autonomously handling customer interactions. The Information： https://lnkd.in/eErPbtun? [2] ?KKR anticipates global data center spending to reach $250 billion annually, with U.S. capacity projected to double or triple in 3-4 years, led by the demand of AI and cloud computing. Recently, KKR secured a $50 billion AI infrastructure deal with Energy Capital Partners and is investing in power generation and transmission infrastructure as well. Bloomberg: https://lnkd.in/e9Hu4x7M [3] ?? Disney has established the Office of Technology Enablement, led by CTO Jamie Voris, to coordinate AI and mixed reality initiatives across its film, television, and theme park divisions. This new unit, set to grow to 100 employees, reflects Disney’s commitment to exploring emerging technologies responsibly. Eddie Drake succeeds Voris as studio CTO. Reuters: https://lnkd.in/eN58ti6F [4] ?? San Francisco-based robotics startup Physical Intelligence raised $400 million at a $2.4 billion valuation, backed by investors like Jeff Bezos and OpenAI. With a team of Tesla and Google DeepMind alumni, the company focuses on integrating general-purpose AI into robotics. CNBC: https://lnkd.in/gnVZWC2U [5] ??? Anthropic, Meta, and OpenAI adjust policies to supply AI tools for U.S. military and intelligence, aiming to bolster national defense capabilities amid China’s rapid tech rise. Despite ethical pushback and employee protests, these partnerships reflect Silicon Valley’s increasing role in defense, prioritizing democratic interests in AI development and security. Washington Post: https://lnkd.in/epXuTuUv

As daylight saving time ends Sunday and Election Day nears, markets bet on a "soft landing" for the U.S. economy. The economy grew 2.8% in Q3, driven by consumer spending (+3.7%), exports (+8.9%), and federal spending (+9.7%). Nonfarm payroll increased by 12,000 in October compared to the estimated 100,000 due to the hurricanes and the Boeing strike. Five of Magnificent 7 released mixed earnings this week. Oil prices fell over 5% after Israeli strikes, and the Biden administration plans new restrictions on U.S. AI Investments in China. The NYSE seeks to extend NYSE Arca trading to 22 hours daily, pending SEC approval. // Top 5 AI highlights // [1] ?? OpenAI’s ChatGPT Search feature brings real-time information with in-line citations to its users, positioning it as a competitor to Google and Perplexity, which is reported to raise over $500 million at a new valuation of $9 billion. Meta is rumored to be developing its own AI search engine for Instagram and Facebook aiming to reduce reliance on Google and Microsoft by building its web crawler and expanding data and location tools. More on Bloomberg: https://lnkd.in/eZjMvdJH?and Reuters: https://lnkd.in/gqUFNqzT [2] ?? “Apple Intelligence” this week introduced generative AI across iPhone, iPad, and Mac, enhancing user experiences with features like refined writing tools, intelligent photo search, and a more conversational Siri. Privacy-focused, Apple integrates on-device processing and Private Cloud computing, ensuring data security as well. https://lnkd.in/geBDZnd4 [3] ?? Elon Musk's xAI seeks to raise several billion dollars in a funding round that could value it up to $40 billion, a surge from its prior valuation of $24 billion just a few months ago when it raised $6 billion. WSJ: https://lnkd.in/dbw-BAJZ [4] ?? AI agents are revolutionizing employee onboarding, making it smoother, smarter, and customizable for over two-thirds of companies from a survey. Additionally, LinkedIn’s new Hiring Assistant automates tasks from job descriptions to candidate engagement, leveraging OpenAI’s technology to streamline recruitment. CNBC: https://lnkd.in/gqqk7_wh and TechCrunch: https://lnkd.in/dUuWEZ6m [5] ?? AI’s computing demands could lead to e-waste of up to 2.5 million tons annually by 2030, the equivalent of 10 billion iPhones. Goldman Institute highlights the need for the U.S. to strategically select global partners for data center outsourcing. This significant demand for data centers could challenge Europe’s decarbonization efforts, prompting major investment collaborations like KKR and ECP’s $50B deal to scale sustainable power infrastructure. CNBC: https://lnkd.in/gFQTnUYK?and ESG news: https://lnkd.in/dYezsfYZ?

?? Demystifying M&A: Inside Our Recent M&A Webinar We recently hosted a lunch webinar designed for Cherubic Ventures' portfolio companies. A big thank you to Cherubic's Partner and Head of US Operations Danielle Dudum for organizing the event. Our Webinar focused on demystifying the basics of mergers and acquisitions (M&A) for founders and executives. We understand that for many, the concept of an M&A transaction might seem complex or far off in the future. However, gaining a foundational understanding can be extremely valuable, whether you're preparing for growth, considering a strategic partnership, or simply exploring the potential paths your business might take. ?? Key insights we unpacked: 1. ?? The Buyer Landscape ? Strategic buyers seeking market dominance ? Financial buyers hunting for opportunities ? Hybrid buyers leveraging industry portfolios 2. ?? Why Companies Acquire ? New market conquest ? Game-changing tech & IP ? Top talent acquisition ? Strategic competitive edge 3. ?? Valuation Drivers ? Perfect market timing ? Strategic buyer alignment ? Growth trajectory ? Revenue strength 4. ? Success Preparation ? Clean, accurate financials ? Data-driven operations ? Sustainable growth engine ?? Ready to learn more?? Access the webinar deck here: https://lnkd.in/ezJzKBaA Connect with us: [email protected] | [email protected] #MergersAndAcquisitions #VentureCapital #StartupStrategy #BusinessGrowth

With less than two weeks away from the election, the market seems to be positioning their bets on a potential Trump victory. On the other hand, Bill Gates revealed a donation for Kamala Harris, and Jamie Dimon has privately hinted at possible support for Harris. The IRS announced new federal income tax brackets and standard deductions for 2025. In other markets, T. Rowe Price predicts 10-year Treasury yields could reach 5% in 6 months due to increasing inflation expectations. Goldman Sachs forecasts S&P 500 annual returns could shrink to 3% over the next decade, a view that JP Morgan sees as overly pessimistic. In other news, McDonald's shares dropped after an E. coli outbreak linked to its Quarter Pounders, leading to 10 hospitalizations and one death. Boeing machinists rejected a contract proposal, with 64% voting against it, extending a weeks-long strike and pushing for major concessions in ongoing negotiations. // Top 5 AI highlights // [1]? ??? Anthropic's latest feature allows Claude to control your desktop. We’re getting one step closer to agentic AI. Watch it apply to jobs automatically: https://lnkd.in/gVN6Q5Nm. Read at https://lnkd.in/gnBXASBb [2] ??? Perplexity AI seeks another funding round, this time valuing it as high as $9 billion, up from $3 billion in June. A day after the funding announcement, Perplexity was hit with a lawsuit by News Corp-owned Dow Jones, the Wall Street Journal, and the New York Post, alleging copyright infringement, adding to existing plagiarism accusations from The New York Times. More at https://lnkd.in/gEUpkEfC [3] ?? Former OpenAI executive Mira Murati is reportedly launching her own AI startup, aiming to raise $100 million. The company will focus on developing proprietary AI models capable of competing with existing systems like ChatGPT. Murati's sudden resignation from OpenAI in September follows governance changes and adds her to the list of former executives launching AI startups, like Safe Superintelligence. Details: https://lnkd.in/gcJ3GcXz [4] ?? OpenAI and Microsoft hire investment banks to negotiate equity stakes as OpenAI transitions from a nonprofit to a $157 billion for-profit company. More from the WSJ at https://lnkd.in/gESY8rS8 [5] ?? Warning for parents of teens: AI companionship apps can be as addictive and dangerous as social media. Teen takes his own life after spending months chatting with an AI chatbot. NYT: https://lnkd.in/gEPmYQCn.

This week saw significant developments across various sectors. The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) remained flat, supporting JPMorgan's outlook for a "soft landing" for the economy. Mortgage rates on 30-year fixed loans rose to 6.52%, up 16 points, leading to steep drops in home-purchase. United Airlines' stock surged 12.4% following strong earnings and a $1.5 billion buyback announcement. Alarming call for subscription companies, the FTC's new "click to cancel" rule, effective in 180 days, will make subscription cancellations easier. In the corporate world, Uber is reportedly considering a bid for Expedia. Additionally, PepsiCo acquired Siete Foods for $1.2 billion, expecting to finalize by mid-2025. Last but not least, Hurricanes Milton & Helene are expected to cause $50B of losses each, having devastated the southern U.S. states last week. // Top 5 AI highlights // [1] ?? US mulls expanding AI chip export bans to Saudi Arabia and UAE, following China restrictions. This targets countries with major AI investments, like Saudi's $40B fund. Stepmark warrants close monitoring, as it could reshape the global AI hardware market and impact Cerebras' IPO plans, given that UAE-based G42 accounts for over 83% and 87% of revenue in FY 2023 and 6 months ended June 2024, respectively. Read at https://lnkd.in/gxY7XCJE. [2] ?Following Microsoft's partnership with Constellation Energy to reopen Three Mile Island, Google and AWS invest in small modular nuclear reactors for data centers and AI. Google plans 7 reactors with Kairos Power by 2030. AWS invests $500M+ with Dominion Energy and Energy Northwest. Amazon's Climate Fund led X-energy's $500M Series C-1. AI's energy demands prompt power impact monitoring. More at https://lnkd.in/gnyuXExE and https://lnkd.in/gKaziaVc. [3]??The U.K. has secured $8.23 billion from U.S. tech giants like ServiceNow and CoreWeave to enhance its AI and data infrastructure by 2028. As sovereign AI gains traction, this calls into question whether investments should prioritize domestic AI development over foreign projects, highlighting the need to balance corporate growth with national strategic concerns in AI development. Details at https://lnkd.in/gGRCQa_p. [4] ?? TSMC stock surged 9.8% after strong Q3 results, with revenue up 36% and profit up 54%, signaling robust AI chip demand. NVIDIA, TSMC's key customer, is expected to report its earnings on November 20th. This follows our reporting last week that Nvidia’s Blackwell GPU is completely sold out for the next 12 months. See more https://lnkd.in/gsg9zwuz. [5] ??Google’s AI is advancing in Africa, aiding speech impairments, healthcare, and education. While promising, challenges like local language support and data privacy persist. Despite its potential to drive development, AI risks widening inequalities as wealthier nations dominate, raising concerns over fair access and long-term impacts. Details on FT: https://lnkd.in/e9qcfVqu?

Before we begin, we hope our Florida friends stay strong. Hurricane Milton updates here: https://lnkd.in/eUrwSiDj. Reuters reports insurers face $100B+ in damages. The 10-year US Treasury yield climbed to 4% following strong economic indicators. September saw 254,000 new jobs, 4.1% unemployment, and steady wage growth. This robust economy may delay Fed rate cuts. CPI rose 2.4% YoY, below August's 2.5%. Oil prices spiked 13% over 11 days but dropped as Israel-Iran tensions didn't escalate. TD Bank faces $3B+ in fines and US growth restrictions. Amazon and Microsoft partner with nuclear plants for data centers. 14 state AGs sued TikTok over minor safety and data collection. Tesla unveiled its Robotaxi. Q3 earnings season begins with major banks reporting today. We have our earnings calendar inserted below. // Top 5 AI highlights // [1] ??Geoffrey Hinton and John Hopfield win the Nobel Prize in Physics for pioneering work on machine learning. Hinton, called the "Godfather of AI," developed neural networks crucial for AI systems. Hopfield's network innovations recreate patterns from incomplete data. David Baker, Demis Hassabis, and John Jumper won the Nobel Prize in Chemistry for using AI to solve protein structures. Details from BBC: https://lnkd.in/grGMcQc6 and CNN: https://lnkd.in/eTX68xbz [2] ?? Kobold Metals, an AI-driven mineral exploration startup, raised $491M out of a $527M round. Backed by Bill Gates, Jeff Bezos, and firms like Andreessen Horowitz, Kobold aims for a $2B valuation. Their recent discovery of a massive copper deposit in Zambia underscores their rapid growth. More on Pitchbook: https://lnkd.in/g2yYup8B [3] ??OpenAI, after raising $6.6B, is reducing reliance on Microsoft’s data centers. Concerns over insufficient computing power prompted a deal with Oracle to lease one of the largest data centers in Texas, hosting hundreds of thousands of Nvidia chips. However, recent financial documents show that its annual losses could reach $14B in 2026, almost triple the loss projected in 2024. Read on The Information: https://lnkd.in/gARufRry and on CNBC: https://lnkd.in/etzcQDpd?? [4] ??AMD CEO Lisa Su has revised the projected global AI chip market value to over $500 billion by 2028, up 25% from the previous $400 billion forecast. This new target, starting from a $45 billion market in 2023, is a 60% year-over-year growth for the five consecutive years. Read more on CNBC: https://lnkd.in/dfx8dxa4 [5] ?? Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang announced that the company's latest chip, Blackwell, unveiled earlier this year, is sold out for the next 12 months. Notably, Huang holds the record for being the longest-serving founder CEO of a publicly traded company. Full details on here: https://lnkd.in/df7jPmsy

This week, Fed Chair Powell signals two potential 25 basis point cuts. Surprisingly, job openings surged to 8.04 million in August, a three-month high, as ADP reports show U.S. private sector jobs grew by 143,000 last month, reversing a five-month slowdown trend. US Employers added 254,000 jobs and the unemployment rate fell to 4.1% for September. Oil prices surged this week due to escalations in the Middle East. Boeing considers raising $10 billion through new share issuance amid factory strikes. Dockworkers strike for the first time in 50 years, risking $5 billion in daily economic damage, ended Thursday afternoon. Former President Jimmy Carter celebrates his 100th birthday, defying expectations after 19 months in hospice care. In corporate news, private equity giant KKR is eyeing a major acquisition of the $5B semiconductor company ASMPT. Charles Schwab CEO Walt Bettinger announces to retire by the end of 2024. CVS Health is cutting 2,900 jobs, amid alleged considerations of a breakup. Top 5 AI highlights [1] ?? OpenAI secured $6.6B at a $157B valuation, with Thrive Capital leading a $1.25B investment with the option to invest another $1B at the current valuation next year if OpenAI reaches specific milestones. Projecting $11.6B in revenue by 2025, OpenAI faces internal tension between profit goals and public mission. OpenAI also launched Realtime API with context for fast, multimodal AI voice apps along with other features from OpenAI DevDay 2024.? More on Reuters: https://lnkd.in/eZ7fAcNP; FT: https://lnkd.in/eaaRBk4T; OpenAI: https://lnkd.in/escGDeVJ [2]??Poolside, an AI-powered software platform, raised $500 million in a Series B round led by Bain, with support from like eBay and Nvidia, valuing the company at $3 billion. Founded by former GitHub CTO Jason Warner and Eiso Kant, Poolside’s new funding will go towards improving its tech and expanding its reach. Details on TC. https://lnkd.in/e7jXYKiT [3] ?? AI chipmaker Cerebras Systems filed for Nasdaq IPO as "CBRS". Competing with Nvidia, it reported a $66.6M net loss on $136.4M in sales in H1 2024. Key customer G42 committed $1.43B in purchases by 2025. CNBC: https://lnkd.in/egxVNMTs and Jay’s take on X: https://lnkd.in/eB4NPTe6 [4] ?? Governor Gavin Newsom vetoed California's AI bill SB 1047, citing concerns about regulation based on model size rather than function. However, he signed AB 2013, which mandates algorithmic transparency for generative AI. These decisions reflect the ongoing debate about balancing innovation and regulation in the AI industry. CAGOV: https://lnkd.in/ecEygfzT [5]?? Microsoft’s finance leases for data centers have jumped to $108.4 billion, an increase of almost $100 billion in two years. The leases will start between 2025 to 2030, spreading payments over time, and affecting profits. Microsoft also spent $19 billion last quarter to boost its AI infrastructure, including a deal to restart the Three Mile Island nuclear plant. CNBC: https://lnkd.in/eqR6YqrQ

This week, Fed Chair Powell signals two potential 25 basis point cuts. Surprisingly, job openings surged to 8.04 million in August, a three-month high, as ADP reports show U.S. private sector jobs grew by 143,000 last month, reversing a five-month slowdown trend. US Employers added 254,000 jobs and the unemployment rate fell to 4.1% for September. Oil prices surged this week due to escalations in the Middle East. Boeing considers raising $10 billion through new share issuance amid factory strikes. Dockworkers strike for the first time in 50 years, risking $5 billion in daily economic damage, ended Thursday afternoon. Former President Jimmy Carter celebrates his 100th birthday, defying expectations after 19 months in hospice care. In corporate news, private equity giant KKR is eyeing a major acquisition of the $5B semiconductor company ASMPT. Charles Schwab CEO Walt Bettinger announces to retire by the end of 2024. CVS Health is cutting 2,900 jobs, amid alleged considerations of a breakup. Top 5 AI highlights [1] ?? OpenAI secured $6.6B at a $157B valuation, with Thrive Capital leading a $1.25B investment with the option to invest another $1B at the current valuation next year if OpenAI reaches specific milestones. Projecting $11.6B in revenue by 2025, OpenAI faces internal tension between profit goals and public mission. OpenAI also launched Realtime API with context for fast, multimodal AI voice apps along with other features from OpenAI DevDay 2024.? More on Reuters: https://lnkd.in/eZ7fAcNP; FT: https://lnkd.in/eaaRBk4T; OpenAI: https://lnkd.in/escGDeVJ [2]??Poolside, an AI-powered software platform, raised $500 million in a Series B round led by Bain, with support from like eBay and Nvidia, valuing the company at $3 billion. Founded by former GitHub CTO Jason Warner and Eiso Kant, Poolside’s new funding will go towards improving its tech and expanding its reach. Details on TC. https://lnkd.in/e7jXYKiT [3] ?? AI chipmaker Cerebras Systems filed for Nasdaq IPO as "CBRS". Competing with Nvidia, it reported a $66.6M net loss on $136.4M in sales in H1 2024. Key customer G42 committed $1.43B in purchases by 2025. CNBC: https://lnkd.in/egxVNMTs and Jay’s take on X: https://lnkd.in/eB4NPTe6 [4] ?? Governor Gavin Newsom vetoed California's AI bill SB 1047, citing concerns about regulation based on model size rather than function. However, he signed AB 2013, which mandates algorithmic transparency for generative AI. These decisions reflect the ongoing debate about balancing innovation and regulation in the AI industry. CAGOV: https://lnkd.in/ecEygfzT [5]?? Microsoft’s finance leases for data centers have jumped to $108.4 billion, an increase of almost $100 billion in two years. The leases will start between 2025 to 2030, spreading payments over time, and affecting profits. Microsoft also spent $19 billion last quarter to boost its AI infrastructure, including a deal to restart the Three Mile Island nuclear plant. CNBC: https://lnkd.in/eqR6YqrQ