Simple Reverse - Powered by GMFS Reverse Mortgage Weekly Interest Rate Update & Market Commentary (for the week ending 10/11/24):
The 10YR CMT has continued its upward movement this week, and as a result, we will see a significant increase in the 10YR CMT next week. This WILL RESULT IN A NEGATIVE CHANGE TO PRINCIPAL LIMITS and LOWER BENEFIT AMOUNTS?next week! We are looking at an increase of close to 23 bps, which would result in a 2 PLF factor increase in the rate for next week.?
The 10YR CMT currently sits at 3.83%, and we will see an increase of around 22-24 bps in the Expected Rate next week!?This will have a NEGATIVE IMPACT on the Expected Rate and will result in LOWER Principal Limits next week!??
This sounds like a repeat of last week, but we have another week of significantly increasing rates on the 10YR CMT. Continued rising rates, even after the recent FED rate cut, are being attributed to two primary factors. One, the markets are adjusting to the fact that rates are going to come down slower than initially anticipated after they aggressively priced in upcoming rate cuts; and after updated inflation figures were released.?
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers for August came in at 2.4%, slightly above estimates, still the lowest reading since February, 2021. Core CPI, which excludes the volatile food and energy prices, edged higher to 3.3%, also above expectations. Analysts believe these numbers are still consistent with gradually moderating inflation, but the path lower will likely be bumpy, at times slower than market expectations. These numbers should keep the FED on track to continue on its rate cutting path however.
Also, jobless claims came in above estimates this week at 258,000. This reading reflects a labor market that is normalizing, not collapsing, which analysts believe is supportive of continued growth and the "soft landing" narrative for the economy. A cooling labor market also leads to slower wage gains ahead, another sign on continued inflation easing. All in all, the economy continues to move as expected, but with those promises of a continued "bumpy ride" in the coming months!
This week, the 10YR CMT Index is 3.83%. Here is what the 10YR CMT has done this week, so we will see a significant increase in the 10YR CMT next week.
10YR CMT?????????????????????
10/7? ?10/8?? 10/9??? 10/10???? 10/11 (Intraday)
4.03 ?4.04 4.06 ?4.09 ?4.10
Based on the data from this week, we will see an INCREASE in the Expected Rate of around 22-24 bps next week. This INCREASE WILL HAVE A NEGATIVE IMPACT on the Principal Limits next week.?So, if you have applications to take, we suggest TAKING YOUR APPLICATIONS NOW SO THAT YOU CAN LOCK-IN HIGHER BENEFIT AMOUNTS NOW BEFORE THE RATES INCREASE FOR YOUR BORROWERS NEXT WEEK!! With the Columbus Day federal holiday on Monday, rates will not take effect until Wednesday, 10/16/24 for next week, so you do have some additional time to get applications taken!?