Can the National Rugby League’s Vegas Gamble Pay Off?
The NRL is rolling the dice in Vegas for a second straight year, doubling down on its US expansion strategy. Is this just an expensive marketing play, or the foundation for something bigger?
Sarah Wymer breaks it down...
Rugby league is an outlier in the US sports landscape, but on paper, the NRL has a product that should appeal to American fans. It’s fast, physical, and highly entertaining.
The challenge isn’t just grabbing attention, it’s converting casual curiosity into long-term fandom.
So, how do we measure whether this is more than just a one-off spectacle?
One key indicator is ticket sales and whether the audience expands beyond Australian expats and travelling fans.
2024: 23,000 tickets were sold in the US, but many went to Australian expats or tourists.
2025: 35,000 tickets have already been sold (estimated 50,000 total), and 25% of buyers are US-based across all 50 states. The strongest growth markets are California (20%), Nevada (12%), Texas, Florida, and New York. This suggests that interest is slowly moving beyond just Australian tourists, which is a crucial step toward long-term sustainability.
?? Key Metric: Will the share of US-based ticket buyers continue to grow beyond 2025?
Another major test is whether the NRL can turn this event into a valuable media property in the US.
In 2024, all games were stuck behind a cable paywall, limiting accessibility.
In 2025, the first-ever NRL game on free-to-air US television (Raiders vs. Warriors) will air live on FOX to 125 million households, alongside other games on Fox Sports 1 and FOX Soccer Plus. The Jillaroos’ Test match has been placed in prime time (7:15pm PST), a major win for women’s rugby league visibility in the US.
A shift to free-to-air signals that FOX Sports sees value in rugby league’s expansion - but networks will only continue backing it if the audience follows. Without strong viewership, long-term investment from US broadcasters and sponsors will be hard to justify.
?? Key Metric: Will free-to-air coverage significantly boost US viewership?
While selling out a weekend in Vegas is a great start, the real test lies in building something sustainable.
This is part 1 of a series. Part 2 will explore whether the NRL’s commercial and digital strategies can transform this into a long-term investment or if it will remain a standalone event working to gain traction in the US market.
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