RenewaFi

Is the $10/kW-month BESS toll a thing of the past? We'll be discussing this and other BESS-related topics on tomorrow's webinar. RenewaFi CEO Noam Yaffe will be joined by Gregory Hall from Equilibrium Energy and Jacob Steubing, CFA from Linea Energy. Register here: https://lnkd.in/e65PAmPj

?? Trying to figure out BESS toll pricing? ?? Don't miss our webinar next Wednesday. We're bringing together two leading market participants - as well as RenewaFi data - to discuss offtake trends for Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) in ERCOT. ? Gregory Hall, Director of Origination at Equilibrium Energy, will represent the buyer perspective, while Jacob Steubing, CFA, Chief Commercial Office at Linea Energy, will represent the seller perspective. ? Noam Yaffe, CEO of RenewaFi, will moderate the discussion and contribute insights from the RenewaFi platform. ? Join us on Wednesday, November 20th at 2:00pm ET. Register in the comments!

Even without the added uncertainty of a new federal administration, the renewables industry in ERCOT is already in flux due to a lack of consensus on load growth. A high load growth scenario would translate to a 10% increase in the current value of solar PPAs compared to a low growth scenario (see the left side of the image below). This is because the increased load would lead to higher midday prices when solar generates most. Since midday prices are not as relevant for wind, however, higher load growth would likely have a negligible effect on the current value of wind PPAs (see the right side of the image below). For context, our high load growth scenario assumes 148 GW of peak load with 115 GW of renewables and 49 GW of BESS by 2030, per ERCOT’s long term load forecast and interconnection queue from Summer ’24. Our low load growth scenario, in contrast, assumes 90 GW peak load with 85 GW of renewables by 2030, per ERCOT’s long term load forecast from January ‘24 and EIA’s renewables capacity forecast for ‘23.

The value of solar and wind PPAs increased by more than 20% in 2Q, only to lose those gains in 3Q, according to our composite PPA benchmarks.? ? The increase coincided with a formal announcement from ERCOT CEO Pablo Vegas that the grid operator expects an additional 40 GW of load growth by 2030. The expectation of increased demand likely pushed forward curves higher. ? Over the subsequent months, however, the market reverted its view. Two factors likely contributed to this. ? First, Texas experienced a relatively mild summer. Less volatility in the temperature meant less volatility in electricity prices and, in turn, a lower value for future electricity. ? Second, ERCOT released its long term load forecast, filling in the details for its higher load growth projection, which the market appears to have received with some skepticism. Indeed, many of the originators in our network doubt that all of the load growth predicted by ERCOT will materialize.? ? By the end of 3Q, our composite benchmarks for solar and wind PPAs were about the same as they were at the beginning of the year.?

Big thanks to Aurora Energy Research - North America for hosting such an insightful conference last week in New York! Given our companies' shared goal of advancing the energy transition, we were especially grateful for the opportunity to partner with you for this event. #AuroraEnergyTransitionForum Noam Yaffe Daniel Gladstone

That's a wrap on our inaugural #AuroraEnergyTransitionForum 2024! Thank you to everyone who attended and our premium partner Lazard and partners Kraken, Spearmint Energy, Milbank LLP, & RenewaFi. We hope to see you next year! #AuroraETF2025 ??

Several tier-one IPPs on the RenewaFi marketplace are seeking PPAs for operating solar projects. ? Three are looking for 2-year PPAs, with start dates in January 2025. ? Delivery options include South, West, and North hubs. ? Some are comfortable transacting on ISDAs. ? If interested, please contact us at [email protected].

The load growth predicted by ERCOT (peak load of 148 GW by 2030) would have massive implications for long-term solar, wind, and battery storage. We've spoken to several originators, however, who question whether all that load will actually materialize. What do you think? Vote below to see how others responded.

ERCOT’s latest load growth projections should be a major source of relief for solar originators. Our new “high load growth” scenario, which reflects ERCOT’s most recent long-term load forecast and interconnection queue data, shows positive signs for the long-term economics of solar energy in Texas. This is most clearly illustrated by looking at capture rates, which represent the percentage of value that a generation facility, such as solar or wind, is able to "capture" compared to the 24/7 (around-the-clock) value of energy. Originators have long feared that the saturation of solar would lead to steep declines in solar capture rates, as shown in the low load growth scenario below (the black line). But since ERCOT bumped up its demand forecast, solar capture rates now look like they might hold steady, as shown by the high load growth scenario below (the green line). The question is: will all this load growth actually materialize??

This promises to be a fantastic event, and we’re glad to be a part of it. Come join us.