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Join Raoul Pal as he answers questions from the audience and discusses what’s going on with the markets and a certain yellow fruit that everyone is waiting for… ??

Flying blind in these markets? That’s risky business ? But with #ProMacro, you’re not just getting reports—you’re getting a roadmap to navigate the chaos and direct access to our experts. Get free access until November 1 when you sign up for a free Real Vision membership https://rvtv.io/4f4wa8f

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Can you believe it? Real Vision is turning 10 this month ?? It feels like just yesterday we flipped the switch on “Real Vision Television,” but here we are a decade later... And this month, we're ringing in the milestone by celebrating YOU. We’ve lined up a full month of competitions, giveaways, discounts, and of course, a virtual birthday bash. Find out more here: https://rvtv.io/4dV6tpW

Have you ever wondered which wines Raoul Pal likes to drink during his LIVE AMAs? Check out this amazing compilation made by one of our #RVPlus members in Missouri https://lnkd.in/eKe4aRMC ?? JOIN the wine talk and contribute your #wine suggestions

Remember that "Macro Mondays" is THE show to watch every week in global macro! Big tech back in fashion with Kamalanomics? Out on Real Vision , YouTube and Podcast!

#MacroMondays - Is the U.S. Headed for a Recession? ft. Andreas Steno Larsen and Mikkel Rosenvold ?? KEY TAKEAWAYS: US Recession Indicators: The discussion highlights three key recession indicators - tax data, electricity output, and credit conditions. Monitoring these can provide insights into economic health. UK Real Wage Growth: Despite political uncertainties, UK consumers might regain confidence due to significant real wage growth, presenting a potential upside for the economy in the second half of the year. French Public Spending Risks: France's new coalition government plans substantial public spending, which could lead to fiscal indiscipline. Investors should keep an eye on France's budget targets and EU scrutiny. Gig Economy Impact: The rise of the gig economy complicates traditional economic indicators. Understanding its impact on employment and tax data is crucial for accurate economic analysis. AI's Economic Role: AI and data processing might drive increased electricity output. This could lead to higher productivity despite potential job losses, suggesting a nuanced impact of AI on the economy. Liquidity Trends: The US Treasury's increased spending in July and August could positively impact liquidity. Investors should consider this when making market decisions. Political Stability: The election outcomes in the UK and France have significant implications for economic policies and market sentiment. Stability in these regions can influence broader market trends. Watch the FULL episode on YouTube: https://lnkd.in/etvAhTuW #recession #macro #macroeconomics #useconomy #financialmarkets

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??? Liquidity cycles ??? Significance of central bank policies ??? Global debt refinancing dynamics. They explore how liquidity injections correlate with market behavior and how different economic factors, including government policies and demographic trends, shape this complex landscape. [5 key takeaways:] 1/ The "Everything Code" Thesis: Raoul Pal’s theory hinges on the debt refinancing cycle that started post-2008’s financial collapse. Liquidity influx, due to currency debasement, happens roughly every four years. Liquidity drives major bull markets in technology and cryptocurrency. 2/ Liquidity Hierarchy and Drivers: Mike Howell highlights the pyramid structure of liquidity, where central bank balance sheets form the apex, supported by offshore deposits and collateral's role in the shadow banking system. Key drivers include the Federal Reserve (Fed), People’s Bank of China (PBOC), and collateral volatility, measured by indices like MOVE. 3/ Global Cross-Border Flows: Investment flows have become global, significantly impacting markets. The debasement effect increases P/E ratios across time, diluting value investing principles. 4/ Central Bank Strategies: U.S. Treasury’s strategies to manage the market, such as the issuance of short-dated bills, and the Fed’s balance sheet decisions. Implementing Basel IV regulations could force banks to hold more bonds, impacting market liquidity. 5/ Emerging Markets Dynamics: Discussion on China's economic state, capital flight, and the impact on the global economy. The interplay of China’s liquidity measures and U.S. policies.