Prospector Partners, LLC

Bank M&A activity: Is the dam about to break? ? Deal making in the industry has been muted as… ? >?Tighter industry regulation? >?High interest rates >?Low valuations ? …kept would-be buyers and sellers on the sidelines.? ? But after a 2-year damper on deal activity, we’re seeing signs of pent-up demand.? ? Will more deals get done in the year ahead? Discover what we’re hearing and seeing from our contacts in the industry in our 2Q Commentary. https://lnkd.in/gByHeJXF #assetmanagement #valueinvesting #equities #banks

Commodities prices have been on a tear in recent months, spurred by rising geopolitical tensions and increasing estimates for global growth. Year to date, copper, silver, WTI crude oil, and aluminum are up 19%, 27%, 8%, and 14% respectively, while cocoa is up an astounding 122%.* Commodities represent ~36% of the Consumer Price Index (CPI).** They’re essential inputs in the goods that sustain our lives – from gasoline to groceries. Rising prices could hit you where it hurts most – your wallet. U.S. consumer spending has been incredibly resilient in the face of persistent inflation and rising interest rates. If commodities prices, interest rates, and inflation remain high and as COVID-era stimulus fades, that may change. Will inflated commodities prices find their way into the price of other goods, reversing recent progress on the battle against inflation? We’ll be watching. Chart source data: FactSet * As of 5/31/24 ** U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U): U.S. city average, special aggregate indexes.

??? “Past performance is no guarantee of future results.”??? But as investors set expectations for 2024, we urge them to remain mindful of an important factor: It's an election year. And the results could have implications on ?? companies ?? sectors ?? the overall economy How? Time will tell, but conditions bear monitoring. #valueinvesting #equities #markets #election #2024election

Glum U.S. employment scene? Not exactly. Consider: ??39% of small businesses have at least one job opening ??The unemployment rate is 3.9% Plus, multi-year federal funding is just starting to spark new spending in: ?? Defense ?? Infrastructure ?? Semiconductors ?? Energy For these reasons—and others—we think a recession in the near term is unlikely. Chart source: The Conference Board #valueinvesting #equities #activeinvesting

At first glance, the U.S. housing market looks troubled. Affordability is at 20-year lows with mortgage rates at 20-year highs. And yet … … the nation is short between 2.5 million (https://hubs.li/Q02qGYJS0) and 3.9 million (https://hubs.li/Q02qGZ7G0) homes. That deep demand eases concerns that home prices are set for a fall. It’s one data point. But an important one. And it adds to our thesis that economic growth might slow in the coming months, but a recession isn’t likely. Chart source: U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development #valueinvesting #equities #activeinvesting

Sure, inflation has cooled from multi-year highs. Doesn’t mean investors can claim the W yet. In fact, ? prices and ? interest rates boost the chances of an economic slowdown. We, however, believe a recession seems unlikely due mostly to: ???? Enduring labor market strength ?? A stable, albeit stressed, housing market Regardless of the macro developments, we believe value investing is due for a bounce in 2024. How so? Check out the data and see for yourself: https://hubs.li/Q02qs53f0 #valueinvesting #equities #activeinvesting

We use our own proprietary research methodology to transform a GAAP balance sheet into a statement of NAV, which effectively marks a balance sheet to market ? This technique is particularly useful when evaluating insurance companies. In order to be successful, fundamental analyses requires a level of judgment and expertise that can only be developed with decades of experience. Read more about our process: https://hubs.li/Q029y5KW0 #mitigatingrisk #assetmanagement #risk #process

It's hard to predict exactly when value will make its comeback, but if history is any guide, investor behavior inevitably reverts to the mean. Value stocks have been overshadowed by growth stocks for over a decade, largely due to the rise of passive investing and stellar performance from a select group of growth stocks. → We believe the fundamentals of value investing remain as relevant as ever in identifying attractive portfolio candidates. → A diligent and disciplined approach to security selection will always pay off in the long run. #risk #philosophy #investing #markets #value #growth

What’s our take on the transition from a looming "imminent recession" to a potential "soft landing"?" Portfolio managers Kevin O’Brien,?Steven Labbe & Jason (Jay) Kish, CPA CFA broke it down in a recent interview.? Topics they covered included: ?? Unpacking the Factors Behind the Macroeconomic Shift: The key drivers influencing the evolution from a looming recession to a potential 'soft landing’ ?? Deciphering Influential Indicators: The critical indicators that have reshaped perceptions of the economic landscape ?? Navigating New Dynamics: The shifting dynamics that have impacted different sectors and industries and offered fresh investment opportunities ?? Strategies for Maximizing Opportunities: The changes we’ve been making to leverage this change to our advantage We’ve got an interesting and somewhat unique view of the investing landscape. Check out our library of podcasts and blogs for more insight. #valueinvesting #equities #activeinvesting #assetmanagement

Promising new weight-loss drugs have attracted a lot of positive attention in the U.S., where nearly one-third of the adult population is overweight. Initially developed as a treatment for Type 2 diabetes, GLP-1 therapies like Novo Nordisk's Ozempic and Wegovy, Eli Lilly's Mounjaro, and several other drugs currently in development have proven successful at helping overweight patients shed pounds. Good news, right? It depends on who you ask. ?? The market is concerned a reduced overweight population will result in the need for fewer hip and knee surgeries and reduced demand for the medical devices used in these surgeries . ??? However, another theory is that losing weight could be increased exercise and potentially more injuries. The 3Q selloff in medical device stocks suggests the market took a shoot-first-ask-questions-later approach. We’ll be monitoring developments with GLP-1 drugs and their impact on medical devices and various other industries to identify potentially oversold investment opportunities. #valueinvesting #equities #glp #weightloss #diabetes #meddevice