Prestige Economics

How will global trade change? The risks are big as are the opportunities. Currently, the biggest exporters are China, the U.S., and Germany. But with significant tensions between the U.S. and China - and risks of kinetic conflict - these trends could change in the future. It's why all of my keynote speeches this year tackled #supplychain risks, including trade, tariffs, and #ColdWarTwo. My expectations? Other manufacturing nations in Asia and Latin America are poised to be big winners in this conflict. India, Japan, South Korea, Mexico, Brazil, and many others are likely to see outsized increases in manufacturing and export demand into the United States. There is even a potential for the U.S. and its military allies in Europe to come closer together on trade. How do you think global trade will change in the years ahead? Let me know in the comments. Follow me - Jason Schenker - for content on the #economy and #markets.

I gave a keynote speech last week at the American Association of Port Authorities Annual Convention in Boston. This was an important talk about the economy, supply chain, and geopolitics. Why? AAPA is a big deal for the U.S. economy and for economies across the Americas. In fact, AAPA represents more than 130 public port authorities in the U.S., Canada, the Caribbean, and Latin America. I always tailor my talks to the group and industry - So my AAPA speech and remarks emphasized multiple value-add themes for seaport, supply chain, logistics, and transportation leaders seeking to capture upside opportunities and manage future challenge. The most important topics of my talk included the following: - Outlook for the U.S. and Global Economy - U.S. Jobs, Domestic Consumption, and Consumer Debt - Practical Artificial Intelligence Use Cases - Cold War Two??Geopolitical Implications for Supply Chains and Port Dynamics - Global Supply Chain Decoupling - Key Strategic Implications for Ports Cary S. Davis, AAPA President and CEO remarked, “It was a privilege to have Jason Schenker deliver an engaging presentation and provide our ports and partners with a fuller picture of where the industry fits into the larger economic picture during our 113th Annual Convention in Boston." Thank you to the AAPA for inviting me to speak! The pleasure was all mine. What would you have wanted to ask me about the #economy, #geopolitics, or #supplychain?

BWC Member Jason Schenker's?firm Prestige Economics is among the top ranked economists in Bloomberg News Q3 2024 rankings, including number 1 US Unemployment Rate Forecaster in the world. BWC is thrilled to have Jason as a member, and we look forward to hearing more from him soon! Read more:

?I'm currently ranked No. 1!?Bloomberg News released rankings this week for top forecasters of the U.S. unemployment rate for the 12 months through the end of Q3 2024. Follow me - Jason Schenker - for content on #jobs, #economy, and #markets!

My latest #LinkedInLearning course has just been released, and it's free for all with the link below!! This is my 21st course, and the focus is finance. Business leaders need to know the value of investment decisions. Measuring IRR helps leaders make sound business investment decisions and helps them be effective stewards of company finances. This covers internal rate of return (IRR), net present value (NPV), return on investment (ROI), cash flow, discounted cash flow models (DCF), and the time value of money.? Build and deepen your understanding of these topics, and learn how you can apply formulas to specific investment opportunities to make informed, high-value decisions. Five Learning Objectives - Differentiate between investment decision scenarios that require ROI, IRR, or NPV calculations. - Integrate the concepts of NPV, the time value of money, cash flow, and the use of DCF models when calculating IRR. - Defend the value of using IRR calculations for investment decisions. - Perform IRR calculations and derive the necessary inputs to evaluate business decisions using IRR. - Evaluate investment decisions using IRR calculations. Let me know what you think of this course in the comments below! Follow me -?Jason Schenker?- for content on #finance, the #economy, and #markets!

Are you ready for the #jobs report this Friday? Payroll gains have slowed over the past two years, while the unemployment rate has been rising on-trend. With the Federal Reserve on the verge of more interest rate cuts, the jobs report will be a key data point informing markets of future Fed policy actions. A solid September employment report with payrolls above August levels with an unemployment rate at or below 4.2% is likely to signal that the Fed can take its time with rate cuts, which would likely support the greenback and bond yields. Additionally, a solid report could still have positive impacts on equities, oil prices, and industrial metals prices because it would assuage concerns about recession. A weak September employment report with payrolls below August levels with an unemployment rate at or above 4.3% would signal that larger interest rate cuts are more likely. This would, in turn, likely weigh on the greenback and bond yields. However, a weak report could still have mixed to bearish implications for equities, oil prices, and industrial metals prices because downside risks could exacerbate concerns about #recession. What do you expect from the employment report this Friday? Follow me - Jason Schenker - for updates about #economics and #markets. https://lnkd.in/g9Q8uQjn

?? Exciting News! ?? Gave the opening keynote speech last Monday in Las Vegas for the PRGX Global Inc. client event "Shaping Winning Strategies in the AI Era." ??? As a global economist, futurist, and author, my speech was "Economic and Financial Outlook: Rethinking Possibilities and Seizing Opportunities" — a talk focused on topics shaping the future of business. ?? My speech centered on how leaders can navigate economic uncertainty, supply chain risks, and the opportunities AI brings to the table.?? The keynote focused on 5 critical themes 1?? AI Opportunities ?? 2?? Cold War Two? Geopolitical and Supply Chain Risks ?? 3?? Economic Outlook, Global Growth, and Manufacturing ?? 4?? The U.S. Labor Market and Consumer Health ?? 5?? U.S. Election Uncertainty and Risks ??????? It was an honor to share these insights with top finance and procurement leaders, and I’m incredibly grateful to be invited. ?? A huge thank you to PRGX for hosting an amazing event and for the incredible work they do in profit recovery and financial intelligence! Here’s to staying ahead and seizing opportunities in the AI era! ?? #AI #Economics #Procurement #SupplyChain

Catch my latest TV interview with BNN Bloomberg on oil prices, OPEC policy, weak global manufacturing, the economy, interest rates and Fed policy, the dollar, and the jobs report out tomorrow. #OilPrices #Economy #InterestRates https://lnkd.in/gQZHTxAe

?? #Housing News - Breaking the Streak as Home Sales Rise in July! ?? After four months of declines, existing home sales finally saw a 1.3% increase in July, bringing the annual rate to 3.95 million. The bad news? We’re still seeing a 2.5% dip in sales compared to last year. ?? The median home price climbed to $422,600, marking a 4.2% year-over-year increase—continuing a 13-month streak of rising prices. ??Despite the modest gains, inventory levels rose by 0.8%, offering more choices for buyers. But affordability is still a challenge, with interest rates hovering around 6.49%. Curious to see how your region performed? The Northeast and West saw growth, while the Midwest and South faced slight declines. ?? What’s next for the housing market? Share your thoughts! Follow me - Jason Schenker - for more updates! #RealEstate #Economy