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Founders should expect conventional channel sales of premium CPG items to decelerate this year. Growth will 'retreat' further to natural and specialty retailers - the ultimate safe haven of growth for premium brands during recessions. This is a material risk to topline for 8-and-9-figure brands heavily weighted to these national chains. The answer is NOT to ramp up TPRs. No. The answer to conventional channel deceleration is effective consumer marketing. The mix should probably lean to fan-communications, if you are selling a culinary/foodie/hedonic trade up. #business #startups #entrepreneurship

It's possible to scale without an articulated, shared competitive strategy. Sure. You can drive the car staring twenty feet out from the front hood. But decisions will be slow and reactive. And this approach requires a single executive at the top who is making all the major decisions (and a lot of minor ones). The 'strategy' may live unconsciously in this person's head. She is the CEO/founder/tyrant. People join the company to "work with XXX." Since almost no one wants to work for such a person in 2025, this model of leadership in CPG start-ups is dying. And this makes an explicit strategy vastly more critical with younger cohorts taking over the industry. The strategic plan needs to replace the unconscious mind of the CEO/guru so that equally empowered, functional leaders remain aligned and accountable. Of course, you need a special breed of functional leaders to submit to an agreed upon strategic plan and collaborate smoothly to execute it. This is MUCH easier when the functional executives are founders who share the same ownership stakes in the company. When you have functional executives who are employees, hiring now becomes single biggest risk to strategy. One narcissist or over-promoted person can tank the coordination required. Strategy in high-growth companies requires superb hiring. Not good enough. There is not enough bureaucracy to 'cover' for sh*tty hiring. So, don't develop a strategic plan with the wrong team, folks. Please. #business #startups #entrepreneurship

Read it BEFORE you order any product. This is the cheapest time for you to pause and iterate. And there is far less sunk-cost psychology preventing you from iterating fast. Once you're in-market, iteration costs more, takes longer and could risk distribution if mismanaged. Yet, you need to iterate until your unsupported, same-store velocities are growing quarter-over-quarter-, year-over-year. Iterate early. Always. #business #startups #entrepreneurship

Most consumer brands that eventually scale take 10 or more years to pull this off. Even when they Ride the Ramp. The adoption of a long-game mindset is essential to get there. You need real mental endurance as well. Consumer brands don't scale at the pace of TikTok views. Only videos scale that fast. [But TikTok is a great tool to vaultyour young business into the seven figures at low expense (e.g. Smackin)] https://lnkd.in/gWNXX83v #business #startups #entrepreneurship

The iconic Skate Ramp features growth that doubles annually based mostly on velocity gains and less so on distribution growth. But, there is a shallower ramp and an equally impressive one. As capital remains aloof and barriers to entry have risen, this Slow Ramp may become dominant for all but HNWI industry insiders (or DTC unicorns). The time to scale difference between 50% CAGR and 100% CAGR off of a small initial launch volume should not concern any founder who has control of their company. That difference is just four years. Here's Figure 22 from the new edition of Ramping Your Brand to make this very clear. #business #startups #entrepreneurship

Here's a great POV that emerged during my recent launch party - Q - "What do you feel are the three most important criteria to derisk a new CPG product?" A - "1)Spend a lot of time with consumers to get feedback and get your packaging right...2)Make sure you understand your pricing and how you're going to promote without going broke, and 3) start small and focused someplace where you can track the velocity". - "Sir" John Foraker If you won a launch party prize or endorsed the second edition, your signed copy is in the mail!!!!!! #business #startups #entrepreneurship

It will be a challenging year for specialty food and beverage brands trying to grow with a hedonic or purely sensory positioning. Historically, this is the component of CPG where middle-class consumers pull back during recessions. Yesterday, Trump said he wouldn't "rule out" a recession due to his tariff decisions. The markets just opened way down. The S&P 500 has been trending down for two weeks straight. This will be a year to lean hard on your fans at all levels of scale. In the eight figures, generating trade up from the middle class will get harder beyond functional or health-oriented brands. If you ARE a health-oriented eight-figure brand, you should actually lean in on consumer marketing as most brands will pull back... Be safe out there, #business #entrepreneurship #startups

Taking the tough love to the masses! "Founders who fail quickly are the ones who don’t raise enough seed money, hold themselves accountable to revenue targets, and interact with their fans." Paying attention to your cash AND your fans is not as easy as it is to write. Read my new piece at Inc. Magazine for the details Thanks to Laura Lorber and Nick Hawkins for this opportunity. https://lnkd.in/gDkxcuaY #business #startups #entrepreneurship

Ooh! My first expert column for Inc. Magazine comes out this Sunday morning...stay tuned for "Top Five Mistakes Founders Keep Making in 2025" Here's number 1 - Not Raising Enough Seed Money. Ouch. Tough love for Sunday morning seems very appropriate. #business #entrepreneurship #startups