A possible point of inflection on Indices: Major Indices are facing selling pressure again, all following the same pattern after trading showed some major volatility all week.? We continue to expect uncertainty in the markets as more information becomes available, and situations develop. We experienced some major volatility on Friday, seems to be due to liquidity issues, with prices spiking 40 points in either direction on Nasdaq on the milliseconds range.? Gold on the other hand was trading as usual.? Major economic news on Friday shows some troubling signs with consumer sentiment, and numbers way above expectation in consumer credit change, with a lower than expected number on Non Farm payrolls report point to people that are potentially increasing debt usage to pay for everyday consumption, given that their sentiment to keep spending doesn't seem to be there.
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Markets are experiencing some massive shifts due to extreme events in fiscal policies from around the world. There is no clear path to where things will go from now. There are a few possible outcomes: Countries decoupling economically, disrupting trade partially, completely, or stagnating over time. Companies who have to burden the expense, plus a strained consumer can lead to companies finding other markets where they can have similar returns, without having to absorb extra costs due to tariffs, or being able to pass off the extra expense onto the final consumer without a reduction in sales. Companies can also work with their partners and governments to distribute the tariff expense to maintain trade lines open Exporting companies can also reduce the price of the products to achieve this. They can implement further automation or cuts on certain products. They can also negotiate better costs for shipping and other expenses. There are plenty of other dynamics that can come into play. Indices are already under pressure with spikes in volatility. Even though the market opened with gaps trading has been relatively orderly. There is heavy selling, but it's not a meltdown, it's a constant repricing trying to find a point of balance. Positions on leveraged futures for the mini Nasdaq have decreased substantially, on the micro e-mini Nasdaq long positions have been recorded, but the increase is still 2% off from balance between sell/buy contracts.