Orsay Consulting (SV)

EV Batteries – A Global Fight for Regional Sovereignty. It is evident that electrification is the long-term solution for mobility — even if the growth path will not be linear as we are currently observing. Therefore, the EV battery supply chain must be massively developed in ways that safeguard the economic sovereignty of each region. China’s domination in the battery supply chain has been well documented with controlling interests in mines around the world and global supremacy in the processing of critical minerals. They are also the clear leader in EV battery production with over?80% of global volumes in 2023.? This economic powerhouse has also proven its industry can produce EVs with a massive cost advantage vs. its US and European counterparts. As analyzed in my recent article?China's Global EV Ambitions — The West Must Act, China has started to leverage its large EV production overcapacity to gain significant market shares abroad, focusing on Europe. The same strategy can and will be applied to EV batteries, requiring a forceful reaction from Europe and the USA. China’s Overcapacity is Leading to a Price War? China’s installed lithium-ion battery capacity amounted to?905 GWh at the end of 2023. This is enough to equip approximately 14 million battery EVs, i.e., 40% more than the volume sold in the world in 2023. By comparison, Europe and the USA trail far behind with around 50 GWh each.? This leaves the global industry with significant overcapacity combined with a dangerous regional mismatch. Moreover, the problem will very likely amplify with planned cell production capacity expected to reach by the end of 2025 over five times the 1.5 TWh global demand for that year according to?BNEF.? China seems willing to repeat the tactic deployed with solar panels over a decade ago. EV battery overcapacity in China has already triggered a domestic price war. Reports indicate Chinese producers are pricing their LFP cells at an?astonishing $47 per kWh. This will result in domestic consolidation as well as strong price pressure on global markets. Naturally, this can be a deterrent for investments in new capacity in Europe or the USA. Europe and the USA Race to Gain Independence from China’s Domination Growing trade tensions between the USA and Europe on one side and China on the other accelerate the deployment of measures intended to facilitate the installation of new battery capacity in the west. They include both sticks and carrots.? In the past few weeks, the USA and Europe announced significant increases in tariffs applied to Chinese products.?In the USA, the tariff rate will increase this year from 7.5% to 25% for lithium-ion EV batteries, and from 27.5% to 102.5% for EVs. Similarly, the EU ... Read the full article at https://lnkd.in/gJHYXYFx. #battery #electrification #supplychain #onshoring #EVs #electricmobility #mobility #electromobility #cleanmobility #economicsovereignty #NMC #LFP #solidstatebattery

The widely used Autonomous Driving & ADAS Ecosystem Landscape is back. In partnership between Autonomy and Orsay Consulting (SV), I am happy to publish the new version of the autonomous driving and ADAS ecosystem landscape. This is the industry’s latest tool for keeping track of over 400 companies active in the autonomous and assisted transportation domain. This reference document is now available in pdf and clickable list formats! Click here to view the Ecosystem Landscape and download a high def version of the pdf: https://lnkd.in/g_hVMpzu. Click here to learn more about Orsay Consulting: https://lnkd.in/gubEaukn. Feel free to reach out if you want to dig deeper. I maintain a repository with a wealth of curated information on most of these companies and many other domains (about 4500 companies globally and growing). I also offer scouting service in most autotech domains, e.g., battery tech, automotive software, connected services, other mobility modes, etc. Ross Douglas Andrew Boakes #AV #autonomousdriving #ADAS #ecosystemlandscape

In late March 2024, after an overnight software update, my Tesla Model 3 greeted me with this geek-oriented message on its screen:?“FSD (supervised) v12 upgrades the city-street driving to a single end-to-end neural network trained on millions of video clips, replacing 300k lines of explicit C++ code.” Tesla offered all U.S. owners a free one-month subscription to the recently released Full Self Driving or FSD (supervised) v12 — FSD is a ADAS Level 2+ solution. For me, this was an opportunity to assess this drastically revamped version against my experience with a FSD v10. I tested the system extensively, on city streets, on highways and freeways, at night, and in the rain in different parts of California. I tried to expose the system to a variety of test conditions to identify both strong points and flaws. Previously, Elon Musk has promised repeatedly the imminent delivery of a feature-complete solution. It would eventually allow owners to earn a significant return on their investment by putting their EV on Tesla’s “future” autonomous ride-hailing platform. Musk now aims to unveil a robotaxi August 8 and wants to bet the future of the company on autonomous driving. Tesla clearly intends to leverage this recent testing campaign to vastly expend its FSD userbase and prepare a business transformation. But is FSD close to performing at the level required to power a fleet of robotaxis? What works well and what still needs improvement to provide the level of safety and confidence required to launch and scale the autonomous ride-hailing platform Musk has been promising? Click below to read the full article. Tesla #FSD #FullSelfDriving #ADAS #Level2+ #robotaxi #AutonomousDriving #DrivingAssistance

Merci à Laurent Meillaud pour cet échange intéressant. Les fran?ais qui me rendent visite à San Francisco sont toujours surpris de voir que le robotaxi est une réalité. Environ 300 Jaguar i-Pace circulent 24/7 dans les rues sans personne au volant. Et elles sont aussi à Los Angeles et à Phoenix. Quant à la solution FSD de Tesla, elle est encore assez loin de la maturité de celle de Waymo ! Lire mon article récent suite à un mois de roulage avec FSD v12: https://lnkd.in/gpJctGBx

How often do you get to see side by side a Ferrari F40, a F50, a Testarossa and a yellow 365 for good measure like here at the Marconi museum south of LA!! How about a #Mercedes 300 SL Gullwing built around a space frame, a #BMW M1 and a #DeLorean DMC12 with its stainless steel body. And many more. Yes, I am a car guy!

China is not only the world’s largest car market with?26 million vehicles?sold in 2023; it also features the highest BEV penetration at 24% in 2023. China has also become the largest automotive exporter ahead of Japan, with 4.1m passenger vehicles shipped in 2023, of which 1.2m plug-ins (+80% yoy). China’s automotive exports are not limited to Chinese brands, by far. Western OEMs are leveraging China’s low manufacturing costs and its very competitive battery supply chain to grow their global volumes, with a focus on EVs. Western brands have been losing market share to Chinese brands in China for several years. This decline accelerated with the growing ambition of established OEMs such as BYD or Geely —?BYD sold more BEVs globally in Q4 2023 than Tesla. Furthermore, many new OEMs have emerged in the last few years and now offer very convincing new products fitted with advanced ADAS, highly integrated user interfaces, attractive styling and more. These players are also able to develop vehicles in extremely short cycles compared to Western OEMs and have managed to achieve significant volumes — e.g., around 150k each for?NIO?(see EC6 below) or?Xpeng. The Chinese market has stabilized whereas capacity has boomed, far exceeding sales. A similar trend emerges for the battery supply chain where China overwhelmingly dominates global markets. Exporting has become existential for many OEMs and battery producers in addition to representing a political statement in the country’s transformation. China’s export ambitions are clear and visible in the market. #EV?BYD?GEELY?Tesla?NIO?XPENG?Xiaomi Technology?Huawei #Chineseexport?#electromomobility?#cleanmobility

Does a 4.1-ton, 2.38-m wide (with mirrors) Hummer EV SUV with its 210-kWh, 1.3-ton battery pack make sense just to drive people around? How about a 3.1-ton, 5.88-meter long Tesla Cybertruck, or a 5.88-meter long, 2.43-meter wide (incl. mirrors) Ford F-150 super cab pickup truck for private use? Wider, taller, longer and heavier has been the trend for many years among OEMs’ vehicle offerings. Today’s vehicles, with their larger footprint and taller front ends, occupy more of our shared space, use more of our natural resources, generate more CO2, cause more fatalities and are often no longer affordable. What can be done to reverse this trend? Click below to read the full article! #mobility?#cleanmobility?#safedriving?#urbanmobility?#mobilitytech#autotech?#lightmobility?#largeSUVs?#hummerEV?#cybertruck

Global battery EV sales grew about 30% in 2023 vs. +65% in 2022. Growth dropped further in the last months of 2023 and was even negative in some markets. 2024 will likely be a consolation year before significant growth picks up again in 2025. Several factors explain this situation, including product affordability, changes in incentive schemes, and an overall ecosystem that lacks the necessary maturity to win over the general public, e.g., charging infrastructure, distribution network. Click below to read the full article! #EV #BEV #cleanmobility #electricvehicles #electromobility #electrification #Tesla #evcharging #inflationreductionact