Onyx Strategic Insights

Register to attend our next webinar in December: 2025 Global Outlook We're offering three different timing options, with the same content for each session: - Dec 10, 10am Singapore / 11am Tokyo - Register: https://lnkd.in/gwCAVecG - Dec 12, 8am Seattle / 4pm London - Register: https://lnkd.in/gd_-Rc_p - Dec 17, 10am New York / 4pm Amsterdam - Register: https://lnkd.in/g4FkgYv3 As companies prepare for 2025, this webinar provides analysis of key macroeconomic and geopolitical topics for the year ahead. With major elections having now taken place, this next year is shaping up to be the year of trade policy implemented in numerous markets. Our speakers will look at expectations for economic growth and provide an analysis of underlying risks. In addition, global trade dynamics are shifting, affecting inflows of investment. With continued geopolitical tensions exerting an influence, supply chain professionals need to prepare for a number of scenarios.

The 2025 global trade outlook is clouded by policy uncertainty. The timing, scope, and level of US tariffs, as well as potential retaliation by other countries, could significantly impact both US and global trade. One way to gain insight into this uncertainty is to examine the impact of the Section 301 tariffs implemented in March 2018. The chart below illustrates the resulting temporal shift in air cargo volumes out of the Asia Pacific region: (1) Pre-Tariff Surge: There was a spike in air cargo volumes in the months immediately preceding the tariffs, as businesses accelerated shipments to avoid cost increases. (2) Post-Tariff Decline: The initial surge was followed by a decline in volumes later in the year, resulting in a net negative impact on air freight demand for the year. While the full consequences of potential new tariffs depend on several currently unknown variables, one probable impact of higher tariffs is volatility in shipping patterns. If 2018 serves as an example, the initial impact could be increased volumes in the near-term followed by a subsequent decline later in 2025.

Last week, the Restoring Trade Fairness Act was introduced by John Moolenaar, chair of the US House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). This bill aims to repeal Permanent Normal Trade Relations (PNTR) with China, subjecting Chinese imports to a range of tariffs, quotas, and other trade remedies. This proposal provides crucial insights into the potential scale, impacted tariff lines, and phase-in periods for these measures, offering companies valuable information on how a PNTR repeal might be implemented. Read the full analysis on the Vantage Point blog: https://lnkd.in/gyVP9rSj #TradePolicy #PNTR #USChina

We've added a third session for our 2025 Global Outlook webinar in December on December 17th. Register in advance to join!

Registration is now open for our December webinar, which will feature the much anticipated 2025 Global Outlook.?This option is usually best suited for our audience in the Americas and Europe time zones, but anyone is welcome to join based on the timing that works best for you.

Registration is now open for our December webinar, which will feature the much anticipated 2025 Global Outlook. This option is usually best suited for our audience in the Asia-Pacific time zone, but anyone is welcome to join based on the timing that works best for you.

Today we're recognizing one of our great Onyx employees, Suryo Ariyanto N.! Suryo leads Onyx's work in Southeast Asia, helping clients navigate the complexities of geopolitics and policy changes that can significantly impact their supply chain networks. We asked Suryo what he loves about his work. He said, "Geopolitics is intricate, and identifying its direct effects on business can be challenging—like piecing together a complex puzzle. My passion for solving these 'puzzles' is what makes this work so engaging and rewarding for me." We also asked Suryo for his advice on being a highly skilled analyst. He said curiosity is essential but equally important is the ability to synthesize information, recognize patterns, and deduce solutions to complex problems. Outside of work, Suryo enjoys outdoor activities such as hiking, mountaineering, and overlanding. Recently, he took up collecting paintings, with a particular focus on Indonesian artworks from the Dutch colonial era. Says Suryo, "It's incredibly satisfying to acquire a beautiful, historic piece at good value after thorough research." To learn more about careers at Onyx and submit your resume for future openings, visit our website: https://lnkd.in/g_vi8t3T

President-elect Donald Trump’s win set off significant speculation in policy spheres around the world and statements from officials on their likely stances in a negotiation over tariffs proposed on the campaign trail. Geopolitical context is likely to be a much stronger force in shaping negotiations in the next Trump administration than in his first. Companies and supply chains are caught in the middle. Read the full article on the Vantage Point blog: https://lnkd.in/gi4jF2CN

In recent years, Southeast Asia-5 (SEA-5) countries—Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam—have witnessed a significant transformation in their digital infrastructure. This shift is primarily driven by the implementation of data localization policies, which mandate that data generated within a country must be stored and processed locally. These policies have led to a surge in the demand for local data centers, presenting a unique challenge for the energy landscape in SEA-5. This situation could pose challenges for businesses looking to expand their manufacturing operations in the region, as it intensifies competition for electricity resources. Read more in this edition of the Vantage Point blog: https://lnkd.in/e43Enr3r

Next week is the November webinar session: The Future of the E-Commerce Surge Out of Asia Two options available to attend: - Nov 19, 10am Singapore / 11am Tokyo - Register: https://lnkd.in/gp9V2XG7 - Nov 21, 8am Seattle / 4pm London - Register: https://lnkd.in/gUaj3j2P E-commerce packages have been taking up valuable freight space and driving up rates on outbound Asia routes over the past few years. In this webinar, we explore how likely the drivers of this surge are to endure. We'll look at structural factors like US and EU de-minimis policy and changes to the supply chain strategy of Chinese e-commerce firms that affect the medium to long-term trajectory of e-commerce movements out of Asia.