National Center for Energy Analytics

?? ICYMI (in case you missed it!), watch our briefing at the Capitol, unveiling the findings in our latest report, "Energy Delusions: Peak Oil Forecasts," by Mark P Mills and Neil Atkinson. The speaker lineup was incredible, with insights from analysts, industry leaders, and politicians on both sides of the aisle. https://lnkd.in/eTAgpzR8

Incredible! Congratulations to our advisor Scott W. Tinker, PhD on this amazing initiative.

A wonderful thought from Gary Hines, Executive Vice President of the Switch Energy Alliance. Repost and share.

?? Hot off the Press: IEA’s Oil Scenarios Critically Flawed? ?? The latest report by Mark P Mills and Neil Atkinson, Energy Delusions: Peak Oil Forecasts – A Critique of Oil “Scenarios” in the IEA World Energy Outlook 2024, confirms what many energy professionals have suspected: the IEA’s oil demand scenarios are riddled with flawed assumptions. According to the authors, 23 flaws to be exact! For a recent EPCM Holdings consulting project for African Union in Eastern Africa, my colleague Willem De Meyer and I carefully evaluated the IEA’s STEPS and Net Zero scenarios and ultimately decided against using them as a basis for our analysis. Our concerns over unrealistic assumptions have now been echoed by this timely and highly relevant critique. Here are my top 5 of the 23 critical flaws identified: ?? STEPS assumes policies that are not being implemented in full anywhere (see the climate action tracker image below) ?? EV market penetration projections ignore recent slowdowns ?? Unrealistic assumptions about developing nations’ oil demand (this is particularly relevant to the #justtransition in Africa) ?? Assumes corporate energy transition pledges remain intact despite recent evident reversals ?? Overestimates alternative energy financing despite increasing constraints This raises a fundamental dilemma: how can energy professionals—including those at the International Energy Agency (IEA), long regarded as a gold standard in forecasting—navigate the challenge of defining reasonable and realistic assumptions in an increasingly volatile geopolitical landscape? As global events reshape energy dynamics, balancing ambition with pragmatism is more critical than ever. How should we adapt our methodologies to account for these uncertainties? Let’s discuss. #EnergySecurity #OilMarkets

The National Center for Energy Analytics (NCEA) did a study examining the most recent IEA World Energy Outlook oil scenario and found several major issues. There was an associated Press event held in the Capitol Visitor center that featured Senators John Barrasso (R) and John Hickenlooper (D). https://lnkd.in/gVbg_FAr These “reports” and media articles that continue to feature outlier energy and climate (RCP 8.5) scenarios are intended to illicit drama and fear. Take them with a salt dome of salt. Repost and share. #NCEA #IEAWEO #oilproduction

What a month for conversations around energy policy! ?? ? NCEA scholars have been featured in over 30 publications in February alone, including the Wall Street Journal, National Review, Politico, and more. ?? ? Since our last update, our team has been actively engaged in shaping the energy dialogue. Highlights include: ? "Energy Delusions": A critique of the IEA’s oil forecasts by Mark P Mills and Neil Atkinson, presented on Capitol Hill featuring Senator John Barrasso (R-WY), Alan Armstrong, CEO of Williams, and Senator John Hickenlooper (D-CO). Link in newsletter to the full video. ?? ? "The Choices We Face | Energy for the 21st Century: A Declaration of Guiding Principles": Co-authored by NCEA’s Mark P. Mills and Scott W. Tinker, PhD, and released by the Alliance for Responsible Citizenship (ARC). Link in the newsletter. ?? ? And don’t miss our advisor, Scott W. Tinker, PhD speaking at CERAWeek on a few different panels/sessions. Follow the link in the newsletter!

?? "While there is much that can and should be debated about details, nuances, and aspirations, we hold these principles to be self-evident..." Have you read "The Choices We Face | Energy for the 21st Century: A Declaration of Guiding Principles" by our Executive Director Mark P Mills and advisory board member Scott W. Tinker, PhD? Published and released by Alliance for Responsible Citizenship, this document is making the rounds. Be sure to check it out! Link to the research in comments ??

Putting a 'stake-in-the-ground' with my friend Scott Tinker at the Switch Energy Alliance. https://lnkd.in/eg7H6tKu

If you’ve not read Scott W. Tinker, PhD and Mark P Mills’s paper, “The Choices We Make,” you should. It’s a timely reminder of the limits to what mankind can do to reduce carbon emissions. Below are some excerpts from the report that particularly resonate with us: 1. “… maintaining [energy] affordability at scale underpins modern life, and is key to enabling the flourishing of today’s impoverished societies…. Energy will not end poverty, but we cannot end poverty without energy.” 2. “…a singular focus [on CO2 emissions] not only ignores the realities of multidimensional environmental issues, but more importantly ignores energy poverty and the central need for access to a sufficient supply of affordable energy.” 3. “It is an understatement to observe that the goal to lower global CO2 emissions is extremely difficult. Indeed, the goal is arguably impossible in time frames that are meaningful for practical policymaking.” Our Take: Most people, especially elites, massively underestimate the role affordable energy plays in society. This misunderstanding is at the root of today's misguided energy policies. 4. “[In the US]… about $200 billion dollars of conventional natural gas power plants… can provide backup sufficient to deal with weeks of variabilities in weather, disasters, accidents, and maintenance, as well as normal peaks in human behaviours. By contrast, it would cost trillions of dollars… for enough batteries to supply a couple of days of grid-scale electricity storage.” 5. “Models based on decades of meteorological data show that to make wind/solar as primary power would require a combination of trillions of dollars in batteries, plus building an overall grid capacity several-fold greater than conventional, which would still be less reliable than today’s grids.” Our Take: These assertions comport perfectly with findings from our analyses of gas-fired and solar energy systems. Renewables simply can't provide reliable energy on an affordable basis. 6. “Fundamentally, government interventions do not change the inherent economics or physics of energy technologies and systems.” Our Take: Gov’t meddling inevitably leads to inefficiencies and distortions. End of story. 7. “Our goal for the coming century should be to ensure that the whole population—both the less fortunate in already developed countries as well as those in emerging and developing nations—can obtain the material wealth and social conditions enabled by low-cost, abundant energy, and in so doing have the economic wherewithal to invest in environmental protection. That will require significantly more energy.” Our Take: It's total folly to believe 8+ billion people will go along with the diktats of global elites who think they can limit what others aspire to—energy is far too important in the pursuit of higher living standards. It's why the energy transition continues to flounder. Here’s a link to the paper: https://lnkd.in/dWSRCeCd #energytransition #energy

Texas is Taking Nuclear Seriously! I had an incredible time speaking at the Texas Policy Summit, where I joined the Honorable Chuck DeVore and Jack Spencer for a lively discussion on the future of energy. With tough questions and bold ideas, it’s evident that Texas policymakers, industry leaders, and energy experts are leaning into nuclear power as a key part of the state’s energy future. #NuclearEnergy #TexasPolicySummit #CleanEnergy #FutureOfPower