Municipal Market Analytics, Inc.

MMA's Chart of the Week: The municipal market has often been quiet during Thanksgiving week with relatively light trading, but since 2011, MMA’s 11-15yr price index has averaged a modest gain of 0.10%. Performance has been biased towards strength more recently, with gains during Thanksgiving week for five of the last six years. #chartoftheweek #fixedincome #municipalbonds

MMA's Chart of the Week: Late yesterday, S&P Global Ratings put the city of Chicago on “CreditWatch with negative implications.” ?The ratings agency affirmed the city’s BBB+ rating, but analysts noted at least a 50% chance of downgrade over the next three months. S&P cited the challenges Chicago will face in closing a nearly $1B deficit in next year’s budget. Despite the warning from S&P, the city’s spreads have narrowed roughly ~30bps since the start of the year.?#chartoftheweek #fixedincome #municipalbonds

On November 13, a group of industry participants, and faculty from U Chicago, U Texas and NYU congregated for dinner at the Metropolitan Club in NYC. The discussion focused on the growing role of colleges and universities in public policy and public finance. The three universities in attendance (along with UNC) are members of the BDA's Alliance. The evening also marked Municipal Market Analytics 30th year. Thanks to all in attendance and particularly Brad Winges at Hilltop who offered kind words and a spectacular cake to mark the occasion. A productive and celebratory evening.

MMA's Chart of the Week: The US presidential election is today. Many polls and oddsmakers show a tight race, with PredictIt showing odds of 56% that Donald Trump will win the White House. Municipal price performance during the month of November has been mixed in past election years. November 2016 was a clear outlier which, following Trump’s election victory, was defined by high interest rate volatility and strained tax-exempt liquidity. Order was eventually provided by algorithmic accounts, but yields still rose sharply, and memories of the period have created angst ahead of the upcoming 2024 election. Nonetheless, November’s performance in recent years has skewed the month’s seasonal bias positively, which has quickly become the fourth best month of the calendar year. #chartoftheweek #fixedincome #municipalbonds

Tom Doe & others explore why 27 states are running out of cash in this segment produced by CNBC. https://lnkd.in/gwEkXarF

MMA’s Chart of the Week: Municipal bonds have experienced sharp declines so far month-to-date. In the wake of the September Fed meeting, implied odds suggested that there would be 75bps worth of additional cuts by the end of the year. Recently strong data has thrown water on aggressive rate cut bets, and markets are now pricing in just 1.7 cuts (of 25bps) by the end of the year. Employment data to be released later this week could shift sentiment significantly. #municipalbonds #fixedincome #chartoftheweek

MMA's Chart of the Week: Yesterday, the Commonwealth of PA sold three GO deals totaling $1.6B. On October 7, Moody’s upgraded PA’s GO debt from Aa3 to Aa2. Moody's cited significant increases in its budget stabilization reserves and less pressure from long term liabilities. Fitch and S&P affirmed their respective ratings (S&P maintained a positive outlook). The Commonwealth’s spreads to AAA benchmarks have held in a narrow range over the last year. As of Tuesday’s close, a 10yr PA GO eval was 2.95%. Yesterday, PA GO 5s of 2034 were priced in line with that evaluation at 2.95%.?#chartoftheweek #fixedincome #municipalbonds

MMA's Chart of the Week: Today, there was a block trade on a Tampa, FL Univ. of Tampa Project revenue bond, 4s of 2050, at 4.32%. The evaluation of the bond was 4.30% as of yesterday’s close. There has not been a widening of spreads as a result of recent hurricane risk. Hurricane Milton is expected to make landfall on Wednesday evening, and many residents on the western coast of FL have been told to evacuate. #chartoftheweek #fixedincome #municipalbonds

Municipal Market Analytics and many other muni greats like Howard Cure, John Mousseau, Tom Kozlik and Jenny Poree comment on Helene in today's The Bond Buyer! https://lnkd.in/eviEHh7T

Our Online Self Study Class on Municipal Credit and Strategy led by Matt Fabian guides you through our approach to managing municipal credit risk. It's extremely comprehensive and offers 20CPE credits- for those govt accountants! It's ideal for accountants, public finance members, govt officials, credit analysts, bond traders, PMs and a great way to jump start a training process for new hires. https://lnkd.in/eazizB2F