?? Some early-morning post-election thoughts. Here’s what we can expect in business immigration if we use Trump’s last term as a guide:
? A spike in H-1B denials: USCIS will be much harder on entry-level, lower-paying positions. H-1Bs for smaller entities (watch out founders and startups) will receive more RFEs and more general scrutiny.
? Less “grace” after layoffs: currently, work visa holders get a 60-day grace period after layoffs. Under Biden, USCIS made it easier for these individuals to change to B-2 status to extend their runway and then switch back to H-1B when they found a job. Expect any accommodations like that to go away, though it would be harder for Trump to remove the 60-day grace period, which is enshrined in regulation.
? Renewed war on the H-4 EAD: Trump will likely renew the opposition to the H-4 EAD, an Obama-era rule that has survived many court-battles and rescission attempts over the years. It’s possible the Trump administration will again try to rescind the H-4 EAD regulation.
? Less STEM-forward approach: On balance, the Biden administration was uncommonly supportive of immigrants in tech (AI executive order, STEM as a favorable factor for NIWs, accommodations for founders and startups in the H-1B context, etc). While the Trump administration may be bullish on crypto and AI, they will likely not view immigrants as integral to meeting their goals here.
? Students, watch out: the Trump administration tried to enact several policies that made life more difficult for F-1 international students. They will likely try to do so again (watch out STEM OPT), creating a climate of uncertainty and anxiety for international students, potentially making the U.S. a less attractive destination for foreign talent.
? More stress: lots of little things will generally get harder and more frustrating. H-1B extensions will no longer be straightforward, stamping may become difficult and onerous, more interviews will be required for green cards, and processing times will increase as staffing will be kept at low levels.
Is there any hope here? If there is a silver lining, it’s that many powerful tech leaders and VCs supported Trump and have his ear, and they believe in sensible business immigration policies.
But they will have to contend with Trump’s chief immigration policy maker, Stephen Miller, who believes in restricting immigration across the board and is working night and day as we speak to plan for the execution of the policies articulated in the Project 2025 materials.
