Morning Consult

As we approach the holiday season, our economists Sofia Baig and Kayla Bruun sat down with retail expert?Claire Tassin to discuss trends for the 2024 holiday season for Consumer Says, our economic podcast. We discuss her recent research on what factors will define the upcoming holiday’s shopping trends (hint: inflation weighs heavily on the minds of consumers), how different generations shop, which types of gifts are most popular, and how consumers with tighter budgets are managing their expenses. Watch the full podcast here —> https://lnkd.in/geFfPWag And subscribe on Spotify here —> https://lnkd.in/gMZbsSjN

Coming in 2025: Morning Consult AI. Powered by more than 15,000 daily interviews across the globe, our suite of AI tools will help you make decisions even faster than ever before. Morning Consult AI includes: — A conversational chatbot that can answer everything from how often college-educated millennials hear about your brand to what is the distribution of income among people with kids — AI-powered assistants that make it faster and easier than ever before to use our Intelligence platform, so you can build custom audiences with a few keystrokes — AI-powered tools that will autonomously complete tasks, such as creating brand or trend reports Sign up today to get early access. https://lnkd.in/gfYgBhdK

Our 2025 Influencer Marketing Guide offers insight into how influencers fit into U.S. adults’ social media consumption and purchasing decisions, and where future influencers want to take the industry. A few quick stats: — Influencers’ recommendations are still powerful. Nearly half (45%) of social media users report that they “often” or “sometimes” make purchases after seeing someone post about it on social media. — But the trust in influencers is declining. The share of social media users who trust influencers dropped 5 percentage points since last year. — TikTok continues to be the go-to influencer destination for young people and women, while YouTube reigns supreme among the broader population. — Households making $100,000 or more annually are more likely than the average social media user to follow influencers posting across all content verticals. Download our new report here https://lnkd.in/gvVug5kE

What does another Trump administration mean for domestic policy, brands, the economy and international relations? Our analysts Eli Yokley, Ellyn Briggs, Sofia Baig and Sonnet Frisbie will tackle these questions in a 1 PM ET webinar. Register here: https://lnkd.in/gxysyka4

We'll be hosting a webinar this Friday to unpack the election, what it means for brands, policy priorities and the economy. Join us: https://lnkd.in/eUy8cv5S

Heading into election night, Morning Consult's final surveys showed former President Donald Trump leading or trailing within the margin in all seven key battlegrounds, reflecting a toss-up race that could easily break either way. We said in our final webinar of the cycle on Monday that America should prepare for the possibility that either candidate could sweep all seven Electoral College battlegrounds. That's exactly what's going to happen. So how did Trump win? While Trump's win was relatively narrow, the shifts in his direction relative to 2020 were broad-based: making gains in all 50 states and across a range of demographic groups. A few key areas to look at: — The Economy: While Vice President Harris performed better than President Joe Biden on economic issues, Trump still outperformed her in the key battleground states. — Biden was an albatross: Heading into Election Day, voters were more likely to disapprove than approve of Biden in 46 states, and even in liberal bastions like California, only a slight majority of voters approved of his job performance. — Trump made gains with younger voters: Our final tracking of the race showed Harris failing to recreate Biden’s margins among the youngest voters, and even trailing Trump in some cases. Read more: https://lnkd.in/g7tfeFpw

Voters' top post-election concerns from our final 2024 pre-election survey. See full report: https://lnkd.in/eyFdRBfi Morning Consult

Today we've published a special #China-focused edition of our biweekly Counter/Consensus briefing looking at China's relations in its own backyard and further afield. What's striking not just in APAC but in all the regions we examine is that favorability toward China has trended consistently upwards over the past two years. And in APAC specifically, if the trend continues for another two years, regional views of China will likely be in net-positive territory, potentially to the detriment of America's own geopolitical interests (see chart attached here). Take a look at this week's edition for our assessment of the geopolitical and geoeconomic implications of shifting global, regional, and country-specific views of China. And if you'd like to receive our Counter/Consensus briefing going forward, you can sign up to get it for free here: https://lnkd.in/ebuXsjGm

Today we published the Q4 release of a comprehensive suite of data/analytical tools to help corporates manage reputational risks arising at the intersection of geopolitics, domestic politics, and consumer activism. In the Q4 update of our Global U.S. Reputation Tracker – which monitors global views of the United States and related risks to American companies – we see persistent boycott and security risks to U.S. multinationals doing business in the MENA region arising from country-of-origin effects amid newly declining views of America. With respect to corporate activism, the H2/2024 edition of our Global ESG & Corporate Responsibility Outlook meanwhile finds noteworthy declines in support for core ESG and CR tenets across Europe and in some Asian markets (Australia specifically). But we push back on prevailing narratives that global publics are dramatically souring on ESG/CR – much of the noteworthy variation on this front is market-specific as opposed to across-the-board. Last but not least, the Q4 update of our Global Corporate Purpose Tracker – which gauges public demand for corporate activism on key sociopolitical issues, including abortion, LGBTQ+ rights, unionization, and more – reveals similar trends of softening European sentiment, but with majorities supporting corporate activism on these and other issues across much of the G20, in line with the findings of the aforementioned report. More broadly, this is a great suite of tools for brands pursuing end-to-end risk exposure management, running from country-of-origin effects all the way to targeted corporate activism on domestic political issues. You can find all of the aforementioned resources here: 1. Q4 Global U.S. Reputation Tracker: https://lnkd.in/e_FfZaU4 2. H2 Global ESG & Corporate Responsibility Outlook: https://lnkd.in/eFFmrbAn 3. Q4 Global Corporate Purpose Tracker: https://lnkd.in/ep_DCHbY 4. Companion Research Note (focused on Europe): https://lnkd.in/e4X6iciJ #geopoliticalrisk #politicalrisk #2024elections

?? Consumer Sentiment Data: A Clearer Picture with Morning Consult A recent analysis published in Briefing Book used Morning Consult’s data to support the hypothesis that the University of Michigan Survey of Consumers is negatively biased after transitioning to an online survey. The economists found that, since Michigan switched to an online format earlier this year, there has been a structural break in their time series driven by demographic changes. Keeping that in mind, the economists built an adjusted consumer sentiment index and found an 8.86 index point difference. The new adjusted consumer sentiment index aligned with Morning Consult’s consumer sentiment index nearly exactly. Morning Consult’s consumer confidence survey collects daily responses from roughly 5,000 U.S. adults, providing a high-frequency, real-time indicator of economic sentiment. Meanwhile, the Michigan survey gathers data from a much smaller sample—around 1,000 adults per month. Want to know what 2025 holds for U.S. consumers? Our team of economists is offering exclusive 15-minute preview sessions to dive into key insights tailored to your industry. Reserve your session today and stay ahead of the curve! ?? https://lnkd.in/gC5YwgGk #ConsumerSentiment #EconomicOutlook #MorningConsult #RealTimeData #BusinessStrategy #MarketInsights #Economics