Mobius Risk Group

ES #130: The Strategic Case for Greenland Why the Trump administration's Greenland interest extends far beyond untapped critical minerals

?? MARKET SIGNAL: Canadian crude differentials strengthen despite tariff uncertainty. WCS has improved by $6 since January, contradicting conventional expectations. Meanwhile, Cushing inventories reach lowest levels since 2009 while Pad 2 product stocks build to five-year highs - creating an unusual market dynamic. Our analysts explore these divergent trends and what they signal about market positioning ahead of potential trade policy shifts. ?? Listen for our latest market assessment and regional pricing outlook

?? Cobalt, Conflict & Clean Energy Over 70% of the world’s cobalt comes from the DRC—and M23 rebels just made major territorial gains in its most mineral-rich provinces. In 2025 alone, we've seen: ? A surge in conflict threatening global supply ? China tightening control over mining + refining ? The DRC offering a Ukraine-style minerals-for-security deal to the U.S. Why does it matter? Because 90%+ of U.S. planned power projects rely on foreign-controlled critical minerals—many of which are exposed to geopolitical risk. Mobius’s latest Energy Shots breaks it all down in 5 minutes: ?? What’s happening in the DRC ?? How it affects the clean energy transition ?? And why U.S. energy security is on the line

CoT: WTI Shorts Return After Two-Week Exit A closer look at fund managers' energy market futures and options positioning CFTC/ICE Commitment of Traders data through March 18, 2025 Link in comments

In our latest podcast episode, our analysts break down several critical developments for energy traders and industry professionals: - OPEC's new compliance schedule: Will producers actually follow through with makeup cuts? - What's behind UAE's lighter makeup requirements compared to other members? - US imports from Canada dropped by 541,000 barrels/day - tariff fears or something else? - ERCOT just set new renewable generation records - but what happens when the wind stops blowing? - US LNG feed gas demand hit an all-time high of 16.7 BCF/day Plus: Why Q2 energy pricing patterns shouldn't be used to predict the rest of 2025. Listen to the full analysis (link in comments).

?? Important regulatory update: The CFTC's withdrawal of Staff Advisory 21-19 via Letter 25-05 brings welcome clarity to the swaps market. This action helps define SEF registration triggers, potentially opening doors for innovative technology solutions that increase transparency without unnecessary regulatory burden. Corporate hedgers have long voiced concerns about "spoofing," "fading," and "being the product" - this first step may finally allow for better-aligned hedging execution solutions. #CFTCregulation #SwapsMarket #Fintech

Our latest energy market podcast examines the potential consequences of Russia-Ukraine ceasefire talks on European gas markets. We analyze: Current EU gas inventories (34% full with slowing withdrawal rates) The possibility of Russian pipeline gas returning to Europe Russia's pivot to Asian markets via Power of Siberia pipelines The politics of alternative supply routes through Azerbaijan As Russia recaptures territory in the Kursk region (home to key gas infrastructure), what does this mean for Europe's energy security strategy?

China's strategic dominance of critical minerals is staggering: 44% of refined copper 77% of refined cobalt 65% of lithium 91% of graphite 92% of rare earths Without these materials, the clean energy transition stalls.

Despite forecasts of "peak coal," global demand keeps rising. BRICS nations have nearly doubled coal capacity since 2010 (819→1500 GW) while G7 countries reduced theirs (500→292 GW). Energy security trumps emissions concerns for developing economies.

U.S. solar generating capacity grew 50 GW (+21% Y/Y) in 2024, accounting for 66% of all new U.S. generating capacity added last year, according to Tuesday's SEIA report.