Marsoft Inc.

We are pleased to announce the release of Marsoft’s Q1 2025 Containership Market Report. This report offers a detailed analysis of the latest trends and developments in the containership market. Key highlights analyzed in the report include: ??Geopolitical Impacts: The ongoing conflict in the Red Sea and its potential resolution, examining how these events may influence global shipping routes. ??Market Overcapacity: Insights into?a possible?resumption of Red Sea traffic?within the next two years?and its implications for liner freight rates and charter rates. ??Newbuilding Activity: An in-depth look at the record-high newbuilding activity amidst geopolitical uncertainty and weakening market fundamentals. ??Tariffs: The liner industry thrived on the coattails of geopolitical turmoil during the last four years (pandemic, Red Sea crisis). But the impact of tariffs on the global economy, world trade and the containership markets could be a whole different matter, as we discuss in our Low Case. ? Stay ahead with our expert analysis and comprehensive insights. For more detailed information, please refer to the full report available to our clients. If you are not a client, please contact one of our offices.

???? The Marine Money Maritime Finance & Trade Forum is happening this week in Panama, a key hub for shipping and finance. Marsoft’s President, Arlie Sterling, is at the heart of the discussions, moderating the "Powerhouse" panel on dry bulk, energy markets, and the Panama Canal. ?? Panelists: @Luis Ca?izales (Maritime Strategies International), Schreiner Parker (Rystad Energy), Gabriel Mariscal (C.B. Fenton & Co.) ?? Key discussion: The impact of Basel IV, rising ship values vs. earnings, and new financing opportunities. Arlie will also present "Best Credit Practices in Ship Lending", sharing insights on risk management and debt capacity. Plus, he’ll join a panel on ship finance alongside Ben Padilla (FPG AIM Americas) and Kevin O'Hara (Fearnley Securities ), moderated by Han Deng (Reed Smith LLP). ?? March 20 | Panama City – Who else is attending? Let’s connect and shape the future of maritime finance together! #MarineMoney #ShippingFinance #MaritimeIndustry #Panama

???Join Us for an Exclusive Webinar March 19 on Funding Maritime Emissions Reductions!??? Marsoft and ClimeCo are excited to invite professionals in the shipping industry to our upcoming webinar. Discover innovative opportunities to fund maritime emissions reductions, from advanced retrofits via GreenScreen to renewable fuel use through cutting-edge tools like book and claim carbon finance. Webinar Highlights: ?? Learn about multiple pathways to economically fund and grow your sustainability efforts ??Explore advanced retrofits and renewable fuel use ??Engage with innovative tools such as book and claim carbon finance Event Details: ?? Date: Wednesday 19th?March 2025 ?? Time:?2pm UK/3pm CET/10am EST ? Duration: 30 minutes followed by brief Q&A session ?? Speakers: Emily Damon, CLimeCo Chief Growth Officer; Erika Schiller, ClimeCo Senior VP of Project Development; and Arlie Sterling, President of Marsoft Inc. Don't miss this quick primer designed to help you assess and implement effective sustainability strategies. We hope you can join us! ?? Please register using this link: https://lnkd.in/gZWsqNpy. You can either join live or listen to the recording later if you have registered. #Sustainability #Maritime #EmissionsReduction #GreenShipping #Webinar #Marsoft #ClimeCo

The path to shipping decarbonization isn’t just about compliance - it’s about creating real value. ?? ? Join Marsoft and ClimeCo’s webinar to explore how advanced retrofits can generate monetizable emission reductions through the GreenScreen program and how renewable fuels can drive further impact. Don’t miss insights from Emily Damon, Erika Schiller, and our own Arlie Sterling! Register now: https://lnkd.in/gZWsqNpy

?????????????? ???????????????? ? The rapidly shifting geopolitical landscape is forcing a reassessment of assumptions regarding Russian pipeline gas flows to Europe. In light of renewed speculation over a potential restoration of Russian energy supplies under a peace agreement scenario, we wondered about the implications for the LNG and LNG tanker markets. Marsoft’s Dr. Hauke Kite-Powell and Ryan Uljua, CAIA reviewed possible implications for LNG prices, shipping demand, and the broader energy market. ? ?????????? ?????? ???????? ?? ?????????????????? ???? ???????????????? ?????? ???????????? ?????????????????????? ???????? ?????? ?????????? ????????????????????????????. ?????? ?????? ??????????????’?? ???????? ???? ?????????????? ?????? ??????????????? Our Base Case scenario calls for no change in Russian pipeline gas flows to Europe relative to current levels, and we still consider a return to pre-Ukraine-invasion volumes unlikely. But we must consider the consequences of such a return, regardless of the scenario’s likelihood. ? ?????? ???????? ?????????????? ???????????????? ?????? ???????????? ???? ?? ???????????????????? ???? ?????????????? ???????????????? ?????? ?????????? ???? ????????????? We believe the LNG markets will rapidly equilibrate. A substantial increase in Russian pipeline supplies to Europe will sharply reduce European LNG imports, pushing down LNG spot prices in Europe and, by extension, in Asia. However, lower LNG prices would also stimulate demand from price-sensitive buyers, partially offsetting Europe’s declining import demand. ? The dynamic would affect US LNG exports the most, which would face greater competition but could also benefit from longer-haul exports to Asia, thereby boosting tonne-mile demand for LNG carriers. ? ?????? ???????? ?????????? ?????? ???????????? ???????? ???? ???????? ?????? ?????????? ?????????????????? ???? ???????????? ?????? ?????? ?????????????? ?????????????????? ???? ???????????? ???????????????? ???????????????? ????????????????? In our Base Case, in which Russian pipeline flows remain cut off, LNG spot prices are relatively strong in 2025 and 2026 at $15-16/mmBtu, then decline to $10 by 2027. ? If meaningful Russian pipeline gas returns to Europe in the second half of 2025, our analysis shows that ?????? ???????? ???????????? ???????? ???????? ???? $??/?????????? ???? ????????, $?? ???? ????????, ?????? $?? ???? ????????. At those steep discounts, price-sensitive importers would likely absorb 80% of the displaced seaborne LNG no longer flowing to Europe. ? For the market to fully absorb the excess LNG, spot prices would need to fall by another $2/mmBtu to $7/mmBtu in 2026 and $6/mmBtu in 2027. --- How much would LNG prices need to drop for markets to absorb displaced volumes if Russian pipeline gas returns to Europe? And what would that mean for US LNG exports and tanker rates? The potential impact on shipping could be surprising. Read our full analysis - ?? Link in comments. ?

???15 years of climate impact – and just getting started!??? A big?congratulations?to?ClimeCo?on 15 years of pioneering decarbonization and sustainability solutions. Your work in reducing over 40?million tonnes of CO2e is an incredible milestone. At?Marsoft, we’re proud to collaborate with ClimeCo on?GreenScreen?, helping shipowners turn decarbonization into a smart investment. Through GreenScreen?, we provide world-class evaluation of retrofit options,?Gold Standard?verification of carbon reductions, and access to?carbon credit revenues — at zero upfront cost. Together, we’re making a real impact in driving shipping toward a more sustainable future. Here’s to the next 15 years of innovation and action!????

Containership Markets: A Turning Point Geopolitical uncertainty is at a high in the aftermath of events in the Middle East and the change of the US Administration. We caught up with Marsoft’s Costas Bardjis to learn more about the consequences for containership markets. ? ?????? ???????? ???????????? ???????????????????????? ?????????? ?????? ?????????????????????????? ????????????????? The liner industry enjoyed two unprecedented boom cycles during the last four years. But at the end of January 2025, containership operators and vessel providers are waking up to a different world. Most importantly, Houthi militants announced last week that they will cease their attacks on ships and allow Red Sea traffic to resume immediately, a development which could shake liner earnings in the coming months. Moreover, the change of Administration in Washington could drastically change the industry’s fortunes starting in 2025 and carrying out well beyond. ???????? ???? ?????? ???????????? ???????????? ???? ?????? ?????????????? ?????????????? ???? ?? ???????????????????? ???? ?????? ?????? ????????????????? More than any other shipping sector, the Red Sea turmoil benefited the containership markets. Regularly, 18% of global containerized trade was shipped via the Suez Canal. About 90% of this trade was diverted to longer routes around South Africa, substantially bolstering TEU-miles and increasing vessel demand by an extra 8% in 2024. As a result, liner operators enjoyed booming rates, as they barely managed to cover demand requirements by rushing newly built mega-ships into east-west services. A restoration of Red Sea shipments could render much of the extra tonnage redundant, thus reinstating overcapacity and crippling liner freight rates. --- The containership industry is at a pivotal moment. After years of booming growth, geopolitical shifts and the potential resumption of Red Sea transits are forcing operators to rethink their strategies. But how soon could Red Sea shipments fully resume, and what does this mean for liner operators? How will the new US administration’s policies impact global trade, and is there a way forward for containerized shipping amidst these challenges? ?? Read the full interview with Marsoft’s Costas Bardjis to uncover insights on these pressing topics, including the risks of overcapacity, market resilience, and strategies for navigating a turbulent future. Find the link to the complete article in the comments!

Megan Kennedy on New Tariffs Impacting LPG Trade Across multiple LPG market calls we’ve attended over the last month, industry players talked about the recent state of the market as well as what’s to come in the coming years for LPG trade. Topics of conversation ranged from lower-than-expected VLGC rates in 2024 Q4, to expected supply growth out of the US and Middle East going forward, to the startup of ethane and longer-haul ammonia trades. While all of these topics are worth deliberating, one important issue was markedly absent from presentation slide decks: the implications for US LPG trade to China now that the new Trump administration is expected to impose tariffs on goods from China. At Marsoft, we see this issue as having very significant implications for LPG trade and in particular, VLGC tonne-mile trade starting as soon as later this year. ? We covered this issue in our last LPG/VLGC Market Report for 2024 Q4 and expect it to be a major sticking point going forward. We believe it is highly likely China will retaliate against Trump-imposed tariffs by slashing LPG imports from the US, in a repeat of 2018/19 developments during the first Trump administration. In our 24Q4 Base Case, this translated to a displacement of roughly 75% of US LPG exports to China after 2025, or the equivalent of around 8 million tonnes. Following the original 2019 developments, China resumed importing LPG from the US about a year later – we considered a similar outlook in our High Case scenario.? However, our Base Case assumed that China will curb its LPG imports from the US throughout our forecast horizon (through 2028). ? Given that the US is the largest exporter of LPG (accounting for up to half of global LPG exports in 2024), and that China is the largest importer of the fuel (accounting for roughly a quarter of total LPG imports), the impact of a Chinese retaliation against US-imposed trade tariffs is worth talking more about. We expect this to be one of our primary topics for discussion in our upcoming 2025 Q1 LPG/VLGC Market Report. ?? Read this comment and other updates on our website.

These Sanctions are Different… Crude tanker rates surged last week in response to the announcement of another round of sanctions on the Russian energy sector, starting with a 50% increase in VLCC rates on Monday.? We spoke with Marsoft’s Kevin Hazel and Lucas Avelar to get their assessment of the impact of the latest sanctions. ? ???????????????? ???????????? ???? ?????????????????? ???? ?????????????? ?????? ???????? ?????? ?????????????? ???????????? ???? ?????????????? ??????????????, ?????? ????????????, ???? ???????????? ??????????. ???? ???????? ?????????? ?????????? ???? ???? ?????? ????????????????????They could have a big impact.? If 3% of the fleet is truly removed from trading, rates should hit $100k/day, even if they start from $20k/day before the sanctions were announced. ? ???? ?????? ???????????????????? ?????????????? ???????????? ???????????? ???? ???????? ?? ?????????? ???????????????? ???? ?????? ???????????? ????????????A total of 183 vessels, 143 of which are oil tankers and roughly half of which are Aframaxes or LR2s have been sanctioned.? The sanctioned tankers accounted for: ? ?? Roughly 7% of the Aframax fleet and about 3% of the total tanker fleet as of the end of 2024.? ? ??About 40% of Russia’s total seaborne crude exports in 2024 (Russian exports accounted for about 11% of the volume of oil traded in 2024). ? ?????? ?????? ?????????????? ?????? ???????????? ?????????????????? ???????????? ???? ?????????? ???? ?????? ??????????????????? Both India and China initially signaled compliance with the sanctions, temporarily stranding several cargoes of oil aboard tankers just outside their ports. They have since indicated a willingness to receive the oil until the end of the transition window, which expires in March. Notably, Chinese private refiners have routinely purchased sanctioned oil through methods like ship-to-ship transfers to obscure its origin, largely without government reproach. However, this inefficient trade is unlikely to scale with the increased number of sanctioned vessels. ? ???????? ?????? ???? ???????????? ???? ?????? ?????????? ???????? ???? $??????,??????/??????? Assuming that the sanctions hold steady throughout 25Q1, and that China and India do indeed comply with them throughout the period, we would see substantial changes in our forecast. We would expect tanker fleet utilization to increase by as much as 3%, with crude tanker rates likely rising above $100,000/day in response. ? ?? Read the full interview on our website or via the images below. ? Overall, we believe it is unlikely that the sanctions will be enforced in full. Nevertheless, there is great uncertainty in the market, and the threat of enforcement should keep rates healthier than at the start of the year. We will monitor developments closely over the coming month and will update our analysis of their impact on the tanker market in our 25Q1 Tanker Market Report, scheduled to be completed at the end of February.

Connecting the Dots: The Transformation of China’s Economy and the End of the Commodities Supercycle This week, the?Financial Times?echoed a theme we've been exploring at Marsoft: the profound transformation underway in the Chinese economy and its implications for global markets, particularly shipping and commodities. In their article,?“The China Commodities Supercycle is Over. Will There Be Another?”, the FT outlines the decline in China's steel demand and broader shifts in its economic landscape. This analysis aligns closely with the insights we shared in our recent commentary,?“Transformation of the Chinese Economy.” At Marsoft, we highlighted how China’s economic evolution is reshaping global trade. By analyzing key indicators like steel production, oil consumption, and exports, we’ve shown how the slowdown in industrial growth is far more significant than official GDP figures suggest. The FT’s report adds depth to this discussion, underscoring the end of the real estate-driven commodities boom and the challenges of finding a "new engine" for China's economy. These trends underscore the importance of adapting to a new economic reality. At Marsoft, we’re committed to helping our clients navigate this uncertain terrain by providing data-driven insights and forward-looking analysis. As the FT article suggests, the world is entering a period of slower growth and greater complexity. Understanding these dynamics is critical to making informed decisions in shipping and trade. We invite you to read our original commentary [link in comments] and explore how our research complements the FT's observations. Together, they paint a comprehensive picture of an economic transformation that will define the next era of global trade.