Marsoft Inc.

Last week Arlie Sterling presented and participated in the Marine Money 2nd Panamá Maritime Finance & Trade Forum. The event featured several detailed and impressive presentations about Panama, the Panamanian registry, and the Panama Canal. Several speakers highlighted Panama's emergence as a global hub for airlines, illustrating the broader role the country plays in international trade and logistics. ? Arlie?gave a?presentation on ???????? ?????????????? ???????? ??????????????????.?He focused on a specific transaction structure while also addressing the long-term growth of the shipping industry. He highlighted the substantial growth in world trade and fleet size from 1985 to 2024, noting that trade grew nearly tenfold and?the?fleet size increased considerably.?He emphasized the advancements in bunker consumption efficiency, which decreased by 75% per unit of work, despite the increase in the amount of work performed. ? Arlie?also?moderated the market outlook discussion, which provided an up-to-date briefing on the situation and changes of the Panama Canal. This discussion featured distinguished speakers from Maritime Strategies International, Rystad Energy, and CB Fenton & Co.? ? Additionally, Arlie participated in a panel on financing ships in Latin America, moderated by Han Deng from Reed Smith LLP. The panel included notable figures such as Ben Padilla from FPG AIM and Kevin O’Hara from Fearnleys . ? Marsoft's involvement in the Marine Money 2nd Panamá Maritime Finance & Trade Forum underscores our commitment to advancing the maritime finance industry and supporting the growth of global trade. We look forward to continuing our collaboration with industry leaders and stakeholders to drive innovation and best practices in ship finance. ??: Marine Money

???Webinar: Navigating Value Creation in Shipping Decarbonization??? Earlier this week, Marsoft and ClimeCo hosted a highly successful webinar on funding maritime emissions reductions. We were very happy to see such a great turnout and appreciate the interest from those who attended live and those who have requested the recording. Webinar Highlights:? ?? Learn about multiple pathways to economically fund and grow your sustainability efforts ?? Explore advanced retrofits and renewable fuel use ?? Engage with innovative tools such as book and claim carbon finance For those who missed it or want to revisit the insights shared, here is the recording: https://lnkd.in/dwKJQ4SM Thank you to our speakers Emily Damon, ClimeCo Chief Growth Officer; Erika Schiller, ClimeCo Senior VP of Project Development; and Arlie Sterling, President of Marsoft Inc. and to everyone who participated and made this event a success!

We are pleased to announce the release of Marsoft’s Q1 2025 Containership Market Report. This report offers a detailed analysis of the latest trends and developments in the containership market. Key highlights analyzed in the report include: ??Geopolitical Impacts: The ongoing conflict in the Red Sea and its potential resolution, examining how these events may influence global shipping routes. ??Market Overcapacity: Insights into?a possible?resumption of Red Sea traffic?within the next two years?and its implications for liner freight rates and charter rates. ??Newbuilding Activity: An in-depth look at the record-high newbuilding activity amidst geopolitical uncertainty and weakening market fundamentals. ??Tariffs: The liner industry thrived on the coattails of geopolitical turmoil during the last four years (pandemic, Red Sea crisis). But the impact of tariffs on the global economy, world trade and the containership markets could be a whole different matter, as we discuss in our Low Case. ? Stay ahead with our expert analysis and comprehensive insights. For more detailed information, please refer to the full report available to our clients. If you are not a client, please contact one of our offices.

???? The Marine Money Maritime Finance & Trade Forum is happening this week in Panama, a key hub for shipping and finance. Marsoft’s President, Arlie Sterling, is at the heart of the discussions, moderating the "Powerhouse" panel on dry bulk, energy markets, and the Panama Canal. ?? Panelists: @Luis Ca?izales (Maritime Strategies International), Schreiner Parker (Rystad Energy), Gabriel Mariscal (C.B. Fenton & Co.) ?? Key discussion: The impact of Basel IV, rising ship values vs. earnings, and new financing opportunities. Arlie will also present "Best Credit Practices in Ship Lending", sharing insights on risk management and debt capacity. Plus, he’ll join a panel on ship finance alongside Ben Padilla (FPG AIM Americas) and Kevin O'Hara (Fearnley Securities ), moderated by Han Deng (Reed Smith LLP). ?? March 20 | Panama City – Who else is attending? Let’s connect and shape the future of maritime finance together! #MarineMoney #ShippingFinance #MaritimeIndustry #Panama

???Join Us for an Exclusive Webinar March 19 on Funding Maritime Emissions Reductions!??? Marsoft and ClimeCo are excited to invite professionals in the shipping industry to our upcoming webinar. Discover innovative opportunities to fund maritime emissions reductions, from advanced retrofits via GreenScreen to renewable fuel use through cutting-edge tools like book and claim carbon finance. Webinar Highlights: ?? Learn about multiple pathways to economically fund and grow your sustainability efforts ??Explore advanced retrofits and renewable fuel use ??Engage with innovative tools such as book and claim carbon finance Event Details: ?? Date: Wednesday 19th?March 2025 ?? Time:?2pm UK/3pm CET/10am EST ? Duration: 30 minutes followed by brief Q&A session ?? Speakers: Emily Damon, CLimeCo Chief Growth Officer; Erika Schiller, ClimeCo Senior VP of Project Development; and Arlie Sterling, President of Marsoft Inc. Don't miss this quick primer designed to help you assess and implement effective sustainability strategies. We hope you can join us! ?? Please register using this link: https://lnkd.in/gZWsqNpy. You can either join live or listen to the recording later if you have registered. #Sustainability #Maritime #EmissionsReduction #GreenShipping #Webinar #Marsoft #ClimeCo

The path to shipping decarbonization isn’t just about compliance - it’s about creating real value. ?? ? Join Marsoft and ClimeCo’s webinar to explore how advanced retrofits can generate monetizable emission reductions through the GreenScreen program and how renewable fuels can drive further impact. Don’t miss insights from Emily Damon, Erika Schiller, and our own Arlie Sterling! Register now: https://lnkd.in/gZWsqNpy

?????????????? ???????????????? ? The rapidly shifting geopolitical landscape is forcing a reassessment of assumptions regarding Russian pipeline gas flows to Europe. In light of renewed speculation over a potential restoration of Russian energy supplies under a peace agreement scenario, we wondered about the implications for the LNG and LNG tanker markets. Marsoft’s Dr. Hauke Kite-Powell and Ryan Uljua, CAIA reviewed possible implications for LNG prices, shipping demand, and the broader energy market. ? ?????????? ?????? ???????? ?? ?????????????????? ???? ???????????????? ?????? ???????????? ?????????????????????? ???????? ?????? ?????????? ????????????????????????????. ?????? ?????? ??????????????’?? ???????? ???? ?????????????? ?????? ??????????????? Our Base Case scenario calls for no change in Russian pipeline gas flows to Europe relative to current levels, and we still consider a return to pre-Ukraine-invasion volumes unlikely. But we must consider the consequences of such a return, regardless of the scenario’s likelihood. ? ?????? ???????? ?????????????? ???????????????? ?????? ???????????? ???? ?? ???????????????????? ???? ?????????????? ???????????????? ?????? ?????????? ???? ????????????? We believe the LNG markets will rapidly equilibrate. A substantial increase in Russian pipeline supplies to Europe will sharply reduce European LNG imports, pushing down LNG spot prices in Europe and, by extension, in Asia. However, lower LNG prices would also stimulate demand from price-sensitive buyers, partially offsetting Europe’s declining import demand. ? The dynamic would affect US LNG exports the most, which would face greater competition but could also benefit from longer-haul exports to Asia, thereby boosting tonne-mile demand for LNG carriers. ? ?????? ???????? ?????????? ?????? ???????????? ???????? ???? ???????? ?????? ?????????? ?????????????????? ???? ???????????? ?????? ?????? ?????????????? ?????????????????? ???? ???????????? ???????????????? ???????????????? ????????????????? In our Base Case, in which Russian pipeline flows remain cut off, LNG spot prices are relatively strong in 2025 and 2026 at $15-16/mmBtu, then decline to $10 by 2027. ? If meaningful Russian pipeline gas returns to Europe in the second half of 2025, our analysis shows that ?????? ???????? ???????????? ???????? ???????? ???? $??/?????????? ???? ????????, $?? ???? ????????, ?????? $?? ???? ????????. At those steep discounts, price-sensitive importers would likely absorb 80% of the displaced seaborne LNG no longer flowing to Europe. ? For the market to fully absorb the excess LNG, spot prices would need to fall by another $2/mmBtu to $7/mmBtu in 2026 and $6/mmBtu in 2027. --- How much would LNG prices need to drop for markets to absorb displaced volumes if Russian pipeline gas returns to Europe? And what would that mean for US LNG exports and tanker rates? The potential impact on shipping could be surprising. Read our full analysis - ?? Link in comments. ?

???15 years of climate impact – and just getting started!??? A big?congratulations?to?ClimeCo?on 15 years of pioneering decarbonization and sustainability solutions. Your work in reducing over 40?million tonnes of CO2e is an incredible milestone. At?Marsoft, we’re proud to collaborate with ClimeCo on?GreenScreen?, helping shipowners turn decarbonization into a smart investment. Through GreenScreen?, we provide world-class evaluation of retrofit options,?Gold Standard?verification of carbon reductions, and access to?carbon credit revenues — at zero upfront cost. Together, we’re making a real impact in driving shipping toward a more sustainable future. Here’s to the next 15 years of innovation and action!????

Containership Markets: A Turning Point Geopolitical uncertainty is at a high in the aftermath of events in the Middle East and the change of the US Administration. We caught up with Marsoft’s Costas Bardjis to learn more about the consequences for containership markets. ? ?????? ???????? ???????????? ???????????????????????? ?????????? ?????? ?????????????????????????? ????????????????? The liner industry enjoyed two unprecedented boom cycles during the last four years. But at the end of January 2025, containership operators and vessel providers are waking up to a different world. Most importantly, Houthi militants announced last week that they will cease their attacks on ships and allow Red Sea traffic to resume immediately, a development which could shake liner earnings in the coming months. Moreover, the change of Administration in Washington could drastically change the industry’s fortunes starting in 2025 and carrying out well beyond. ???????? ???? ?????? ???????????? ???????????? ???? ?????? ?????????????? ?????????????? ???? ?? ???????????????????? ???? ?????? ?????? ????????????????? More than any other shipping sector, the Red Sea turmoil benefited the containership markets. Regularly, 18% of global containerized trade was shipped via the Suez Canal. About 90% of this trade was diverted to longer routes around South Africa, substantially bolstering TEU-miles and increasing vessel demand by an extra 8% in 2024. As a result, liner operators enjoyed booming rates, as they barely managed to cover demand requirements by rushing newly built mega-ships into east-west services. A restoration of Red Sea shipments could render much of the extra tonnage redundant, thus reinstating overcapacity and crippling liner freight rates. --- The containership industry is at a pivotal moment. After years of booming growth, geopolitical shifts and the potential resumption of Red Sea transits are forcing operators to rethink their strategies. But how soon could Red Sea shipments fully resume, and what does this mean for liner operators? How will the new US administration’s policies impact global trade, and is there a way forward for containerized shipping amidst these challenges? ?? Read the full interview with Marsoft’s Costas Bardjis to uncover insights on these pressing topics, including the risks of overcapacity, market resilience, and strategies for navigating a turbulent future. Find the link to the complete article in the comments!

Megan Kennedy on New Tariffs Impacting LPG Trade Across multiple LPG market calls we’ve attended over the last month, industry players talked about the recent state of the market as well as what’s to come in the coming years for LPG trade. Topics of conversation ranged from lower-than-expected VLGC rates in 2024 Q4, to expected supply growth out of the US and Middle East going forward, to the startup of ethane and longer-haul ammonia trades. While all of these topics are worth deliberating, one important issue was markedly absent from presentation slide decks: the implications for US LPG trade to China now that the new Trump administration is expected to impose tariffs on goods from China. At Marsoft, we see this issue as having very significant implications for LPG trade and in particular, VLGC tonne-mile trade starting as soon as later this year. ? We covered this issue in our last LPG/VLGC Market Report for 2024 Q4 and expect it to be a major sticking point going forward. We believe it is highly likely China will retaliate against Trump-imposed tariffs by slashing LPG imports from the US, in a repeat of 2018/19 developments during the first Trump administration. In our 24Q4 Base Case, this translated to a displacement of roughly 75% of US LPG exports to China after 2025, or the equivalent of around 8 million tonnes. Following the original 2019 developments, China resumed importing LPG from the US about a year later – we considered a similar outlook in our High Case scenario.? However, our Base Case assumed that China will curb its LPG imports from the US throughout our forecast horizon (through 2028). ? Given that the US is the largest exporter of LPG (accounting for up to half of global LPG exports in 2024), and that China is the largest importer of the fuel (accounting for roughly a quarter of total LPG imports), the impact of a Chinese retaliation against US-imposed trade tariffs is worth talking more about. We expect this to be one of our primary topics for discussion in our upcoming 2025 Q1 LPG/VLGC Market Report. ?? Read this comment and other updates on our website.