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?? Black Friday Special – 25% Off Annual Subscription + Free Consultation! This Black Friday, we’re thrilled to offer an exclusive 25% discount on our 2025 annual subscription! To help you select the perfect package for your needs, we are also offering a free consultation. Our subscribers enjoy premium benefits designed to keep you ahead in understanding Ukraine’s evolving political landscape: ? Weekly Current Affairs Report: Receive expert insights on Ukraine’s political complexities, delivered to your inbox. ? Research Library Access: Unlock our comprehensive library of thematic and spot reports. ? Monthly Briefings: Participate in exclusive online and offline events, network with experts, and join like-minded professionals. ? Tailor-Made Data Requests: Have specific questions? Get personalized insights within five working days. ?? Offer ends November 31 – Don’t miss out on a full year of enhanced access, reports, and exclusive events for 2025! ?? To claim this Black Friday offer, book a consultation here: https://lnkd.in/gsqVQDTf ?? Explore more at https://lnkd.in/dqNKZ8Jw The KI Insights, your inside partner in Ukraine

?? The Week Ahead by KI Insights: What we’re watching in the coming week #Ukraine ?? Thanksgiving next week will disrupt business and politics – even for those outside the US. #thanksgiving ?? Office of the President head Andriy Yermak is expected to travel to the US to meet Trump & Co. Talks may cover an upd. Victory Plan, proposals on further US support (ia lend-lease), business deals (incl. ones targeting Elon Musk), and US-UA troop swaps in Europe. #Ukraine #Trump ?? Romania’s Nov. 24 1st round presidential vote could lead to a mainstream-populist runoff. Social Democrat PM Marcel Ciolacu will likely win the 1st round, but a split center-right vote could favor right-wing populist AUR’s Simion (latest poll - 19%). #Romania #Elections ?? NATO’s Montreal session ends Nov. 25 amid fears of Russian hybrid warfare. Topics discussed likely include the Baltic cable sabotage & Trump’s post-inauguration NATO plans. Security tensions with Russia are front & center. #NATO #Russia #Europe If you would like to add your event announcement, please get in touch with us at [email protected]

Our weekly report is out! ?? ? Biden greenlights long-range strikes in Kursk, crossing a self-imposed red line – likely as a result of North Korea's growing role as a co-belligerent. This should unlock more support for Ukraine from South Korea (and more in-depth collaboration) & others. #Ukraine #Russia ? Zelensky's Resilience Plan is more a political manifesto than a proper strategy. Directionally correct (and a possible basis for campaigning) but likely to be bullwhipped by the outcome of Trump-Zelensky talks. #Ukraine #Politics #Trump ? German elections (Feb 23) may bring a more decisive pro-Ukraine govt – but too late to play its part in the looming Trump-led attempt to align Ukraine, Europe and Russia on a potential ceasefire deal. #Ukraine #Germany #USElection2024 ? Reforming Ukraine's Accounting Chamber boosts oversight of budgets incl. Western aid. along w/ BEB & anti-corruption efforts, it could deliver a step change in Ukrainian governance, depending on implementation. #Ukraine #Governance ? The Slovak-Azeri gas deal revives prospects for Ukraine as a transit, or re-export, country for Azeri gas after the Ukraine-Russia deal expires this year. However, attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure could sabotage such options. #Ukraine #Energy #Russia ? Pre-election fever continues to rise in Kyiv (overly optimistic, in our view), with discussions of a short (May) and long (Oct.) timeline. The shorter version would favor the current team, which can leverage its admin resources to catch opponents off-guard. ? UA Ambassador to the US, Oksana Markarova, is rumored to be on her way out. This could mollify Republicans, incl. House speaker Mike Johnson, who called for her dismissal – though there are no clear replacements (Ihor Zhovkva and Andriy Melnyk are frontrunners for the role). ?? Read "Our views" on these events straight in your mailbox. Register to benefit from the deep-dive analysis of Ukraine's political and business developments: https://lnkd.in/dSJf9JFx??#UkraineUpdate #UkraineAnalysis ?? Save the date! KI Insights' next briefing, "Post-War Electoral Scenarios," on Nov 29, 16:00 (Kyiv). Don't miss it! #Ukraine #Elections

?? The Week Ahead by KI Insights: What we’re watching in the coming week #Ukraine ?? G20 Summit Nov. 18-19: Brazil seeks to position itself as a leading voice for LATAM and the Global South. Biden and Xi set to attend, while Lavrov steps in for Putin (on fears about the ICC warrant). #G20 #Brazil #GlobalSouth ? The G20 Summit comes on the heels of the APEC Summit in Peru, which focused heavily on China’s role “fighting protectionism” (ie lobbying against "Trump tariffs", sanctions), N. Korean war involvement, and Brazil’s pivot to Beijing. #APEC #China ?? The Rada Nov. 19-22 plenary will focus on the 2025 Budget (based on an unsigned tax hike bill-that could be further delayed by election prospects-irking the IMF). Expect discussion on teachers vs. prosecutor salaries, local finance, road fund and decriminalizing porn etc. ? Parliament may also vote on the legal status for military paramedics and the procedure for writing off military property (notably relevant for decommissioning drones and EW kit). #Ukraine #DefensePolicy ?? Romania Election Nov. 24: PM Marcel Ciolacu leads (24.8% in recent poll), but leader of radical party AUR George Simion (with possible FSB links and opposing Ukraine aid, poses risks (21.3%), amid reports of Russian interference. #RomaniaElection #UkraineSupport ?? "UP 100" Awards Nov. 20: "Ukrainska Pravda" to honor 100 Ukrainians influencing Public Admin, Culture, Defense, and more, spotlighting the country’s resilience and innovation. #Ukraine #UP100 ?? Zelensky’s Internal Victory Plan: Zelensky is expected to unveil a 10-point internal strategy addressing energy, defense, and cultural resilience, developed with input from businesses and civil society. #Ukraine #VictoryPlan ?? If you would like to add your event announcement, please get in touch with us at [email protected] -- The weekly analysis is part of our subscription package. You can read our full reports at https://lnkd.in/dT9dPtbG or sign up and receive them straight in your mailbox. KI Insights also offers commercial research services: due diligence, white-label reports, and tailored sectoral reports. For more details, reach out to us at [email protected] -- Photo: Ukraine's Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal (L) and Romania's Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu (R) during Shmyhal's official visit to Bucharest, Romania, on Aug. 18, 2023. (Daniel Mihailescu/AFP/Getty Images)

The Week Ahead by KI Insights: what we are watching in the coming week #Ukraine ?? ReBuild Ukraine kicks off in Warsaw on Nov. 13-14, spotlighting infrastructure, housing, and energy reconstruction. Expect talks on mobilizing private capital, EU-Ukraine business partnerships and mixed reactions to Trump’s potential impact on reconstruction. #USPolitics ?? COP29 begins Nov. 11-22 in Baku, aiming to boost climate funding as the 1.5°C goal slips out of reach. Trump’s return complicates joint climate action, while an “Azeri gas deal” could resurface in the background. #COP29 #ClimateCrisis #Trump ?? APEC Leaders’ Meeting wraps up Nov. 15-16 in Peru, focusing on regional trade, security, and environmental issues. Expect key discussions on US-China tensions, the Russia-Ukraine war, and Trump’s influence ahead of the G20 summit in Brazil. #APEC2024 #USChina #G20 ?? House race update: Republicans near control, with 213 seats to Democrats' 202. A likely 3-4 seat majority would give Trump a unified government, but he’ll need to navigate the Freedom Caucus's resistance on issues like Ukraine. #USHouse #USPolitics #Trump ?? Trump awaits Justice Juan Merchan’s Nov. 12 ruling on his appeal to overturn 34 felony counts in NY. A favorable ruling could clear Trump’s record, but if denied, he could face a Nov. 26 sentencing (likely more attempts to delay/ dismiss). #Trump #USLaw #NY --- The weekly analysis is part of our subscription package. You can read our full reports at https://lnkd.in/dT9dPtbG or sign up and receive them straight in your mailbox. KI Insights also offers commercial research services: due diligence, white-label reports, and tailored sectoral reports. For more details, reach out to us at [email protected] --- Photo: Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump arrives for a campaign rally at the Salem Civic Center in Salem, VA, U.S. on Nov. 2, 2024. (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

#DonaldTrump’s election?victory?positions him as potentially the most powerful US President in history. What does it mean for #Ukraine? Read our new report: https://lnkd.in/dKYSZNA9 There may be reasons for hope in a Trump presidency bringing a new vitality and solutions to the table, but Europe and Ukraine best act quickly to prepare in case a best-case scenario doesn’t materialize. Photo: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Republican presidential nominee, former U.S. President Donald Trump, gather for a meeting in New York City, US on Sep.27, 2024. (Alex Kent/Getty Images)?

As the US heads to polls, a few reflections about what this means for Ukraine & globally. Ultimately, the choice of #Trump or #Harris will lead to a very different world. But in this, we’ll try to take a more structural view of the US political system #Election2024 First, it’s worth considering just how much the US election has put the world on pause. Already in June, we started hearing noises that any RU-UA negotiations would be on hold until a new president was voted in. Yes, “the next US president” was discussed as far back as 2022, but by Aug/Sept major decisions where being kicked months down the road! War was still raging, 1000s dying – but in a sort of inertia where the only thing that mattered was the position in which a new US leader would find things. It’s not just Ukraine. There’s a case to be made that various intl. bodies, ironically even BRICS, are held back by the Trump-Harris bifurcation (see the recent summit’s lack of substance). If anything, this shows just how much influence the US still has on the world. Because it's more than just Trump vs. Harris. At the most extreme, it's no-limits Trump (he could line up a loyal Supreme Court, Senate, House, Party) vs. gridlocked Harris (with Senate & perhaps House) holding up legislation. NB: this is part of the appeal for tech-bro Sacks-Musk crowd. Incorrectly thinking a country is like a start-up, they see a strong executive as a virtue unto itself (to be fair, there is value in a strong “vertical”; on the flip side, countries shouldn’t “fail fast”). A gridlocked administration is an undervalued risk of the election. The House holding up desperately needed aid to Ukraine for months was a small taste of how bad things could be. It costs – at best – thousands of lives. Partisan political logic means the best pressure points are things the other side cares about. The more important something seems, the better – it forces the other side onto the defensive, exposed to disinformation & populism. If Harris wins but loses the House/Senate, it makes sense for Republicans (at least short-term) to use UA support as an issue against her, or at least to extract other (politically painful) concessions – whether they believe it or not. An unclear victory is arguably worse. Court cases, protests… could drag on for months. During this time, much of the Western political infrastructure (and, to be fair, the rest of the world) would be in limbo. The rest of the world is watching (& taking notes on how to exploit the system). Whether it wants to or not, the US is the world’s policeman (a role from which it derives huge benefits). Multipolarity, despite its appeal on paper, is a much more chaotic path. *** Subscribe to receive more analysis & insider perspectives on Ukraine. You can read our full reports at https://lnkd.in/dqNKZ8Jw or sign up & receive them straight in your mailbox. We also offer commercial research services: due diligence, white-label reports & tailored sectoral reports.

?? The Week Ahead: Key Developments Impacting Global Politics & Markets ? All eyes are on the? Nov. 5 U.S. elections (President, Senate, House). Former President Trump holds a slight advantage, and a Republican win could reshape foreign policy, particularly with unpredictable shifts in U.S. support for Ukraine. If Vice President Kamala Harris prevails, there’s a high likelihood of domestic gridlock that could affect foreign priorities. #USElection #Ukraine With Republicans projected to secure the Senate—and possibly the House—a Trump administration would likely have greater power than in his first term, with Congress and the Supreme Court aligned. This could mean free rein to execute his unique policy vision. We believe Trump is looking to secure Russian neutrality vs. China (an unlikely outcome), at Ukraine’s cost. Although private discussions are reportedly more favorable to Ukraine than Trump’s public de facto pro-Russian comments, difficult trade-offs would likely follow #USElection2024 #ForeignPolicy If Harris wins, she may face Senate obstruction centered on opposition to Ukraine support. Meanwhile, contested results could spark civil unrest, likely less severe than “January 6” but enough to divert attention from Ukraine. ? In Moldova, the Nov. 3 presidential runoff is expected to be tight as opponents of incumbent Maia Sandu consolidate around challenger Alexandr Stoianoglo. Moldova’s EU referendum barely passed (with 50.35%, underscoring how fragile Westward integration can be in the region. #Moldova #Russia ? A closed-door meeting took place in the Verkhovna Rada with military leadership, aiming to inform MPs’ perception of the dire situation at the front. In the past week, Russia has seized an unprecedented 200 square kilometers, and the intensified offensive is causing disillusionment in government circles. Considering the current outlook and public mood, this topic is likely to feature prominently in public communications in the weeks ahead. ? Lastly, the APEC Summit will convene in Peru (Nov. 10-16), to be followed by the G20 in Brazil (Nov. 18-19). Expect discussions on the “Global South’s” future and whether Russia’s vision of an anti-West bloc is a reasonable path forward #APEC #G20 The weekly analysis is part of our subscription package. You can read our full reports at https://lnkd.in/dT9dPtbG or sign up and receive them straight in your mailbox. KI Insights also offers commercial research services: due diligence, white-label reports, and tailored sectoral reports. For more details, reach out to us at [email protected]

?? ?? The Week Ahead by KI Insights: what we are watching in the coming week?? ? The next Rada’s plenary week is scheduled for Oct. 29 - Nov. 1. The parliament is expected to adopt a bill on plea bargaining in corruption cases, a requirement of the Ukraine Facility Plan for receiving the next tranche from the EU. Lawmakers also anticipate passing a bill to reform medical and sanitary commissions that determine disability status, following recent revelations of widespread corruption in these bodies. ?Ukraine’s 2025 budget is likely to be adopted in its first reading, though further changes are expected before the final vote. We also anticipate the Rada will vote on a bill to align Ukrainian legislation with the Financial Action Task Force on Money Laundering standards, a component of the EU Association Agreement. ?President Volodymyr Zelensky will address the Nordic Council Session in Reykjavik on Oct. 29, focusing on “Peace and Security in the Arctic.” While in Iceland, Zelensky will meet with Nordic prime ministers and hold a joint press conference. Zelensky anticipates new aid packages and announced plans for a new cooperation framework with Northern Europe to boost defense, political, and economic ties. He also hopes for Nordic support for Ukraine’s Victory Plan. ?Meanwhile, Finnish President Alexander Stubb will meet Xi Jinping in China on Oct. 29. The discussions are expected to include the Russo-Ukrainian war. Xi recently returned from the BRICS summit in Russia, where he privately discussed the war with Putin. ?Moldova's presidential runoff on Nov. 3 pits pro-EU incumbent Maia Sandu against pro-Russian Alexander Stoianoglo. Sandu remains competitive, though her hardline EU stance and anti-Russia rhetoric have cost her some moderate support. ?Next week, on Nov.8, the informal European Council in Budapest will discuss the Georgian election results. President Charles Michel has called for a transparent investigation into alleged irregularities. European monitors report that the elections were marred by vote buying and voter intimidation. In response, President Salome Zourabichvili has urged citizens to protest. The weekly analysis is part of our subscription package. You can read our full reports at https://lnkd.in/dT9dPtbG or sign up and receive them straight in your mailbox. KI Insights also offers commercial research services: due diligence, white-label reports, and tailored sectoral reports. For more details, reach out to us at [email protected] Photo: Moldovan President and candidate for Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) party Maia Sandu prepares to cast her ballots for the presidential election and referendum on joining the European Union at a polling station in Chisinau on October 20, 2024. (Photo by DANIEL MIHAILESCU/AFP via Getty Images)

KI Insights Monthly Briefing?already tomorrow! As always, our briefing will end with a?live Q&A session, where you’ll have the chance to get answers directly from our experts. This time,?we are joined by a guest expert — MP Volodymyr Tsabal, Secretary of the Committee on Budget of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine. Got a question for our experts? We’d love to hear from you in advance! If you have specific questions you’d like addressed during the Q&A, please feel free to submit them using this quick form: https://lnkd.in/daVGx7Qi