International Institute of Forecasters

?????? ????????????: ???????????? ?????????????????????? ???????????????????? ???????? ???????????????? ???? ?? Accurate demand forecasts support effective decision-making. To generate more accurate and useful forecasts, we first ask ourselves: What decisions are we supporting? While forecasting methods and/or models, especially in machine learning and statistics, are developing rapidly, demand forecasting principles remain essential. In ?????? ????????, we’re organising ???????????? ?????????????????????? ???????????????????? ???????? ???????????????? ???? ?? online course, led by Ivan Svetunkov and Kandrika Pritularga. The course provides a structured approach to forecasting, emphasizing the importance of decision-making in forecasting methodologies. We first ran it in November 2024, welcoming 14 participants from academia and industry. ?? ???????? ?????????? ???????? ???????????? ????????????? ? Strong foundation in forecasting principles ? Real-life case studies with hands-on practice ? Tailored advanced topics based on participant interest (Last time: Intermittent Demand) ? Certification opportunity from International Institute of Forecasters (the certification fee is not included in the course fee) ?? ???????? ???????? ???????????????????????? ??????: ? "I enjoyed the quizzes and workshops. Every question was answered comprehensively." ? "Real-world examples backed by strong theory. The tutors are highly knowledgeable!" ? "Even as a seasoned practitioner, I gained new insights into forecasting models and best practices." ?? More details:?https://lnkd.in/emfMSMBE ???Join us in May 2025!?Sign up here:?https://lnkd.in/effjDbtT ???Special discount available for groups of three or more! #forecasting #machinelearning #datascience #statistics #course #business #demand #rstats #decision #inventory #supplychain #planning #planner

A special issue of the International Journal of Forecasting on judgment in forecasting is out, edited by Robert Fildes, looks very promising, take a look: https://lnkd.in/dJiCbA2M https://lnkd.in/ddade9xv International Institute of Forecasters

Ten days left! Don't miss your chance to present at #ISFconf2025 in Beijing! Submit your abstract by March 21st and join us for this premier #forecasting conference. Read Press Release here: https://lnkd.in/ewkxBd5n. Abstract submissions: https://lnkd.in/d8PCtfmr. #Symposium #CallForPapers Laurent Ferrara Feng Li Yanfei Kang Tao Hong George Athanasopoulos IIF Early Career Forecasters IIForesight

I had the pleasure of attending the Foresight Practitioner Conference 2025 last week! I didn't know one could learn so much in just two days. Thank you to the International Institute of Forecasters for organizing this amazing conference. I look forward to attending (and competing in) the next one! Here are some key takeaways: - Good forecast projects reflect and respect the decision-making hierarchy of the organization they are a part of. - Model choice should be a function of organizational complexity, data quality, forecast horizons, and decision horizons—not just accuracy. - Everyone in the business is speculating. Some use math - others, their gut. Good decision-making around a forecast is an information asymmetry problem and not just an error reduction problem. - Professionals maximize business value! The process around `Forecast Value Add` is key to ensuring accountability and usability of the forecast algorithm. - It is common knowledge that Gen-AI can add value to forecasting as a whole. The wisdom lies in knowing where it will add value and where it won’t. A big thanks to all the speakers: Stephan Kolassa, Nikos Kourentzes, Ruby Amutha K., Skander Hannachi, Simon Spavound, Lauren Davis, Jeff Baker, Yue Li, Mark Chockalingam, and Robert Stevens; the IIF team - Matthew Schneider, Jim Hoover, Michael Gilliland, Chris Fry - and all the amazing folks who shared their insights in some of the most stimulating conversations I’ve had in a while! Finally, thank you to my team at SLKone, LLC for their consistent efforts and investment in my growth.

What does a professor do during spring break? Last week was my spring break. I was helping Matthew Schneider host the Foresight Practitioner Conference as the local chair, and joining Chris Fry as a judge for the 2025 IIF Forecasting Practice Competition. Of course, the most demanding job of the week was chairing the 2nd International Symposium on Energy Analytics (ISEA2025), a long overdue event since ISEA2017. We had 11 invited presentations, 4 hours of Rafal Weron's IIF Distinguished Lectures on electricity price forecasting, and a dinner of authentic LanZhou hand-pulled noodles, all packed in two days! (The second picture was taken at the noodle restaurant. Almost everybody finished their noodles before I took the picture!) The attendees survey was sent out right after the conference. The responses were overwhelmingly positive, with everybody rating it 5/5 (Great! Definitely will recommend ISEA to others). To help us plan for the next ISEA, please sign up the interest list from the conference page (https://lnkd.in/gTe8i3zT). The presentation slides are also being uploaded there for those who didn't get to attend in person last week. Many thanks to all the speakers Mario E Arrieta-Prieto Arnie de Castro Ahmed Aziz Ezzat Zheming Gao Katie McConky Richard Povinelli Shreyashi Shukla Jingrui (Rain) Xie Jie Zhang Feng Ye Arkadiusz Lipiecki Rafa? Weron for delivering high quality and insightful presentations. Also thank all the attendees for the support and kind words! We will see you all in the 3rd ISEA. International Institute of Forecasters

One more day to apply for #ISFconf2025 Travel Award to attend in Beijing. International Institute of Forecasters grants travel awards to enable researchers from around the globe to attend International Symposium on #Forecasting. These awards are primarily for students in the area of forecasting and secondarily for non-student #forecastingresearchers and #practitioners. To ensure that we support as wide a range of applicants as possible, applicants who have not been awarded a travel grant in the past two years will be given priority. Find details here and apply: https://lnkd.in/g7euvDjf Laurent Ferrara Yanfei Kang Feng Li George Athanasopoulos Elaine Deschamps Gergely Gánics IIF Early Career Forecasters Ulrich Gunter Tao Hong

Wayfair is the 2025 Forecasting Impact Competition winner and solved an extremely challenging retail problem: ● Monthly demand forecasts for 1 to 18-month horizon at the SKU-level across millions of products (over 75% had 0 sales). Tens of thousands of new products a month, trend breaks, stockouts, promotions, and complex seasonality. ● Their scientific-driven system, Demetra, smartly utilized machine learning and performed better than solely using an AI solution. Reduced error by 13% and Bias by 11% over a legacy model, improved forecast stability, reduced forecast refresh time, from 22 days to 5 days, and drove financial impact in the tens of millions of dollars. George Monokroussos Arsa Nikzad Ryan Mitchell Chris Fry https://lnkd.in/gFTXgJp7

Sign up to attend the latest #MacroFor seminar, with Todd E. Clark, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, on March 25 at 3:30pm CET. He will present?Forecasting with Shadow-Rate VARs. Read more and register: https://lnkd.in/epGV5QJw. Laurent Ferrara Gergely Gánics IIF Early Career Forecasters International Institute of Forecasters #forecasting

A huge thank you to everyone who attended and contributed to the success of #FPC2025! A special shoutout to Matthew Schneider for his hard work and leadership in hosting such an informative and fun #forecasting and #networking event. Sincere appreciation to everyone on the Organizing Committee and Competition Committee! Look forward to our next #ForesightPractitionerConference! Laurent Ferrara Matthew Schneider Michael Gilliland

Sincere congratulations to Wayfair for winning the 2025 IIF Award for the Impact of Forecasting in Practice! Thank you George Monokroussos Arsa Nikzad Ryan Mitchell and all of the participants in the 2025 IIF Forecasting Practice Competition https://lnkd.in/gFcPcqEY for sharing your excellent work with the forecasting community at the Foresight Practitioner Conference https://lnkd.in/gMtG3_4W. It was truly a pleasure to learn from this talented group. Additional Finalist Teams: HP: Cara Curtland, Harshvardhan ., Chuanren Liu, Adam Ghozeil A.P. Moller - Maersk: Marco Zugno, Julija Tastu, Lasse Petersen, Ewa Aleksandra Szulc-Wodarska Ipiranga: Eduardo Romanus Open Grid Europe GmbH: Mathias Einck, Janina Zittel, Ralf Werner, Uwe Gotzes, Thorsten Koch, Milena Petkovic International Institute of Forecasters Press release: https://lnkd.in/g5YWN98V