Institute for the Study of War

NEW: Major Publication: Ukraine and the Problem of Restoring Maneuver in Contemporary War Ukraine’s unfolding Kursk Campaign shows that the battlefield is not fully transparent despite pervasive surveillance by both sides and that concealing operational intent can still achieve operational surprise. The war in Ukraine has seen the most advanced use of offensive and defensive electronic warfare (EW) in history. Pervasive reconnaissance drones have made the battlefield nearly transparent — except when the adversary has been able to blanket it with effective defensive EW. Despite this formidable technological obstacle (and many others, discussed below), the Ukrainians, against great odds, were able to conceal their intent for long enough to launch a successful penetration attack and subsequent exploitation into Russian territory. In a new paper, “Ukraine and the Problem of Restoring Maneuver in Contemporary War, ISW President Kimberly Kagan and Director of the Critical Threats Project at American Enterprise Institute Frederick Kagan offer a new framework within which Ukrainian forces and their Western backers can break the current positional warfare and allow Ukraine to restore maneuver to the battlefield. Learn more: https://lnkd.in/ezqYY7HX

Publishing Schedule Note: ISW will not publish daily maps or reports today due to Thanksgiving. Our normal publication schedule will resume on Friday, November 29. You can find our latest reports here: Iran Update: https://lnkd.in/eKG6bp_C Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment: https://lnkd.in/eKG6bp_C

NEW: The Israel-Lebanon ceasefire has held as it went into effect on November 26. The LAF began to deploy forces, including armored elements, to southern Lebanon. Read More: https://lnkd.in/eKG6bp_C Other Key Takeaways: Iranian-backed Iraqi militias indicated that they would continue to attack Israel despite the ceasefire in Lebanon. Syrian opposition forces launched a surprise offensive into regime-held territory in northeastern Syria, seizing several military sites and villages around Aleppo. Israeli forces interdicted a shipment of weapons that Iran sent to Palestinian militias in the West Bank. The shipment included three 107-millimeter rockets.

NEW: Ukrainian forces continue to leverage Western-provided weapons to conduct strikes using more complex strike packages against military objects in Russia's deep rear. Read More: https://lnkd.in/ebr8-HDc Other Key Takeaways: Russian President Vladimir Putin and Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev met in Astana on November 27 and signed a joint statement deepening the Russian-Kazakh strategic partnership within the framework of Russia's efforts to establish a "new world order." The Russian military command may have imposed controversial restrictions on the use of personal vehicles by Russian volunteers delivering military and humanitarian aid to Russian troops on the frontlines, likely as part of an ongoing force centralization effort. Ukrainian forces recently advanced within Toretsk, and Russian forces recently advanced in the Pokrovsk and Kurakhove directions, and within the main Ukrainian salient Kursk Oblast. The Kremlin continues to promote the "Time of Heroes" program that aims to militarize the Russian government at the local, regional, and federal levels as a way to prevent the return of "Afghan syndrome" in Russia.

Map via The Guardian From our Nov. 26 Iran Update: https://lnkd.in/exz_3mPi "The ceasefire contains several elements that will prove difficult to implement. The decision to rely on the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) and UN observers in Lebanon to respectively secure southern Lebanon and monitor compliance with the ceasefire agreement makes no serious changes to the same system outlined by UNSC Resolution 1701, which ended the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah War."

NEW: Russian officials continue to demonstrate that the Kremlin aims to seize more territory in Ukraine than it currently occupies and is unwilling to accept compromises or engage in good faith negotiations, no matter who mediates such talks. Read the full report: https://lnkd.in/eXBhCuct Key Takeaways: The Russian military's rate of advance since Fall 2024 has notably increased recently compared to its rate of advance in 2023 and the rest of 2024, but recent Western media reports comparing recent Russian gains to those at the start of Russia's full-scale invasion continue to mischaracterize the gradual and tactical nature of Russia's recent advances. US National Security Council Spokesperson John Kirby confirmed Ukraine's usage of US-provided ATACMS against Russia amid official Russian confirmation of recent Ukrainian ATACMS strikes. Russian forces launched a record number of drones against Ukraine on the night of November 25 to 26 as Russia continue to increase their use of decoy drones in long-range strike packages targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure in order to overwhelm Ukrainian air defense systems. Russian state media reported that the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) replaced former Russian Southern Military District (SMD) and Southern Grouping of Forces commander Colonel General Gennady Anashkin with Eastern Military District (EMD) acting commander Lieutenant General Alexander Sanchik. Russian forces continue to execute Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) amid a surge of recent Russian war crimes. The Russian State Duma is preparing the legal mechanisms to remove the Taliban from the Russian government’s official list of banned terrorist organizations. Ukrainian forces recently regained lost positions near Kreminna, and Russian forces recently advanced near Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, and Velyka Novosilka.

NEW: Israel and Lebanon approved a ceasefire to end the war in Lebanon on November 26. This ceasefire and its terms are tantamount to a Hezbollah defeat. Hezbollah has abandoned several previously-held ceasefire negotiation positions, reflecting the degree to which IDF military operations have forced Hezbollah to abandon its war aims. Israel has accomplished its war aim through two months of military operations in Lebanon and this ceasefire. Hezbollah claimed incorrectly that it defeated Israel. Read the full report: https://lnkd.in/exz_3mPi Key Takeaways: Shortcomings of the Ceasefire: The ceasefire contains several elements that will prove difficult to implement. The decision to rely on the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) and UN observers in Lebanon to respectively secure southern Lebanon and monitor compliance with the ceasefire agreement makes no serious changes to the same system outlined by UNSC Resolution 1701, which ended the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah War. The difficulties in implementing this deal mean that Hezbollah and Iran can recover from this setback if the United States and Israel fail to prevent Hezbollah and Iran from doing so. Israeli Air Campaign in Lebanon: The IDF struck approximately 180 Hezbollah targets across Lebanon since CTP-ISW's last data cut-off on November 25 marking its most intense day of airstrikes on Beirut since September 2024. Iranian Use of Pharmaceutical-based Agents: Iran is actively violating the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) and continues to advance its ability to develop and deploy its chemical weapons capabilities both inside and outside of Iran. Israeli Ground Campaign in Lebanon: Israeli light infantry advanced to the Litani River near Deir Mimas and Arnoun, southeastern Lebanon, on November 26. The IDF elements also operated about 10km from Israeli territory in Wadi Saluki, making this advance the deepest penetration into Lebanon since Israeli forces began operations in early October 2024.

Mapping Israel’s Invasion of Lebanon: What a Cease-Fire Would Look Like on the Ground https://lnkd.in/eqtzmvPA

NEW | Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 25, 2024: Russian forces continue to make significant tactical advances in western Donetsk Oblast and are coming closer to enveloping Velyka Novosilka and advancing towards important Ukrainian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) supplying the rest of western Donetsk Oblast and running into eastern Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhia oblasts. Recent Russian advances near Velyka Novosilka are consistent with ISW's November 24 forecast that Russian forces could attempt to envelop Velyka Novosilka via its eastern and northeastern flanks. Full report: https://lnkd.in/eqqqDWAs Additional Key Takeaways: Russian advances in western Donetsk Oblast may become operationally significant if the Russian command properly exploits these recent tactical successes, which is not a given. Russian advances in western Donetsk Oblast do not automatically portend the collapse of the Ukrainian frontline. Ukrainian forces struck a Russian oil depot in Kaluga Oblast and an airbase in Kursk Oblast on the night of November 24 to 25. Ukrainian military officials continue to warn of potential Russian ground operations against Zaporizhzhia City, though the timeline and scale of this offensive operation remain unclear due to the operational constraints imposed by ongoing Russian operations in Kursk and Donetsk oblasts. North Korea is reportedly expanding a key weapons facility likely used to supply Russia with ballistic missiles. The Kremlin signaled that it would remove the Taliban from its list of prohibited organizations amid intensified Russia-Taliban rapprochement. Russian forces recently advanced in southwestern Toretsk and south and southeast of Pokrovsk. Russian command posts are reportedly relying on Chinese-made radios for internal communications because Russia cannot domestically produce enough quality radios for the Russian military.

NEW | Iran Update, November 25, 2024: Israel and Lebanon are expected to reach a ceasefire agreement within the next few days that would achieve stated Israeli war aims. The US-proposed ceasefire stipulates that the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) and the United Nations Interim Force In Lebanon (UNIFIL) will be the only armed actors operating south of the Litani River, thus requiring Hezbollah fighters south of the Litani to disarm or relocate. The agreement also gives the Lebanese government the sole authority to purchase or produce weapons in Lebanon, “dismantles” any armed group infrastructure south of the Litani River that does not belong to the LAF or UNIFIL, and requires all Israeli forces to withdraw from Lebanese territory. Full report: https://lnkd.in/e-S4pDZb Key Takeaways: Israeli Air Campaign in Lebanon: The Israeli Air Force intensified its air campaign in Beirut and on strategically significant Hezbollah targets across Lebanon, including by striking 12 Hezbollah military headquarters in Beirut. The IDF probably calculated that destroying these headquarters would further inhibit Hezbollah’s ability to reconstitute its military capabilities by degrading organizations that inform Hezbollah’s decision-making and planning. West Bank Smuggling: Israeli forces thwarted a small arms smuggling attempt from Jordan into the West Bank on November 25. Iran and its partners in the West Bank likely seek to exploit these smuggling networks, even if they do not control the networks themselves. It is unclear if Iranian-backed militias are facilitating the actual act of smuggling across the West Bank-Jordan border, but Iranian-backed militias are key elements of Syria-Jordan drug and weapons smuggling networks.