Notes from the Road - México (March 10-16, 2025)
Mexico has been a central part of my reality since living post-college for over three years in this multi-layered cultural gem (Chiapas, Guanajuato, CDMX). My admiration for Mexico, its traditions and its people is boundless. And then there’s macro, market realities, companies with problems reaching new investors and chaos from Mexico’s northern neighbor. I landed in Monterrey not knowing which reality I might be facing.
Mexican GDP has been painfully short of potential for decades (see the insightful “A tale of two Mexicos” from 2014: https://lnkd.in/ec4yYUwb) and is anemic now. Mexico’s fiscal deficit is close to 6% which is a 30 yr record — and this certainly points to long-time mis-management of many key economic segments including Pemex (must be privatized) and the overall energy complex in general. Mexico’s manufacturing advantages are vast as is their leverage via supply chain control vs a volatile and chaotic neighbor. Of course risk #1 would be a US demand slowdown followed by a likely (self-created) recession.
And despite this, Mexico appears to be thriving. After visiting over 15 top corporates with my InspIR Connect brilliant colleague, Mirella Villela (part of InspIR Group - Investor Relations), and talking to any animate object I could find - especially small store owners, Uber drivers, hotel workers and bartenders, the story feels consistent: a) a building boom; b) sensibly cautious corporates; c) and a population that has gotten behind its plucky president, showering Claudia Sheinbaum with an 80%+ popularity rating. Mexico is showing smarts and resiliency.
Talent-filled corporates (including some of the country’s biggest) are frustrated by not “reaching the last mile” (not reaching new long-only investors - they know this is costing them valuation points). We’re certainly here to lend a helping hand, assisting management teams in taking more control over their investor outreach efforts. We’re here to keep Corporate Mexico stronger than ever.
La Roma, Condesa and Polanco are buzzing day and night with an infectious energy (and "gentrificación"). I rediscovered old “friends” -- the streets of Coyoacán — all was beyond vibrant and then the shrimp cocktail at El Jardin del Pulpo at the mkt (after 30 years it’s great to go back to a place and things taste as delicious as that fixed taste in your head). And then a mesmerizing Tool show with 30K fans under a starry moonlit windswept night.
Mexico is humble. These next months/years will require greater boldness. This is the moment for Mexico to take more control over its own destiny - zero vanity projects, agile reconfiguring their energy complex and fiscal sensibility.
Yes, when the neighbor to the north gets a cold (or has lost its mind), Mexico will feel some repercussions, but it does feel like Mexico can position itself to grind through a bit and wind up in far better permanent?shape.
#mexico #em #latam #IR #RI #GEMS
