Hawkhill Homes

?? Demand from population growth is one of the key drivers of housing. 2024 domestic migration trends: All top 20 U.S. metro areas gaining population are in the Sun Belt, from Dallas-Fort Worth (24,550 net migrants) to smaller cities like Lakeland, FL, and Myrtle Beach, SC. ?? No Snow Belt metros made the list, per U.S. Census Bureau data analyzed by Jay Parsons, Rental Housing Economist. This reflects a decades-long shift from the Northeast and Midwest to the South and West, driven by affordability, quality of life, and economic opportunities. The rise of remote work and post-pandemic preferences continue to fuel this trend, with smaller Sun Belt cities gaining traction alongside major hubs. ?? ?? In 2024, major employers made big moves into DFW: Goldman Sachs is building a massive 800k sq foot new campus on over 3 acres for more than 5,000 employees, e2open relocated its HQ from Austin, the Texas Stock Exchange (TXSE) is launching to rival Wall Street, @H-E-B is expanding rapidly, and the data center market is set to double by 2026. The region continues to attract top companies and talent, reinforcing its position as a powerhouse for growth. ???? Goldman Sachs executives have said Dallas' culture adds to its allure. "When people come, the feedback that I hear quite a bit is that they are overwhelmed by that Southern hospitality and open-door culture that we tend to have," Oksana Beard, Global Head of Debt Capital Markets, Real Estate at Goldman. #populationgrowth #SFR #DFW

Unlocking Mobility for All Families Starts with Housing. A recent report by McKinsey & Company highlights the urgent need to close the 8.2-million-unit housing gap in the U.S. Housing isn’t just about where we live — it’s about access to opportunity. Yet for too many families, the dream of stable, affordable housing is slipping further out of reach. Across the U.S., rising home prices, high mortgage rates, and limited rental options have created a crisis that affects millions, from young professionals to working families to retirees. Without action, this shortfall could grow to nearly 10 million by 2035, further straining families and limiting economic opportunity. The impact of inaction is clear: housing instability limits job access, school choices, and financial security. The good news? Investing in housing isn’t just about shelter—it’s about mobility. By unlocking land, streamlining financing, and rethinking public-private partnerships, we can make homeownership and rental stability more attainable for all families. The potential impact is enormous: ?? 2.3 million housing units could be unlocked with targeted initiatives ?? 1.7 million jobs created through increased development ?? $2 trillion added to GDP by addressing housing supply shortages The path forward isn’t simple, but it is possible. With innovative housing models, smart investments, zoning reform, and private-sector innovation, we can create a future where every family—not just a select few — has a shot at stability and upward mobility. #housingshortage #housinginnovation #CoVista

?? Q4 2024: Single-Family Rental (SFR) REITs Continue to Show Strength ?? The largest SFR REITs—AMH and Invitation Homes—closed 2024 on a high note, demonstrating resilience, strategic growth, and long-term fundamentals in the rental housing sector. ?? Key Financial & Operational Highlights ? AMH reported $436.6M in revenue (up 6.8% YoY) and 3.6% same-home NOI growth. The company acquired 1,632 homes, expanding its footprint to over 60,000 homes. ? Invitation Homes generated $659M in revenue (up 5.6% YoY) and 4.7% same-store NOI growth. They acquired 501 homes in Q4, reaching a total of 85,221 homes under management. ?? Growth & Investment Strategy ?? AMH: Delivered 463 newly built homes and secured $500M in debt financing, reinforcing its commitment to scalable, high-quality housing. ?? Invitation Homes: Expanded its third-party management services, enhancing non-rent revenue streams while maintaining a 96.7% occupancy rate. ?? CEO Insights Bryan Smith, CEO of AMH: "Our strong leasing momentum and disciplined growth strategy continue to position AMH as a leader in the industry, delivering stable returns for stakeholders." Dallas Tanner, CEO of Invitation Homes: "With Same-Store NOI growth of 4.6% and AFFO per share growth of 6.7%, we delivered one of the strongest performances among public residential REITs in 2024." ??? Managing Market Challenges Despite multiple hurricanes impacting Texas, Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas, AMH and Invitation Homes navigated disruptions effectively. ?? AMH reported a $5M hurricane-related charge in Q4, while Invitation Homes estimated a net impact of $14M post-recovery efforts. ?? Looking Ahead With raised 2025 guidance, both firms remain confident in continued demand for high-quality rental homes. Their ability to scale while maintaining operational efficiency reinforces the durability of the SFR sector in evolving market conditions. #SFR #longtermfundamentals #marketcycles

The 2025 Housing Market: What’s Next for Home Prices, Interest Rates, and Supply? J.P. Morgan J.P. Morgan Research projects a 3% rise in home prices this year and are cautiously optimistic. With mortgage rates expected to settle at 6.7% by year-end, demand remains historically low, and supply constraints persist. For real estate investors, institutional buyers, and homeowners, policy shifts under a second Trump administration could have a significant impact. From potential zoning reforms to changes in immigration and construction labor, the housing market is facing both headwinds and opportunities. Key Takeaways: ?? Inventory is rising but still historically low – High mortgage rates are keeping existing homeowners locked in, preventing the market from normalizing. ?? Buyer demand remains weak – Without mortgage rates dropping closer to 5%, affordability will continue to be a major challenge, pricing many buyers out of the market. ?? Policy changes may have unintended consequences – Lower immigration could reduce housing demand but also tighten labor supply, slowing new construction and exacerbating affordability issues. ?? Institutional investors remain active – Despite affordability constraints for individual buyers, private equity and large-scale investors are still finding opportunities in the single-family and build-to-rent (BTR) sectors. ?? Construction trends shifting – Multi-family development is slowing as high interest rates make financing more expensive, while single-family inventory remains limited. ?? Real estate services demand is evolving – With fewer transactions, institutional owners and landlords are prioritizing asset maintenance, renovations, and strategic property management to maximize returns. #housing #SFR #homeprices #strategicpropertyservices https://lnkd.in/e7xaRVHx

?? ?? Housing Market Outlook in 2025 - recent constructive commentary from Blackstone, Jon Gray and Ivy Zelman, Zelman & Associates - A Walker & Dunlop Company this past week. ?? Blackstone Sees Signs of a Recovery — But Caution Remains ?? During their Q4 earnings call, Blackstone reported record deployment in real estate ($20B, up 70% Y/Y) and reaffirmed their belief in a gradual commercial real estate recovery: ? Debt markets improving: Borrowing costs have eased from 9% to 6%, and CMBS issuance tripled in 2024. ? Supply crunch persists: New construction starts are down by two-thirds since 2022 in logistics and apartments, Blackstone’s two biggest sectors. ? Cautious optimism: Blackstone expects stronger transaction activity in the second half of 2025, but notes that real estate remains on a slow path to recovery. ?? Ivy Zelman, one of the most respected voices in housing, recently shared her 2025 outlook—and it’s clear we’re facing a market defined by affordability challenges, not just supply constraints. ?? 75% of homeowners are locked into sub-5% mortgage rates, keeping existing inventory tight. ?? New home sales will grow, but only modestly (5% annually through 2026). ?? Public builders dominate (54% of new homes), leveraging lower capital costs to outcompete private builders. ?? Affordability is the biggest challenge, with rising home prices, higher for longer interest rates, and stagnant wage growth at play. ?? But Risks Remain: ?? Labor shortages & immigration challenges could further disrupt housing production. ?? Tariffs on Canada & Mexico may drive up costs for materials like lumber & concrete. ?? Insurance costs are skyrocketing in high-risk markets, pushing homeowners toward alternative housing solutions or new markets altogether. What needs to change? Ivy’s take: Lower impact fees (which add 15%+ to home prices in markets like CA) and adjust FHA loan limits to better reflect regional affordability. #reboundpositioning #realestatecycle #2Hmarkethealing https://lnkd.in/eBxmt9cV

?? A good read published recently by PwC Urban Land Institute "2025 Emerging Trends in Real Estate" in their 46th edition provides an outlook on real estate investment trends reflecting views and surveys from industry experts including investors, fund managers, developers, property companies, lenders, and consultants.?? 1?? Notably, Dallas - Ft Worth was rated the nation's top spot for investment and development for 2025 (6th year in top 10). Population and a strong economy made DFW the place to buy, build and finance property. 1?? Summary: ?? The Time Has Come: Real Estate’s Next Chapter ?? “We are on the cusp of the next upturn in the real estate cycle, and now is the time to be thinking about planning, laying the groundwork for the next two to three years of growth.” The real estate industry is gearing up for an exciting period of recovery and renewal. As post-pandemic disruptions fade, cyclical forces like the Federal Reserve’s pivot to reducing interest rates are creating opportunities: ?? Interest Rate Reductions: Lower rates signal relief from rising inflation and construction costs, which can spur transaction activity and ease market pressures. However, investors remain cautious, as rate cuts may also point to a slowing economy, potentially affecting net operating income (NOI) growth. ?? Modernized Stock & Supply Dynamics: Key factors in today’s market include: Newer office buildings offering wellness-focused amenities that attract tenants over outdated properties. Senior housing developments, an underserved market, as aging populations grow by thousands daily. ?? Emerging Trends & Opportunities: Real estate cycles often usher in fresh opportunities. This year’s Emerging Trends in Real Estate report highlights improving conditions and survey insights on market recovery. ?? Top Real Estate Markets for 2025 The Sunbelt continues to dominate, but the leaderboard is evolving: Dallas/Fort Worth takes the crown as the #1 real estate market, with unparalleled growth and economic diversity. Florida’s resurgence: Two cities land in the top five, showcasing strong demand and investment appeal. “Movers and Shakers”: Markets like Manhattan and Charleston are climbing in institutional investor interest, offering unique diversification opportunities. ?? DFW Spotlight: America’s Real Estate Capital Dallas/Fort Worth’s rise to the top isn’t surprising: Booming employment: Up 11.2% since 2020, with a diverse economic base. Affordability & Returns: Median home prices (~$382K) are competitive, while annualized real estate returns near 8% make it a magnet for investors. Resilience & Momentum: Despite potential climate risks, DFW’s growth and innovation drive its enduring appeal. As the industry turns the corner, now is the time to seize new opportunities in housing, commercial real estate, and emerging markets. With the right strategy, the next real estate cycle could be a defining moment for investors and developers. #goldenage #DFW

...and now Zillow's view (part III) for top 2025 housing markets, on the heels of National Association of REALTORS? and ResiClub, some consistent themes: ?? The 2025 Housing Market Outlook: Buffalo Stays Hot, Midwest & Northeast Markets Dominate ?? The housing market conversation for 2025 is heating up, with consistent reports from ResiClub, NAR, and now Zillow identifying Buffalo, N.Y. as the hottest housing market for a second consecutive year. Why Buffalo again? ?? It's all about supply trailing demand, job growth outpacing new home permits, and relative affordability compared to pricier coastal markets. Other top-performing markets heading into 2025 include: ? Indianapolis ? Providence ? Hartford ? Philadelphia These markets share common themes: low inventory, strong job growth, and affordability for buyers compared to major metros like NYC, Boston, and D.C. Meanwhile, Sunbelt boomtowns that saw explosive growth during the pandemic are cooling as affordability pressures and insurance costs rise. ?? Key Insights from the Data: ?? Buffalo remains at the top due to a high job-to-housing ratio. ?? Indianapolis sees the highest home price appreciation forecast for 2025. ?? Virginia Beach jumps 23 spots thanks to job growth. Major Northeast markets like Providence, Hartford, and Philly stay hot. What’s driving this? Demographics and inventory. Baby boomers and millennials remain active homebuyers, with both generations fueling demand in more affordable regions.

The 60 Strongest U.S. Markets Heading into 2025 according to Lance Lambert ResiClub via Fast Company, following up to NAR's latest report. https://lnkd.in/euPF8ENr Home prices nationwide are up 2.3% year-over-year, slightly below the historical average of 4.7%. But in 60 metro areas, sellers are still thriving, with prices surging 4.7%+ year-over-year—well above average. ?? Standouts include: NYC-Newark, NJ: +7% Providence, RI: +6.7% Hartford, CT: +6.7% Cleveland, OH: +5.9% Las Vegas, NV: +5.2% Buffalo, NY: +5.2% Chicago, IL: +5% Northeast and Midwest markets maintain low inventory and strong demand, while some Sunbelt regions face affordability pressures, insurance shocks, and rising inventory.

Top 10 Housing Markets to Watch in 2025 According to a new report from the National Association of REALTORS?, these 10 metro areas are set to be the hottest housing markets next year (in no particular order): ?? San Antonio, TX ?? Hartford, CT ?? Boston, MA ?? Charlotte, NC ?? Grand Rapids, MI ?? Greenville, SC ?? Indianapolis, IN ?? Kansas City, MO ?? Knoxville, TN ?? Phoenix, AZ Why these cities? They’re seeing strong job growth, stable mortgage rates (forecast to hover near 6% in 2025), and more available homes — with a large share of younger adults able to afford buying. NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun notes these metros share “important factors” such as stronger income growth, net migration, and better financing options compared to other areas. From the South to the Midwest and Northeast, affordability and inventory are key drivers. As Yun points out, “The worst of the affordability challenges are over as more inventory, stable mortgage rates, and continued job and income growth pave the way for more Americans to achieve homeownership.” https://lnkd.in/ed96yb4m

“Investing before the all-clear sign,” says Nadeem Meghji, is key to being successful across market cycles.?Don’t miss Nadeem’s update on how #Blackstone is navigating the current environment, and his outlook on #realestate in 2025. ????