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Harvest Strategy Group, Inc. has been establishing predictability in unpredictable economic cycles for nearly two decades in the #autofinance industry. How can we help with your deficiency recovery strategy? #dontsweatthedebt Thanks Bill Ploog for the steady stream of valuable industry data.
Follow up to last week’s post re: Exeter’s first-time auto loan repossession rate plummeting from nearly 3,400 in Oct-2022 to less than 100 in Nov-2022, and remaining low ever since. Of 18 lenders with publicly offered auto loan asset-backed securities (ABS), this trend is unique to Exeter. What happened? Data reveals Exeter now has more churning in late-stage (3+ payments past due [PPD]) delinquency … more loan modifications … and more charge-offs without an associated repossession. 1) Repossessing vehicles of accounts 3 and 4 PPD practically ended, resulting in more loans flowing to 5 PPD … For example, 5 PPD share of late-stage delinquency increased from 3% in Oct-2022 to 12% by Sept-2024. And, the number of accounts churning in 5 PPD nearly quadrupled. 2) Account modifications swelled … For example, 70% of 3 PPD accounts were modified in the month they moved back to being current / 1 PPD … that percent climbed to 81% as of Sept-2024. 4) Repossessions as a percent of repossession + charge-offs without repossession decreased from around 40% to about 1% between late 2022 and Sept-2024. If you would like a deeper cut of the data, to see what you can uncover, send me a message and email address. Data source: Publicly offered auto loan ABS of 18 of U.S. largest auto lenders. Data used to create charts is comprised of over 25 million distinct auto loans over period covered.