Governor's Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness

Today is the deadline to apply for federal assistance-

From State Climatologist Jay Grymes Tropics Update: Thursday 5 AM - now as T.D. #19 … expected to become Sara later today - moving to the west at 16 mph - expected to stall and meander near and over Central America - hurricane strength now in doubt thru the next 5 days - 20+” of rain possible over northern Honduras - expected to move in the Southern Gulf on Tuesday as a tropical storm - mid-week turn and acceleration to the NE suggested by virtually all models - current set-up keeps Louisiana out-of-play Sara will be the Atlantic Basin’s 18th ‘named’ tropical system for 2024. ******************************* Comments are mine … follow the NHC and NWS … they are the experts. Credit/thanks to: NHC & NWS Tropical Tidbits WeatherNerds WeatherModels GOHSEP & LSU John M. ("Jay") Grymes III State Climatologist

Louisiana — Renters and homeowners in Ascension, Assumption, Lafourche, Jefferson, St. Charles, St. James, St. John the Baptist, St. Mary and Terrebonne parishes, who were affected Hurricane #Francine have ?????????? ???????? ???????? to apply for assistance. ??November 16 is the last day to apply for FEMA Federal Emergency Management Agency assistance. Ways to Apply??

Get A Game Plan! Our GOHSEP crew had a great time discussing emergency preparedness with the Rotary Club of Gonzales, LA . Find more preparedness info at getagameplan.org and download the GetAGamePlan App.

NWS Lake Charles- The Weather Prediction Center has placed parts of Southwest Louisiana in a rare high risk for excessive rainfall today which means there is a greater than 70% chance of flash flooding across parts of Calcasieu, Beauregard, Jeff Davis, Allen, Evangeline, Vernon and Rapides parishes today. Historically, nearly 90% of all flood related property damage and almost half of flood related deaths occur on high risk days.

ArkLaMiss Update- NWS Jackson- Flash flooding is possible this weekend, with 2 to 4 inches of rainfall over a few hours. This could lead to localized flash flooding, especially in low-lying and urban areas. Timing will be focused mainly this afternoon into tonight.

From State Climatologist Jay Grymes Tropics Update: Thursday 4 AM Key Point: no tropical threat posed by Rafael to Louisiana - Cat-2: winds at 105 mph, moving NW at 12 mph - Rafael expected to turn west then SW over the next 5 days - forward speed slows to a crawl by Sunday/Monday while system weakens - NHC still showing 10% chance of TS winds along the LA coast - recommend ignoring NHC ‘Arrival Times’ for TS winds - NHC highlighting another area near the Leeward Islands ... expected to move WNW with 30% development odds over the next 7 days

Update from State Climatologist Jay Grymes- Tropics Update: Wednesday 5 AM Key Points: (1) uncertainty for Rafael's forecast beyond 3 days will remain unusually high (2) threat to Louisiana continues to decline (3) if a wind threat does develop for LA, it comes after the weekend - ‘Cat 1’ Rafael: max winds of 90 mph, moving NW at 14 mph - NHC has Rafael as borderline ‘Cat 2 / 3’ before reaching Cuba - enters SE Gulf late Wednesday/early Thursday as ‘Cat 2’ - tropical wind field likely to remain fairly compact - slow weakening as it moves across Gulf … although NHC still showing ‘Cat 1’ into Saturday - forecast confidence nosedives into the weekend - forward speed drops to ~5 mph by Sunday/Monday - NHC has Rafael as minimal TS by Monday - NHC cone still includes coastal LA … but NHC TS Arrival Times seem unlikely ************************************************************* Opinions are mine ... the NHC and NWS are the experts and provide the official forecasts.

NWS Lake Charles Update-

From State Climatologist Jay Grymes A little lengthy … Tropics Update: Tuesday 5 AM ? - TS Rafael -- max winds of 60 mph -- strengthening as it heads for Cuba - NHC has Rafael as ‘Cat 1’ this evening and a ‘Cat 2’ on Wednesday before reaching Cuba - NHC puts Rafael in the SE Gulf as low-end Category 2 on Wednesday evening - still anticipating slow weakening beginning on/by Thursday - NHC currently drops Rafael to TS intensity by 12 AM Saturday - still anticipating reduced forward speed as it crosses central Gulf - forecast uncertainty increases dramatically from Friday into the weekend ... wide spread in forecast paths - latest NHC TS Arrival Times still appear to be more than a day ahead of ‘reality’ for SE Louisiana based on latest forecast track and wind field envelope ? Thoughts as of 5 AM Tuesday: (1) rains/showers for much of the state for elections … occasional stronger t-storms possible for northern & central LA but minimal severe threat as front stalls over the state (2) high uncertainty for Rafael in terms of intensity and location for the weekend … LA threat for significant tropical impact seems low to very low ... I'm thinking that TS winds may not reach the coast ... coastal flooding could be an issue (3) primary concern will be rain rather than wind for GameDay … and I’m thinking that even the heavy rain threat is low to very low.