Arbo

Most pending projects in PJM's interconnection queue are non-firm, intermittent #renewables like solar and hydro. #Naturalgas makes up just 1.2% of proposed capacity, with only two gas plants — both by Wolf Summit Energy in West Virginia. These are strong candidates for RRI’s fast-track approval due to their alignment with PJM’s reliability criteria. FERC’s upcoming rulings will shape PJM’s energy infrastructure and set precedents for managing AI-driven demand growth and interconnection reform. If co-located generation faces new restrictions, demand could shift back to grid-connected plants, reinforcing the need for more natural gas infrastructure. The Show Cause Order could reshape co-located generation economics, while PJM’s fast-track process may accelerate centralized gas development. A #FERC ruling on co-location could also set a tariff precedent for other grid operators, influencing on-site generation agreements nationwide. Key dates: PJM’s response to the Show Cause Order is due March 24, 2025. RRI applications run from February 28 to March 14, with project selections expected in Q2 2025. What to watch: Which projects PJM selects for RRI and whether the program influences future grid planning. If successful, it could be replicated in other data center hubs like OH, IA, and IN.

Meet one of our newest Arbonauts, Ricky Leon! Since joining the team as Director of Gas Infrastructure Intelligence, Ricky has lent his years of industry experience and advanced analytical skills to the enhancement of Arbo's Project Intelligence Alerts — helping customers uncover actionable and accurate insights to the timing of flows and in-service dates. As a former business and finance leader in #naturalgas and #LNG sectors, and engineer supporting major infrastructure projects, Ricky's expertise is adding great value for our customers. Ricky is proud Texan ?? whose family has found a home away from home ?? on Capitol Hill. Outside the office, he's a devoted new dad ???? and loves spending time outdoors. ?? Ricky has an MBA from Emory University, an M.S in Construction Management from the University of Houston, and a B.S. in Mechanical Engineering from the University of Texas.

While President Trump's Emergency EO may signal federal priorities, it cannot: - override state authority, - dictate cost recovery models, or - compel investment where market conditions don’t support it... ...in our view, leaving the core midstream challenges intact.

Southgate has filed an application to amend its certificate with #FERC — now less than half the original length, it may be an important test case for market need analysis after the Regional Energy Access Expansion (REAE) project litigation. We think its smaller environmental footprint and strong case for market need, supported by utility-backed precedent agreements and state-mandated energy planning, all contribute to a lower risk of project-halting litigation. #FERC has now clearly outlined its approach to market need in the REAE rehearing order, but further litigation may still shape its long-term viability. Whether courts uphold its refined analysis or impose new constraints will influence future project certifications.

Arbonauts are hopeful for 2025 legislation that prevents another #permitting litigation saga like Mountain Valley Pipeline — a project costing $9,666,688,932 (initial estimate $3.7b.)

Director of Permitting Intelligence, Thomas L. Sharp was invited on NGI's fine podcast to discuss how we model and quantify permitting litigation risks to #pipelines and #LNG terminals — and some recent developments in the project landscape. https://lnkd.in/dYcZ_2jw

Six months after the D.C. Circuit vacated the Regional Energy Access Expansion project’s (REAE) certificate of public convenience and necessity on July 30, 2024, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) reinstated REAE’s certificate on January 24, 2025. Part of FERC’s reasoning for reinstating REAE’s certificate is based on its market assessment of the project. FERC found that local distribution companies (LDCs) and marketers support REAE’s development. LDCs and marketers signed REAE’s precedent agreements, which bind prospective customers to transport energy commodities with the pipeline. FERC confirmed that precedent agreements with LDCs and marketers continue to be strong indicators of market need unless there is specific evidence to the contrary. In this context, we analyzed the regulatory risk of the MVP (Mountain Valley Pipeline) Southgate project. Following the previously mentioned REAE litigation, the project filed an amendment to its certificate on February 3, 2025. Unlike REAE, MVP Southgate is supported by utilities. Utility-backed precedent agreements are generally viewed as stronger indicators of market need than LDC- or marketer-backed agreements, as utilities must meet public service obligations, and LDCs/marketers primarily focus on business development opportunities. Therefore, considering FERC’s position on LDC- or marketer-backed agreements, it seems unlikely that FERC would determine that there is insufficient market need for MVP Southgate. We compare the composition of MVP Southgate’s potential customers with those of REAE below:

President Trump has promised to revive Williams' long-stalled?Constitution #pipeline, which would transport #naturalgas from Pennsylvania to New York. In a recent ArView, we looked back at the project's #permitting journey, characterized by years of litigation, to demonstrate the need for meaningful (legislated) reform.

Stakeholders should pay the most attention when agencies begin to apply different standards. Arbo's Director of Permitting Intelligence, Tom Sharp is a great follow on this topic. ??

For #EnergyInfrastructure development to truly take root in the Northeast, #CleanWaterAct reforms affecting state authority will be required.