GlobalSource Partners, Inc.

Read Alex Schwartsman's report on the outlook for #Brazil's interest rates. In this report, Alex discusses: - His expectation that inflation will remain above the target and that the labor market will remain tight - Why the hawkish tone from the COPOM was appropriate - The prospects for the currency in the international scenario and the domestic environment #EmergingMarkets #MacroEconomics https://lnkd.in/eh6p8HxW

Alfredo Thorne reports on the latest developments in #Peru's economy. In this report, Alfredo delves into: - The political situation, as April 12, which marks the beginning of the campaign season and a period of increased vulnerability for the president, draws near; - The economy, including the recent outperformance in activity and the balance of payments; and - The thinking behind the Central Bank’s decision to stand pat at its most recent meeting, and what that implies for the rest of the year. #EmergingMarkets #FixedIncome #Macroeconomics https://lnkd.in/eYqqpwDV

Read Jan Hagemejer’s report for a deeper understanding of #Poland's macro dynamics and politics. In his report, Jan explores: - Recent inflation data and CPI trends - The Central Bank’s reaction function and what can be observed depending on the party in power; - Recent polls for the upcoming presidential election and who could make it to the second round. #EmergingMarkets #Macroeconomics #FixedIncome

Read Mauricio Gonzalez’s report on recent developments in #Mexico's economy. In his report Mauricio discusses: - The recent contraction in industrial production and the prospects for manufacturing, in particular - Banxico’s recent rate decision and why it may have been hasty - Why the imposition of a 25% across-the-board tariff imposed by the US would not translate into a direct impact of the same magnitude #EmergingMarkets #Macroeconomics #Fixedincome

Read Fernando Naranjo and Felix Delgado’s report on #CostaRica, #ElSalvador and #Guatemala and how the new geopolitical reality is impacting activity. In this report, Felix and Fernando discuss: - How first signals from US Secretary of State Marco Rubio are optimistic for Costa Rica, El Salvador and Guatemala; - How trade zones in Costa Rica Free are helping maintain a low current account deficit, returning the country to stable monetary and financial conditions; and - How activity is positive in all three countries, but subject to persistent external risks. #EmergingMarkets #Macroeconomics

Read Joaquin Cottani’s report on the current valuation of #Argentina's peso. He weighs in on the debate, setting out the reasons he believes the peso is overvalued, including: - The cepo and its restrictions set the peso level below equilibrium. - The negative output gap is evidence of a peso overvaluation. - The current account is likely to deteriorate sharply this year, indicating that the real exchange rate is out of equilibrium. #EmergingMarkets #MacroEconomics #currency

Read Igal Magendzo and Robert Funk’s report current economic and political developments in #Chile. In this report they discuss: - Signs of an economic turnaround – what is driving growth and what is not - The Central Bank’s shifts in strategy and how to read the Bank’s recent communications - The prospects for Bachelet III and what they signify about Chile’s political scene today. #EmergingMarkets #MacroEconomics

Read Joaquin Cottani’s take on the current IMF negotiations and what they hold for #Argentina’s fiscal and financing future. In this report, Joaquin discusses and evaluates: - Recent economic news, including on activity and export taxes - The prospects for the current FX regime - Hypotheticals on what the new IMF agreement might look like in terms of disbursements and financial flows between Argentina and the IMF. #EmergingMarkets #Fixedincome #MacroEconomics

Jan Hagemejer on #Poland - What are the odds of an early election, conditional on the PIS winning? #EmergingMarkets