Global Markets Investor

??Has the US fallen into a RECESSION? US GDP growth is tracking at -1.6% in Q1 2025, according to Atlanta Fed GDPNow. However, the model adjusted for gold imports is tracking at +0.4%. What is happening here??? https://lnkd.in/dmG3K_vV

??Another insane week in the markets, the bounce has finally come on Friday: Overall, stocks down, VIX down, dollar down, gold up. Performance this week: S&P 500 -2.2% Nasdaq -2.3% Russell 2000 -1.6% Dow Jones -3.0% Bitcoin -2.1% Bank Index -2.8% VIX -8% front mth VIX futures 0% Gold +2.6% Silver +4.7% WTI Crude Oil +0.3%

??US consumer sentiment is in a DEPRESSION: Consumer sentiment index fell to 57.9 in March, the lowest since July 2022. This is in line with the Financial Crisis of 2007-2009. Sentiment is even worse than in the 1990s recession. Americans are saying the economy is falling.

??US job market is in a recession: Americans not in the labor force who want a job SPIKED 414,000 to 5.9M in February, the highest since October 2021. As a % of employment, this rose to 3.6%, in line with the 2008 Financial Crisis and above the 2001 recession peak. Insane.

??The risk of historic EXODUS out of US stocks is underappreciated: Over the last 5 years, a record $18 TRILLION foreign capital has flowed into US equities. This is ~60% of US GDP! Foreigners already started to sell dollar assets. What if this trend accelerates? HUGE RISK

??To put the market sell-off into perspective: The S&P 500 declined 10% from the peak as of Thursday's close. Over the last 45 years, the median S&P 500 drawdown has been ~10%. The largest drawdown was ~48% during the Financial Crisis. Is there more to come after a bounce?

??Retail buying has been absolutely INSANE: Mom-and-pop investors have bought a MASSIVE $8 BILLION in US stocks and ETFs in 5 days ending Tuesday. Retail investors have purchased stocks at one of the fastest rates on record, while at the same time stocks have been HAMMERED.

?S&P 500 dropped 10% from its all-time high and officially entered a CORRECTION territory on Thursday. This was the 7th FASTEST correction on record going back to 1929 and the fastest since the 2020 CRASH. In effect, $5.5 TRILLION value was ERASED.

This rising GOLD trend is likely to continue as the global economic, geopolitical, and market uncertainty rises and the financial system trends are rapidly changing. In other words, gold might be heading for one of the best outperformances versus US stocks in DECADES. READ MORE BELOW https://lnkd.in/dQUzB2CU

The big shift in gold has been partly at the expense of US Treasuries as foreign governments have diversified their reserves away from the US dollar. The world’s gold reserves have jumped ~$720 billion while reserves in Treasuries have declined by $300 billion in 3 years. https://lnkd.in/dQUzB2CU