Global Markets Investor

??Dumb money is FURIOUSLY buying US equities: Retail flows into technology stocks have more than TRIPLED in just a few weeks. Mom-and-pop investors have bought the largest US tech stocks amid the Nasdaq 100 falling into a correction. The index is down ~10% from the peak.

??This is absolutely INCREDIBLE: Hedge funds' long/short ratio dropped to the lowest in at least 5 YEARS. The ratio is even below the 2020 CRASH levels. Hedge funds shorting of the US stock market has been really intensive. They sold US equities in 10 of the last 11 WEEKS.

??Equity capital is flowing from the US to Europe: Net inflows to the largest European ETFs have SPIKED over the last weeks to ~$200 billion, the biggest in YEARS. Inflows to the US have sharply slowed at the same time. Foreigners own ~20% of the ~$90 trillion US equity market

??Gold prices run have been truly REMARKABLE: Gold market capitalization hit nearly $21 TRILLION, an all-time high. This comes as gold prices have surpassed $3,000 per ounce for the first time in HISTORY. Over the last 5 years, gold prices have soared 102%. Got gold?

??Money is flowing OUT of crypto at a RECORD pace: US Bitcoin ETFs have posted 5 weeks of outflows of $5.5 BILLION. In the last week of February, Bitcoin ETFs saw a whopping $2.6 billion in withdrawals. Bitcoin prices are down ~23% from their peak. Volatility is skyrocketing

??The US has the lowest tariff barriers among all G20 countries: Taking into account non-tariff barriers such as regulations, rules of origin, and quotas Argentina, South Korea and the UK have the largest trade barriers among G20. Trade war will last longer than many think..

??S&P 500 earnings outlook is getting grimmer: Wall Street has lowered their profit forecasts for the S&P 500 firms in 22 of the last 23 weeks. Skyrocketing recession fears and overall economic uncertainty have been behind the worsening outlook. Is there more downside ahead?

??US recession ALERT: Atlanta Fed GDPNow model is now estimating US real GDP DECLINE of -2.1%, down from -1.6% on March 7. The estimate adjusted for gold imports (which will be not included in GDP calculation) has not been updated. However, it is likely tracking GDP at ~0%.

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