Superforecasters vs the Futures When it comes to forecasting Federal Reserve rate decisions, conventional wisdom says markets should have the edge. But the data tells a different story. Good Judgment’s Superforecasters have consistently outperformed the futures markets in forecasting Fed moves—by 30% on average in 2024 and early 2025. Their forecasts are both accurate and reflect greater confidence where it matters. This raises big questions: If a group of skilled generalists can beat the pros, should financial institutions rethink how they integrate alternative data into decision-making? Data journalist Joel Suss with the Financial Times takes a deep dive into this phenomenon. Read the full piece (*may require a subscription to FT’s Monetary Policy Radar) to see why this trend isn’t just a fluke, or learn how we can help your organization make better decisions by exploring our services: https://lnkd.in/gdGRst2U #Superforecasting #Finance #FederalReserve #AlternativeData #DecisionMaking
Good Judgment Inc
IT 服务与咨询
New York，NY 3,762 位关注者
Actionable, early insight and better decisions start with the science of Superforecasting?.
关于我们
Good Judgment Inc seeks to improve forecasting for better decision-making. The company is a commercial spinoff from the Good Judgment Project – the most successful participant in a research program sponsored by IARPA (the intelligence community's equivalent of DARPA) looking for means to improve crowd-sourced geopolitical and economic forecasts for policymakers.
Good Judgment offers forecasts from its professional Superforecasters on both subscription and custom bases. We also bring the science of accountable forecasting to public and private sector clients through training workshops, online training programs, and internal forecasting "tournaments."?
The company's principals include:
? Warren Hatch, CEO ([email protected]);
? David Wayrynen, co-founder and CTO ([email protected]);
? Marc Koehler, Vice President ([email protected]); and
? Anna Zeng, CLO ([email protected]).
In addition, CEO Emeritus Terry L. Murray ([email protected]), Barbara A. Mellers ([email protected]), and Philip E. Tetlock ([email protected]), are co-founders and advisors.
- 网站
-
https://www.goodjudgment.com
Good Judgment Inc的外部链接
- 所属行业
- IT 服务与咨询
- 规模
- 11-50 人
- 总部
- New York，NY
- 类型
- 私人持股
- 创立
- 2014
- 领域
- geopolitical forecasting和cognitive de-biasing training
产品
![点击此处查看FutureFirst forecast monitoring tool]()
FutureFirst forecast monitoring tool
金融研究软件
Good Judgment Inc’s FutureFirst monitoring tool makes it easier to monitor forecasts from its global network of professional Superforecasters. The customizable, interactive dashboard gives subscribers 24/7 access to crowd-sourced insights and precise probability values about uncertain events in real time. FutureFirst provides unrivaled early signals that help subscribers anticipate market-moving and world-shaping events. This one-of-a-kind monitoring tool quantifies these insights daily as crowd-sourced probabilistic forecasts, along with regular reports that pinpoint the key factors that the Superforecasters cite when updating their forecasts. Armed with this early warning, clients can seize opportunities sooner and mitigate risks more effectively. Good Judgment’s elite Superforecasters have decades of collective experience in assigning well-calibrated, quantifiable probability forecasts to complex geopolitical, economic, legal/regulatory, public health, and technology outcomes.
地点
-
主要
获取路线
100 Park Avenue
Floor 16
US，NY，New York，10017
Good Judgment Inc员工
动态
-
New in the Financial Times! Financial markets rely on experts, algorithms, and vast amounts of data—yet a group of ordinary people consistently outperforms them in forecasting Federal Reserve interest rate decisions. Good Judgment’s?Superforecasters, identified through the research of Philip Tetlock and Barbara Mellers, have once again demonstrated their edge. In 2024 and early 2025, they outperformed the futures markets by?30% on average—a trend that’s becoming harder to ignore. This isn’t just a one-off. The data continues to show that alternative forecasting methods can rival, and even surpass, traditional market predictions. See the latest data-driven analysis in the?Financial Times. Should financial institutions be paying closer attention? #Superforecasting #AlternativeData #FederalReserve #Finance
?? New piece from me in the Financial Times: Superforecasters continue to beat the market A group of laypeople have generally out-predicted futures markets when it comes to what the Federal Reserve will do on interest rates My analysis of data from 2023 through to the first Fed meeting in 2025 shows that superforecasters have been consistently performing better. They are also currently more hawkish than the market for upcoming Fed decisions... https://on.ft.com/3D0QOIo
-
“Team members must disagree without being disagreeable.”? - Phil Tetlock & Dan Gardner in Superforecasting.? https://lnkd.in/dj-_W8C #TetlockTuesday?#Superforecasting?#GoodJudgment
-
-
New in the Financial Times! Financial markets rely on experts, algorithms, and vast amounts of data—yet a group of ordinary people consistently outperforms them in forecasting Federal Reserve interest rate decisions. Good Judgment’s?Superforecasters, identified through the research of Philip Tetlock and Barbara Mellers, have once again demonstrated their edge. In 2024 and early 2025, they outperformed the futures markets by?30% on average—a trend that’s becoming harder to ignore. This isn’t just a one-off. The data continues to show that alternative forecasting methods can rival, and even surpass, traditional market predictions. See the latest data-driven analysis in the?Financial Times. Should financial institutions be paying closer attention? #Superforecasting #AlternativeData #FederalReserve #Finance
?? New piece from me in the Financial Times: Superforecasters continue to beat the market A group of laypeople have generally out-predicted futures markets when it comes to what the Federal Reserve will do on interest rates My analysis of data from 2023 through to the first Fed meeting in 2025 shows that superforecasters have been consistently performing better. They are also currently more hawkish than the market for upcoming Fed decisions... https://on.ft.com/3D0QOIo
-
“The point of making forecasts is not to tick all the boxes on the ‘how to make forecasts’ checklist. It is to foresee what’s coming.”? - Phil Tetlock & Dan Gardner in Superforecasting.? https://lnkd.in/gdGRst2U #TetlockTuesday?#Superforecasting?#GoodJudgment
-
-
Join us this February for the?Superforecasting Workshop, designed to help you refine your judgment and make more accurate predictions. Led by top Superforecasters, this hands-on training covers key forecasting techniques, cognitive bias mitigation, and effective collaboration strategies. Reserve your seat:?https://lnkd.in/eruMpbe2 More info:?https://lnkd.in/dj-_W8C #Superforecasting #GoodJudgment #DecisionMaking
-
-
“It’s natural to be drawn to the inside view. It’s usually concrete and filled with engaging detail we can use to craft a story about what’s going on. The outside view is typically abstract, bare, and doesn’t lend itself so readily to storytelling. So even smart, accomplished people routinely fail to consider the outside view. ... Superforecasters don’t make that mistake.”? - Phil Tetlock and Dan Gardner in Superforecasting.? https://lnkd.in/gdGRst2U? #TetlockTuesday?#Superforecasting?#GoodJudgment
-
-
Strong forecasting skills lead to better decisions. In our upcoming?Superforecasting Workshop, you'll learn practical techniques from world-class Superforecasters, improve your probabilistic thinking, and sharpen your ability to anticipate change. Seats are filling up—register now:?https://lnkd.in/eruMpbe2 More details:?https://lnkd.in/dj-_W8C #Forecasting #Superforecasting #ProfessionalDevelopment #GoodJudgment
-
-
Start the year strong with our February Superforecasting Workshop! Ready to enhance your forecasting and decision-making skills? Join our Superforecasting Workshop this February and learn from the best. Whether you’re an individual or a team, this workshop is designed to provide actionable insights and strategies. Learn to mitigate biases, collaborate effectively, ask the right questions, and improve your forecasts. Sign up: https://lnkd.in/eqAuVJe4 More info: https://lnkd.in/dj-_W8C #ForecastingWorkshop #GoodJudgment #Superforecasting
-
-
“Forget the old advice to think twice. Superforecasters often think thrice—and sometimes they are just warming up to do a deeper-dive analysis.”? - Phil Tetlock and Dan Gardner in Superforecasting.? https://lnkd.in/gdGRst2U? #TetlockTuesday?#Superforecasting?#GoodJudgment
-