GeoQuant

Former president Donald Trump’s?victory on 5 November has reinforced a forecasted increase in U.S. Political Risk and driven U.S. Treasury yields higher, a structural trend we call the “EM-ification” of U.S. politics. Relatedly, the Pulse version of our Governance Risk indicator is positively correlated with daily moves in 10-year Treasury yields. While the selection of Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary may help calm fears of capricious policymaking, rising bond?yields will ultimately?provide the most?effective check on Governance Risk going forward. On FX, the prospect of higher U.S.-China bilateral Risk under Trump will likely be positive for the U.S. dollar, reinforcing its strong resilience to the EM-ification of U.S. politics. Please visit?www.geoquant.com?or schedule a demo?[email protected]?to learn more. #PoliticalRisk #Geopolitics #UnitedStates

This Friday's Week Ahead highlights rising?#PoliticalRisk?in #Namibia, #Ghana, #Poland, and #NewZealand, neutral risk in #Brazil, and declining risk in #SriLanka. Please visit?www.geoquant.com?or schedule a demo?[email protected]?to learn more.

GeoQuant is tracking different geopolitical risks ahead of a second Trump administration. On net, U.S. Geopolitical Risk is forecast to rise as Trump pursues a more volatile, but likely isolationist, foreign policy. --For #Russia,?Trump presents an opportunity to cultivate closer relations, weaken NATO, and undercut Ukraine’s ability to fight the war. However, stress-tests?of GeoQuant’s Russia-Ukraine scenario module indicate the war is unlikely to come to a quick or decisive end in 2025. --For #China, bilateral?relations will become more volatile amid a renewed trade war, increasing the risk of a Taiwan Strait crisis. --For #Iran,?a renewed “maximum pressure” campaign will increase bilateral tensions, but could restrain the likelihood of a larger regional conflict with Israel. Please visit?www.geoquant.com?or schedule a demo?[email protected]?to learn more. #PoliticalRisk #Geopolitics #UnitedStates

This Friday's Week Ahead highlights rising?#PoliticalRisk?in #Australia, #Georgia, #Ghana, the #Netherlands, and the #UnitedStates, and declining risk in #Argentina and #Azerbaijan. Please visit?www.geoquant.com?or schedule a demo?[email protected]?to learn more.

GeoQuant’s U.S. presidential election model correctly forecast Donald Trump’s victory on 5 November 2024 given consistent "change” signals in our data. These change signals – including structural and near-term trends in Mass Support and Socio-Economic Risks?–?also led to large Republican gains in Congress, overriding our expectation of divided government. Trump’s unified government will likely extend tax cuts, enact massive tariffs, and keep long-term UST yields high. To understand further market implications of the election outcomes, we simulate how changes in U.S. Political Risk will affect UST and gold markets, finding gold spot prices could ultimately move above $3000 under a Trump administration. Although higher yields generally reduce the price of gold, higher U.S. Political Risk will put upward pressure on both, weakening their structurally negative relationship. Please visit?www.geoquant.com?or schedule a demo?[email protected]?to learn more. #PoliticalRisk #Geopolitics #UnitedStates

This Friday's Week Ahead highlights rising?#PoliticalRisk?in #Mozambique and #Ukraine, neutral risk in #Indonesia, and declining risk in #Nigeria, #Pakistan, the #UnitedStates, and #Botswana. Please visit?www.geoquant.com?or schedule a demo?[email protected]?to learn more.

Sharp rises in GeoQuant’s Social Polarization and Government Risk Pulse scores prior to Japan's lower house election correctly foreshadowed the LDP-led coalition's loss of its majority on October 27. A new, albeit weaker, LDP government is likely to form as a result, led by new LDP leader and PM Shigeru Ishiba. Whether government formation efforts lead to an expanded coalition or minority government will become clear by the end of November. Of note, an LDP fissure could increase government formation options, and therefore uncertainty, whereas an expanded LDP coalition would likely increase spending and therefore support additional BoJ policy rate hikes. Government Risk, which correlates with 10-year sovereign yields at +0.70 since the 2021 election, is forecast to continue rising, suggesting that politics will continue to place upward pressure on yields. Please visit?www.geoquant.com?or schedule a demo?[email protected]?to learn more. #PoliticalRisk #Geopolitics #Japan

GeoQuant’s presidential election model forecasts a 53% probability of government change, a “toss up” that leans toward Republican candidate Donald Trump, but with momentum favoring Harris. Our House election model forecasts a 56% probability of change, suggesting a Democratic takeover of the currently GOP-controlled lower chamber. With the Senate likely shifting to Republican control, divided government would continue to constrain legislative activity. Elevated levels of Political Violence Risk indicate that election results will be contested, however a new scenario analysis shows a low tail risk of an anti-government insurrection attempt.?A contested outcome will reinforce the very close link between U.S. Political Risk and gold price even if the U.S. dollar continues to rally.? #PoliticalRisk #Election #Gold #UnitedStates

Join us for an insightful session where we leverage GeoQuant's proprietary high-frequency dataset to analyze the upcoming U.S. elections in-depth! Our expert analysts will guide you through GeoQuant’s two election models, covering both the presidential and legislative races. Gain insights into key narratives, discover crucial signposts to watch, and understand the market and political implications of this election cycle. Register here: https://ow.ly/aYpp50TVGUM #ConnectedThinking #DataScience #Elections

GeoQuant's updated Corruption Risk focus indicator provides daily, forward-looking scores for all 146 countries in our system measuring the political drivers of corruption. Our Corruption Risk indicator is negatively correlated with economic growth (r = -0.75 between Corruption Risk and log GDP per capita); higher corruption, lower growth. This is consistent with existing research, including the research recently acknowledged through the Nobel Prize, showing the negative relationship between corruption and economic growth.?While Corruption Risk may show idiosyncratic relationships with asset prices, it serves primarily as an early warning of future political/policy shocks to markets. Please visit?www.geoquant.com?or schedule a demo?[email protected]?to learn more. #PoliticalRisk #Geopolitics #Corruption #GDP