Fulcrum Wealth Management

January showcased impressive?returns despite increased volatility, serving as a reminder that trying to time the market is rarely a prudent decision. ? AI Market Influence: DeepSeek, an international AI chatbot making ambitious assertions, unsettled equity markets. ??Concerns arose over American?AI-leadership, highlighted by NVIDIA's significant drop of $600 billion in market value in just one day. ??Although the market impressed with a rapid rebound, it could indicate extended volatility going forward. ? Tariff Tensions: Potential?tariffs—which most analysts generally consider harmful—were not well received by investors. ??Canada and Mexico put those concerns to rest?by committing to improved border security measures. ??An extensive?North America trade war seems?improbable, considering the harm it could inflict across the continent. ? Policy Discrepancies: Central banks continue to diverge in their approach to winding down interest rates. ??The U.S. Federal Reserve is exercising caution due to the ongoing persistence of inflation—a byproduct of economic strength. ??If punitive tariffs are enacted, it may lead to increased inflation and unemployment, potentially complicating the Fed's?dual mandate. We do not see the need to adjust our base case: volatility is?to be?????????????????, not???????????????, and preparation remains a critical ally. For further insights, explore our January Market Minutes to understand how various asset classes could be influenced by evolving macroeconomic conditions.

Against the backdrop of an otherwise stellar year of returns, the S&P 500 delivered its worst monthly performance in December of 2024, and bond markets weren't exactly in favor either. ? Although the Republican run-up initially supported market gains, investors now seem to be weighing the full scope of Trump 2.0 and the variables at play. If?taxes & deregulation?are his administration's priorities, businesses and shareholders across the country stand to benefit. In contrast, rolling out?tariffs & deportations?without a calculated plan may make inflation more stubborn. ? The Federal Reserve ("Fed") has obviously taken interest as well for the same reason. In a recent meeting, the sudden shift in tone from the central bank led to market hesitancy. Investors, who previously predicted up to four interest rate reductions in 2025, have now lowered their expectations to a maximum of two. Longer-term yields rose in reaction, and stock markets weren't very receptive. ? Private credit continues to stand out as an asset class, and companies hoping to live up to the lofty expectations from 2024 will likely need access to do so. With traditional financers still operating under strict lending standards, private markets should be able to capitalize on businesses looking to impress shareholders in the new year. This past year was nothing short of eventful, but in our industry, that's usually the case. A portfolio manager's capability shouldn't necessarily be measured in sheer returns but rather in their ability to filter out noise, look at the bigger picture, and adhere to long-term investment horizons. Doing so can manage risk more efficiently, protect capital, and manage wealth with the client's best interests in mind.

November proved to be a remarkable month for equity investors, showcasing the S&P 500's strongest monthly returns in what has already been an impressive year. ? While the incoming President may evoke mixed feelings, it is evident that the markets are concentrating on the possible advantages of Republican dominance in both the executive and legislative branches. In principle, fiscal support?and lax?regulations are expected to bolster the economy overall, potentially leading to increased corporate earnings. That being said, a balanced perspective is frequently more beneficial than an overly positive one—tariffs and widespread deportations could prompt?reinflation. Careful observation of these different elements might help in predicting interest rate trends. ? Considering the inflationary risks—such as tariffs and a decrease in migrant labor—economic growth could face constraints. As a result, discerning investors may increasingly favor companies that demonstrate dependable performance, robust financial health, and consistent dividend growth. Wider market advancements typically enhance the landscape. ? Private infrastructure has emerged as a key beneficiary of societal digitization and the increasing energy demands driven by AI. The substantial output of nuclear energy has eclipsed the associated risks, as various governments, corporations, and industries seek alternatives to oil, coal, and renewable sources. Change is abundant—whether it’s in leadership, the passage of time, or advancements in technology, to name a few—and it presents both opportunities and challenges. On one side, it may introduce unpredictability. Conversely, it has the potential to create new avenues for growth. The determining factor is often your level of preparedness to seize emerging opportunities.

We asked ourselves a simple question: if advisors are empowering their clients, shouldn’t someone be doing the same for them? ?????????????? Ful-crum /?fulkr?m/ 1) Providing support for action 2) Giving one the power of many Through our partnership with Bellwether USA as well as our own progress as a company, our services and platform have grown to encompass everything you could ask for in the realm of wealth management. Every critical solution, seamlessly integrated and fully customizable, is just one click away. Welcome to Fulcrum Wealth Management, the turning point for you and your clients. fulcrumwm.com