Friedrich Ebert Stiftung - Washington DC

??? Swing State Georgia: Key Trends and Voter Insights As the 2024 U.S. election approaches, #Georgia remains a pivotal battleground. Here are some takeaways from our recent trip: ?? Voter Trends: Harris faces challenges with non-white voters in Georgia, 20% of whom currently lean towards Trump. Analysts highlight that Democrats need overwhelming black support to win. ?? #Education as an indicator: Education has become the top indicator of voting behavior, surpassing race. College-educated voters trend Democratic, while voters with a high school degree or less predominantly favor the Republican Party. ?? Turnout Uncertainty: Conventional wisdom sees high #turnout benefiting Democrats, but this year may favor Republicans, particularly in Georgia’s suburbs. ?? State Dynamics: Georgia’s economy is thriving with federal investments, making #inflation and the #economy the top issues for many voters, particularly swing voters. #Abortion is also a highly relevant issue among women, who largely support Harris. #Georgia #USelection2024

??A #Trump Victory would be “chaotic, unstable and dangerous” ??We recently interviewed Celinda Lake, one of the Democrats’ leading polling strategists, who warns of Trump’s main advantage in mobilizing undecided voters lying in his perceived embodiment of “change”. The #Harris campaign must underscore that “not all change is good, especially not Trump”. ???While #Immigration and #abortion are the mobilizing issues across all swing states, Harris’ ability to convince blue-collar voters of her economic policies will be decisive. ???Follow the link below to find out what critical role #gender plays in determining Harris’ ability to mobilize last-minute votes in our full-length interview with Celinda Lake! https://lnkd.in/eTZiHDgt

?? Reflecting on the Transatlantic Dialogue on Migration Policy ???????? Recently, we had a closer look at the future of #migration policy in Pennsylvania and Washington, DC, with esteemed Members of the Bundestag Dirk Wiese MdB, Dr. Johannes Fechner, Sonja Eichwede, and Sebastian Hartmann. Here are some key takeaways from our discussions: ?? Electoral Focus in Pennsylvania: For Democrats to win Pennsylvania, they must significantly boost voter turnout in Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, and the surrounding suburbs. ?? Campaign Spending: A staggering $3 billion is fueling the 2024 campaigns. Main issues for voters are the #economy, #abortion, and #inflation. ?? Voter Mobilization: It's all about energizing the electorate this year. Campaigns are focusing more on turnout than persuasion. ?? Shared Challenges: Both Germany and the USA need immigration for economic stability and growth amidst population declines, yet face intensified negative rhetoric, especially from right-wing factions. ?? Policy Efforts: The Biden administration aims for better #border security, expanded legal immigration paths, and emphasizing hemispheric cooperation. Let's continue to push for transatlantic cooperation to tackle global migration challenges. ?? #TransatlanticDialogue #Election2024 #PolicyExchange

Last week I had the pleasure of accompanying a delegation from the German Confederation of Trade Unions (DGB - Deutscher Gewerkschaftsbund) in DC and Michigan. The group from a mix of industrial, public and service unions met with their sister unions in the US to discuss organizing and labor law, social partnership and constructive labor relations, and transatlantic trade relationships. Special thanks to: Laura Gutierrez and Riley Ohlson of AFL-CIO, Nicholas Allen and his Team at SEIU, President Tim Driscoll and Brian Kennedy at International Union of Bricklayers and Allied Craftworkers, Paul Trujillo and Sunshine McBride at the International Brotherhood of Teamsters, Susan Valentine and Joshua Armstead of UNITE HERE!, Jason Walsh from Blue Green Alliance, Stephen Silvia from American University, John Hoyt and Tim Richardson at National Fraternal Order of Police, President Edward Kelly, Evan Davis, Neil Pettit and David Hoagland of International Association of Fire Fighters (IAFF), Knut Panknin at Friedrich Ebert Stiftung - Washington DC, Lane Windham from the Kalmanovitz Initiative for Labor and the Working Poor, Nettie Stuckey and her colleagues from International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers (IBEW), Ben Davis and Roy Houseman at the United Steelworkers (USW), Kristyne Peter and Eric Heggie from the International Union, UAW and Matt Royer and Sam Jane from the Young Democrats of America. I also want to thank Carl Roberts from Heinrich-B?ll-Stiftung Washington, DC for the great cooperation on developing this program. cc: Embassy of Germany in Washington, D.C.

Thank you very much for welcoming us and the insightful discussion! ??

?? Upcoming Webinar Alert: The Regional Lens: Understanding #Germany's Political Future After the Saxony, Thuringia, and Brandenburg Elections ??? ?? Date: Next Tuesday, September 24, 2024?? ?? Time: 11:00 AM - 12:00 PM EST / 17:00 CET - 18:00 CET?? ?? Location:Online Join us for a crucial discussion as we analyze the recent and upcoming state #elections in Saxony, Thuringia, and Brandenburg. Our panel, featuring historian Prof. Christina Morina, Dr. Swen Steinberg, PhD from the German Historical Institute Washington DC, Nadine Lindner from the Deutschlandradio and MEP Matthias Ecke will dive into what these elections signify for Germany's political landscape as we approach the federal elections in 2025. We'll discuss the regional political trends, the historical context behind these shifts, and the broader implications for German #democracy. Don't miss this event organized by Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung USA & Canada. Register now to secure your spot! https://lnkd.in/eJFiWAs3

?? Upcoming Webinar Alert: The Regional Lens: Understanding #Germany's Political Future After the Saxony, Thuringia, and Brandenburg Elections ??? ?? Date: September 24, 2024 ?? Time: 11:00 AM - 12:00 PM EST / 15:00 CET - 16:00 CET ?? Location: Online Join us for a crucial discussion as we analyze the recent and upcoming state #elections in Saxony, Thuringia, and Brandenburg. Our panel, featuring historian Prof. Christina Morina, Dr. Swen Steinberg, PhD from the German Historical Institute Washington DC and MEP Matthias Ecke will dive into what these elections signify for Germany's political landscape as we approach the federal elections in 2025. We'll discuss the regional political trends, the historical context behind these shifts, and the broader implications for German #democracy. Don't miss this event organized by Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung USA & Canada. Register now to secure your spot! https://lnkd.in/eJFiWAs3

Last week, we had the great pleasure and honor of hosting the Parliamentary State Secretary to the Federal Minister of Defense, Siemtje M?ller MdB, at Ebert Haus. ???As the election season gets into full swing, the Parliamentary State Secretary discussed the US election with three experts who provided perspectives from polling, journalism and politics. ??The focus of the roundtable was the US on the eve of the elections, and covered whether the DNC helped Kamala #Harris define herself as a candidate, the impact of the party convention on polling, and the impact of vice presidential candidate Tim #Walz on the ticket. The participants also discussed how Trump and the Republicans are trying to define their message against Harris and how the #abortion issue continues to mobilize voters, among other topics. ??Despite the continued enthusiasm for the Harris-Walz ticket, experts expect the election to be very close and victory is not certain.

???? We are on the ground in Chicago as the Democratic National Convention unfolds! ?? We had the opportunity to speak with Ambassador and former Senator Joe Donnelly from Indiana about the #DNC and what the #Harris-Walz ticket means for Indiana voters this November. Indiana is firmly in the grip of the Republican Party. Ambassador Donnelly is the last Democrat to hold statewide office in Indiana, back in 2018.

??Yesterday, Federal Minister of Labor and Social Affairs of Germany Hubertus Heil (SPD) was traveling with the FES Washington Office when the news about President Joe Biden's decision to not seek re-election broke. ????The program with Labor Minister Heil analyzed, among other issues, the industrial and trade policy of the USA, including the impact the outcome of the election will have on the country's #labor market and #democracy. The discussions also covered the impact of new technological developments and artificial intelligence on the world of work, and what constitutes good social policy - then and now. ?????? After news of Biden's decision broke, the latest developments in the election campaign naturally became the forefront of the discussions. Kamala Harris has raised around 95 million dollars in donations within the last 24 hours and received support from numerous prominent Democrats. The Democratic Party must now unite behind Kamala Harris.