Freedom Capital Group LLC

?? Impact of New U.S. Tariffs on Fiscal and Monetary Policy, and Fixed Income Markets The recent implementation of U.S. tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China has significant implications for fiscal and monetary policy, as well as the fixed income market. Policy Implications: - Fiscal Policy Impact: Tariffs may boost government revenue but also drive up consumer prices, acting as a regressive tax. Additionally, slower economic growth could reduce overall tax collections, offsetting potential gains. - Monetary Policy Impact: Higher import costs are likely to add inflationary pressure, making it more challenging for the Federal Reserve to balance rate cuts with inflation control and economic stability. Impact on Fixed Income Markets: - Yield Volatility: The bond market has experienced increased volatility, with yields fluctuating in response to tariff announcements and concerns over economic growth. - Inflation Expectations: Rising import costs due to tariffs may elevate inflation expectations, leading to higher yields, particularly on longer-duration bonds. - Central Bank Responses: Global central banks are closely monitoring the situation, with some adopting more accommodative policies to counteract potential economic slowdowns resulting from trade tensions. Investors should remain vigilant, as the evolving trade policies continue to influence fiscal dynamics, monetary policy decisions, and fixed income markets. #Tariffs #FiscalPolicy #MonetaryPolicy #FixedIncome #Inflation #FederalReserve #BondMarket #Investing #Economy #TradeWar #GlobalEconomy #MarketInsights #FreedomCapitalGroup #Freedom Sources: Bloomberg, Investopedia, Reuters, U.S. Census Bureau, Yahoo! Finance The return and principal value of bonds fluctuate with changes in market conditions. If bonds are not held to maturity, they may be worth more or less than their original value. The views stated in this letter are not necessarily the opinion of Cetera Advisor Networks LLC and should not be construed directly or indirectly as an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned herein. Due to volatility within the markets mentioned, opinions are subject to change without notice. Information is based on sources believed to be reliable; however, their accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

?? February 2025 CPI Report: Inflation Eases More Than Expected This morning, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for February 2025, revealing a moderation in inflation rates. Key Highlights: - Overall CPI: In February, the CPI increased by 0.2% month-over-month, a slowdown from January's 0.5% rise. Annually, the CPI rose by 2.8%, down from 3.0% in January, indicating a cooling in inflation. - Core CPI: Excluding volatile food and energy prices, the core CPI grew by 0.2% in February. Over the past 12 months, it registered a 3.1% increase, down from January's 3.3%, marking the smallest annual gain since April 2021. Contributing Factors: - Airline Fares: Declined by 4.0%, indicating potential softening in travel demand. - Gasoline Prices: Fell by 1.0%, contributing to the overall energy index's modest 0.2% increase. Market Reactions: - Equities: The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indices gained 0.8% and 1.4%, respectively, as investors reacted positively to the cooling inflation data. - Treasury Yields: Despite the softer inflation figures, U.S. Treasury yields edged higher, reflecting ongoing market assessments of economic conditions. The Federal Reserve is expected to consider this data in its upcoming policy meeting, balancing the recent easing in inflation against potential impacts from new trade tariffs. #Inflation #CPI #FederalReserve #Markets #Economy #Investing #Stocks #Bonds #Tariffs #TradePolicy #GlobalEconomy #MarketInsights #FreedomCapitalGroup #Freedom Sources: Financial Times, Reuters, The New York Post, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) The return and principal value of bonds fluctuate with changes in market conditions. If bonds are not held to maturity, they may be worth more or less than their original value. The views stated in this letter are not necessarily the opinion of Cetera Advisor Networks LLC and should not be construed directly or indirectly as an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned herein. Due to volatility within the markets mentioned, opinions are subject to change without notice. Information is based on sources believed to be reliable; however, their accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investors cannot invest directly in indexes. The performance of any index is not indicative of the performance of any investment and does not take into account the effects of inflation and the fees and expenses associated with investing.

?? Germany Unveils Historic €500 Billion Stimulus Plan On March 6, 2025, Germany announced a transformative economic stimulus package aimed at revitalizing its economy and strengthening defense capabilities. Key Components of the Plan: - Infrastructure Investment: A €500 billion fund over the next decade dedicated to upgrading transportation, energy, and digital infrastructures. This initiative seeks to address years of underinvestment and stimulate economic growth. - Defense Spending: Removal of borrowing caps for defense expenditures, allowing for rapid military enhancements. This shift responds to evolving geopolitical dynamics and aims to bolster national security. Market Reactions: - Bond Yields: The announcement led to a significant sell-off in European government bonds. Germany's 10-year bond yield surged to 2.93%, marking the largest two-day increase since 1997. - Equity Markets: European stock markets reacted positively, with German and French indices reaching record highs, reflecting investor optimism about the anticipated economic boost. Implications: - Fiscal Policy Shift: This plan signifies a departure from Germany's longstanding fiscal conservatism, indicating a readiness to embrace expansive borrowing to stimulate growth. - Economic Outlook: Economists anticipate that the stimulus could elevate Germany's debt-to-GDP ratio to 84%, while potentially revitalizing economic growth hindered by previous underinvestment. This historic initiative underscores Germany's commitment to addressing contemporary challenges and strengthening its economic and defense posture. #Germany #Stimulus #EconomicGrowth #Markets #Investing #Bonds #Inflation #FederalReserve #GlobalEconomy #MarketInsights #FreedomCapitalGroup #Freedom #Investing Sources: CNBC, Financial Times, The Economist, Yahoo! Finance The return and principal value of bonds fluctuate with changes in market conditions. If bonds are not held to maturity, they may be worth more or less than their original value. The views stated in this letter are not necessarily the opinion of Cetera Advisor Networks LLC and should not be construed directly or indirectly as an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned herein. Due to volatility within the markets mentioned, opinions are subject to change without notice. Information is based on sources believed to be reliable; however, their accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

?? January 2025 PCE Report: Inflation Shows Signs of Cooling On February 28, 2025, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released the latest Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data, offering insights into the nation's inflation trends. Key Highlights: - Overall PCE Price Index: In January, the PCE Price Index increased by 0.3% month-over-month. Annually, it rose by 2.5%, a slight decrease from December's 2.6%, indicating a modest cooling in inflation. - Core PCE Price Index: Excluding volatile food and energy prices, the core PCE Price Index also grew by 0.3% in January. Over the past 12 months, it registered a 2.6% increase, down from December's 2.9%, marking the lowest annual rate since June 2024. Implications: - Federal Reserve's Stance: The Federal Reserve closely monitors the core PCE Price Index as its preferred inflation gauge, aiming for a 2% target. The recent data suggests that while inflation remains above this target, the downward trend may influence future monetary policy decisions. - Consumer Purchasing Power: The slight easing in inflation offers consumers a reprieve, potentially enhancing purchasing power and boosting confidence in the economy. Staying informed about these economic indicators is crucial for making strategic financial decisions in today's dynamic environment. #PCE #InflationReport #MarketInsights #FreedomCapitalGroup #Freedom #Investing Sources: CNBC, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, WSJ, Yahoo! Finance The return and principal value of bonds fluctuate with changes in market conditions. If bonds are not held to maturity, they may be worth more or less than their original value. The views stated in this letter are not necessarily the opinion of Cetera Advisor Networks LLC and should not be construed directly or indirectly as an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned herein. Due to volatility within the markets mentioned, opinions are subject to change without notice. Information is based on sources believed to be reliable; however, their accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

?? Key Economic Indicators Released on February 27, 2025 Several critical economic reports were released on the morning of February 27, 2025, shedding light on the current state of the U.S. economy. Gross Domestic Product (GDP): The U.S. economy expanded at an annualized rate of 2.3% in the fourth quarter of 2024, consistent with initial estimates. This marks a slowdown from the 3.1% growth observed in the third quarter. The deceleration is attributed to declines in business investments and inventories, despite robust consumer spending. Unemployment Claims: Initial jobless claims rose by 22,000 to a seasonally adjusted 242,000 for the week ending February 22, 2025, the largest increase in five months. This uptick suggests potential softening in the labor market, possibly influenced by recent federal workforce reductions. Market Implications: In response to the GDP data and rising jobless claims, U.S. Treasury yields experienced upward pressure. The 10-year Treasury yield increased from a 10-week low, reflecting investor reassessment of economic conditions. Staying informed on these indicators is essential for making strategic financial decisions in a dynamic environment. #GDP #Unemployment #TreasuryMarket #BondMarket #Economics #MarketInsights #FreedomCapitalGroup #Freedom #Investing #PortfolioManagement Sources: Bloomberg, CNBC, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, WSJ, Yahoo! Finance The return and principal value of bonds fluctuate with changes in market conditions. If bonds are not held to maturity, they may be worth more or less than their original value. The views stated in this letter are not necessarily the opinion of Cetera Advisor Networks LLC and should not be construed directly or indirectly as an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned herein. Due to volatility within the markets mentioned, opinions are subject to change without notice. Information is based on sources believed to be reliable; however, their accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

?? Recent Movements in the 10-Year Treasury Yield As of February 25, 2025, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has experienced notable fluctuations, reflecting evolving economic conditions and investor sentiment. Current Yield Levels: - The 10-year Treasury yield stands at approximately 4.30%, marking a decrease from previous highs earlier this year. Historical Context: - In January 2025, the yield reached a peak of 4.79% on January 13, influenced by robust economic indicators and inflation concerns. - Since then, a downward trend has emerged, with the yield declining by approximately 49 basis points to its current level. Factors Influencing Yield Movements: - Economic Growth Concerns: Recent data indicates a slowdown in business activity and a significant drop in consumer confidence, leading investors to seek the safety of government bonds, thereby driving yields lower. - Inflation Dynamics: Despite the economic slowdown, inflation remains a concern, with the Consumer Price Index rising to 3.0% in January. This persistent inflation influences Federal Reserve policy considerations and impacts yield trajectories. - Federal Reserve Policy Outlook: Market participants are adjusting their expectations, with some anticipating potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in response to the cooling economy, which affects bond yields. Market Sentiment: The bond market's movements reflect a complex interplay between growth concerns and inflationary pressures, underscoring the importance of diversified investment strategies. Staying informed on these developments is crucial for making strategic financial decisions in a dynamic economic landscape. #US10Y #TreasuryMarket #BondMarket #Economics #MarketInsights #FreedomCapitalGroup #Freedom #Investing #PortfolioManagement Sources: Bloomberg, CNBC, WSJ, Yahoo! Finance, YCharts The return and principal value of bonds fluctuate with changes in market conditions. If bonds are not held to maturity, they may be worth more or less than their original value. The views stated in this letter are not necessarily the opinion of Cetera Advisor Networks LLC and should not be construed directly or indirectly as an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned herein. Due to volatility within the markets mentioned, opinions are subject to change without notice. Information is based on sources believed to be reliable; however, their accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

?? January 2025 CPI Report Recap The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, released on February 12, 2025, indicates that inflation rose unexpectedly in January. The CPI increased by 0.5% for the month, leading to a year-over-year rate of 3.0%, up from 2.9% in December. Economists had anticipated a 0.3% monthly increase and a 2.9% annual rate. Key Contributors to the Inflation Uptick: - Shelter Costs: The shelter index rose by 0.4% in January, accounting for nearly 30% of the overall CPI increase. - Food Prices: Food prices increased by 0.4%, with grocery store prices surging 0.5%. Notably, egg prices soared by 15.2%, the largest increase since June 2015, primarily due to an avian flu outbreak causing shortages. - Energy Costs: Gasoline and natural gas prices both rose by 1.8%, contributing to the overall inflationary pressures. The higher-than-expected CPI print has significant implications for Treasury yields and the fixed income market, as investors adjust their expectations for future Federal Reserve policy. Treasury Market Reaction - Following the higher-than-expected CPI report, U.S. Treasury yields spiked, reflecting shifting market sentiment. - The 10-year Treasury yield climbed above 4.65%, up from previous levels, as investors reassess the likelihood of near-term rate cuts. - The 2-year Treasury yield, which is more sensitive to Fed policy, surged past 4.35%, pricing in the possibility that the Fed will maintain higher rates for longer. Why are Yields Rising? Higher inflation suggests the Fed may delay rate cuts or even maintain a restrictive stance longer than previously expected. This puts downward pressure on bond prices since yields and prices move inversely. #CPI #InflationReport #MarketInsights #FreedomCapitalGroup #Freedom #Investing Sources: U.S. Bureau Of Labor Statistics, Yahoo! Finance, Reuters The return and principal value of bonds fluctuate with changes in market conditions. If bonds are not held to maturity, they may be worth more or less than their original value. The views stated in this letter are not necessarily the opinion of Cetera Advisor Networks LLC and should not be construed directly or indirectly as an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned herein. Due to volatility within the markets mentioned, opinions are subject to change without notice. Information is based on sources believed to be reliable; however, their accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

?? Analyzing December's CPI Data and Its Implications for Federal Reserve Policy The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, released on January 15, 2025, offers valuable insights into inflation trends and potential monetary policy adjustments. Key Highlights: - Overall Inflation: The CPI rose by 0.4% in December, leading to a year-over-year increase of 2.9%, up from 2.7% in November. This uptick is primarily attributed to higher energy costs, notably a 4.4% surge in gasoline prices. - Core Inflation: Excluding volatile food and energy prices, core CPI increased by 0.2% month-over-month, resulting in a 3.2% annual rise, slightly below the previous month's 3.3%. This suggests a modest easing in underlying inflation pressures. Implications for the Federal Reserve: - Monetary Policy Outlook: The persistent inflationary pressures, especially in energy sectors, may influence the Federal Reserve to maintain its current interest rate stance. While core inflation shows signs of moderation, the overall rise could lead the Fed to delay anticipated rate cuts to ensure inflation trends toward the 2% target. - Market Reactions: Following the CPI release, financial markets have shown optimism. U.S. stock indices rallied, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite experiencing significant gains. Treasury yields dipped, reflecting investor sentiment that the Fed might adopt a more cautious approach to rate adjustments. Strategic Considerations for Investors: At Freedom Capital Group, we are committed to providing tailored fixed income solutions that address the unique challenges faced by institutions in today's dynamic market environment. If you’d like to learn more about how Freedom Capital Group can support your investment goals, let’s connect. #CPI #InflationReport #MarketInsights #FreedomCapitalGroup #Freedom #Investing Sources: U.S. Bureau Of Labor Statistics, CNBC, Wall Street Journal, Investopedia The return and principal value of bonds fluctuate with changes in market conditions. If bonds are not held to maturity, they may be worth more or less than their original value. The views stated in this letter are not necessarily the opinion of Cetera Advisor Networks LLC and should not be construed directly or indirectly as an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned herein. Due to volatility within the markets mentioned, opinions are subject to change without notice. Information is based on sources believed to be reliable; however, their accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

?? Analyzing the Latest Employment Data and Its Implications for Federal Reserve Policy: The December employment report, released on January 10, 2025, indicates a robust labor market with significant implications for Federal Reserve policy decisions. Key Highlights: - Job Growth: The U.S. economy added 256,000 jobs in December, surpassing economists' expectations of 160,000 and marking the highest gain since March. - Unemployment Rate: Decreased to 4.1% from 4.2% in November, indicating a tightening labor market. - Wage Growth: Average hourly earnings rose by 0.3% month-over-month, resulting in a 3.9% increase year-over-year, reflecting steady income growth for workers. Implications for the Federal Reserve: - The stronger-than-expected employment figures suggest that the Federal Reserve may adopt a more cautious approach regarding future interest rate cuts. - Monetary Policy Outlook: Despite recent rate reductions, the robust job market may lead the Fed to delay further cuts to avoid overheating the economy and to maintain progress toward its 2% inflation target. - Market Expectations: Financial markets have adjusted to the possibility of a prolonged pause in rate adjustments, with Treasury yields rising and stock markets reacting to the strong employment data. What are your thoughts on this development? How do you plan to adjust your financial strategies in light of the Fed’s decision? If you’d like to learn more about how Freedom Capital Group can support your investment goals, let’s connect. #FederalReserve #RateCut #MarketInsights #FreedomCapitalGroup #Investing Sources: U.S. Bureau Of Labor Statistics, Wall Street Journal, Reuters The return and principal value of bonds fluctuate with changes in market conditions. If bonds are not held to maturity, they may be worth more or less than their original value. The views stated in this letter are not necessarily the opinion of Cetera Advisor Networks LLC and should not be construed directly or indirectly as an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned herein. Due to volatility within the markets mentioned, opinions are subject to change without notice. Information is based on sources believed to be reliable; however, their accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Breaking News: The Federal Reserve Cuts Rates The Federal Reserve has announced a rate cut, accompanied by forward guidance suggesting the potential for further easing in the months ahead. This move reflects a balancing act between addressing inflation and supporting economic growth, and it has significant implications across the financial landscape. What Does This Mean? For Borrowers: Lower rates could make financing more affordable, benefiting businesses and individuals alike. For Investors: With a potential "risk-on" sentiment in the market, equities and real estate might see increased activity, though caution is still warranted amid potential volatility. For the Economy: The Fed's guidance underscores its commitment to fostering stability while navigating a complex economic environment. At Freedom Capital Group, we’re analyzing how this shift could impact investment opportunities, particularly in real estate and alternative assets. Our mission is to help clients make informed decisions and seize opportunities in changing market conditions. Looking Ahead This rate cut marks a critical moment for strategic planning. Whether you’re evaluating your portfolio or exploring financing options, now is the time to align your strategy with these economic shifts. What are your thoughts on this development? How do you plan to adjust your financial strategies in light of the Fed’s decision? If you’d like to learn more about how Freedom Capital Group can support your investment goals, let’s connect. #FederalReserve #RateCut #MarketInsights #FreedomCapitalGroup #Investing The return and principal value of bonds fluctuate with changes in market conditions. If bonds are not held to maturity, they may be worth more or less than their original value. The views stated in this letter are not necessarily the opinion of Cetera Advisor Networks LLC and should not be construed directly or indirectly as an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned herein. Due to volatility within the markets mentioned, opinions are subject to change without notice. Information is based on sources believed to be reliable; however, their accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Past performance does not guarantee future results.