Great analogy by Stefanos Moschopoulos on bias and "silent evidence". So why do we search for healthcare providers using only 3 criteria (Location, reviews, availability)? https://lnkd.in/g3E5PGvW
Co-Founder of The Luxury Playbook & Marketing Training Club | Helping Entrepreneurs Launch & Grow Their Startups
A WWII statistician saved countless lives. What he figured out (and what it teaches us): When fighter planes returned with bullet holes, some areas were more commonly hit by enemy fire. To reduce the number of planes shot down, the Allies wanted to add armor — but it was too heavy to place everywhere. So they decided to strengthen the most commonly damaged parts. Abraham Wald thought they were making a mistake. They might be reading the data wrong: What if the reason certain areas never had holes was because planes shot in those areas never returned? The Allies ended up reinforcing the parts with no holes. Sometimes, the reason we are missing certain pieces of data is more important than the data we have. Nassim Taleb calls this overlooked data "silent evidence". This is survival bias: the logical error?of concentrating on entities that passed a selection process while overlooking those that did not. Other examples of survivorship bias: - Movie stars, athletes, musicians who "beat the odds" - College dropout CEOs that "pursued their dreams" - Cats falling from buildings (look it up) - Buildings from the past - Historical data Remember to look for the unseen, too.