Fidelis Capital Partners

An incredible night with great people, all in support of an even greater cause. We were honored to attend “A Toast to Veterans” recently at the OCC Road House & Museum in Clearwater, benefiting The Honor Foundation. The foundation provides vital support to U.S. Special Operations Forces, helping translate their elite military service to the private sector and creating the next generation of corporate and community leaders. It is a privilege to support this exceptional work within our community. Thank you, Kathy Watson and Kelly McGraw, CFRE, for a meaningful and memorable event!

As the former Head of Fixed Income Portfolio Management for Bank of America's Chief Investment Office, our Head of Fixed Income Christopher Gunster, CFA, is one of the best experts to ask, "How can investors navigate fixed income today?" In this video, Chris explains why it boils down to security selection, yield cushion and flexibility. Listen to the full AdvisorShares #AlphaNooner episode on YouTube for his current state of the union on fixed income: https://lnkd.in/gm9gw_iq

Head of Fixed Income Christopher Gunster, CFA, will be on AdvisorShares #AlphaNooner this Thursday, February 6 at 12pm EST discussing the Fed, tariffs, taxes, inflation and how investors should navigate the fixed income market today. Be sure to tune in live on YouTube to participate in the closing Q&A, where Chris will address viewer questions: https://lnkd.in/gm9gw_iq

Let’s just say, if your local meteorologist was as accurate at forecasting as the dot plot, you would be extremely unhappy.?Check out the chart below that we compiled. The most significant error differences (yellow) between the actual effective fed funds rate (green) and one year out forecast (black) are depicted. The dot plot’s ability to forecast the fed funds rate one year in advance is roughly 50% over the last 10 years. Check out my latest piece on Forbes.com “Three Reasons Why The Fed Should Get Rid Of The Dot Plot” for more: https://lnkd.in/e6iGWiGX In addition to this poor forecasting record, I examine how the dot plot’s dispersion among FOMC members is not reflective of actual votes and why it can contradict the FOMC’s intended message. If you ask me, it’s time to put the dot plot to rest.?

Our Q1 Market Outlook Webinar is now available. Tune in as members of the Investment Committee recap 2024 and Q4, examine key themes affecting market outlook—including equity valuations, potential volatility, Trump initiatives and their impacts—and discuss Fidelis Capital’s portfolio positioning as we kick off Trump’s second term. Timestamps by topic accompany the webinar here: https://lnkd.in/g9AHDjHx

Mark your calendars for Wednesday, January 22 at 4:30pm EST and tune in for our Q1 Market Outlook Webinar. Investment Committee members will recap the eventful end of 2024, examine key trends to watch and discuss Fidelis Capital’s portfolio positioning as we usher in the new Trump administration. To receive the link directly to your inbox, email us at [email protected].

We are honored to support The Honor Foundation and its upcoming Waypoint “A Toast to Veterans” fundraiser. The foundation provides vital support to U.S. Special Operations Forces, helping translate their elite military service to the private sector and creating the next generation of corporate and community leaders. It’s a privilege to stand with this cause, and we look forward to a fantastic evening of community, celebration and support. Join us in making a difference by attending or spreading the word about this impactful event.

I recently had the privilege of visiting the New Leaps Academy with Coach Pete Mulry as part of my work with the Peter J. Mulry Foundation board. We spent time reading to first graders, many of whom have special needs and benefit from extra support. It was incredibly rewarding to see their engagement and enthusiasm. It’s an honor to be able to give back in this way and help support these bright young minds in our community. There is a particular need in the foundation for more readers and mentors. To get involved, please visit the foundation website below or email at [email protected]. Peter J. Mulry Foundation: https://lnkd.in/eG4uz3hM New Leaps Academy: https://newleaps.org/

Naughty or nice? In the spirit of the holidays, I reviewed fixed income performance this year and decided who got coal (hint: not the Fed). Don’t worry, I checked my list twice… Looking at 2025, I discuss a handful of themes we are watching: ?????????- Uncertainty near records highs (as discussed in my latest Forbes.com article) ?????????- Inflation, the dollar, security selection and budget with the new administration ?????????-?What’s next for the Fed ?????????-?Tight spreads hanging around The key for 2025 is FLEXIBILITY. If you have the flexibility to react and react quickly to take advantage, then you'll do well. Clients in our Tax Aware Fixed Income (TAFI) strategy have this flexibility built in and will continue to capitalize on market changes. Take a watch for my breakdown. Happy holidays to all!

This time of year reinforces the value of gifts that truly endure—time together, cherished traditions, shared experiences and meaningful legacies. We’re honored to support clients in building a lasting impact for their families and future generations. With the holidays just around the corner, we hope this season brings moments of connection, joy and reflection with your loved ones. Wishing everyone a joyful holiday season and a prosperous new year.