Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

AI could reshape and change the work of the future, next?week, we’ll take a deeper look at some of the potential?impacts this emerging technology could have on the labor?force.?Tune in next week for the livestream.

A recent Economic Letter by Regis Barnichon and Adam Shapiro found that recent inflation dynamics can be at least partially explained by patterns of excess demand in the economy. Watch Adam Shapiro break down the ways he and Regis Barnichon study labor market tightness as a strong measure of excess demand for forecasting inflation, specifically focusing on the amount of job vacancies per unemployed individual, or V–U ratio, and the vacancy-to-effective searchers ratio, or V–S ratio. The V–U and V–S ratios peaked in the first half of 2022, around the same time inflation peaked, then declined over the next two years as inflation came down. To learn more about our measurements of excess demand and its impacts on inflation, read the Economic Letter here: https://lnkd.in/gpmxuXdx

RSVP for a livestreamed conversation about emerging?technology and the economy, with Pres. Mary C. Daly?and John H. Cochrane, Senior Fellow at Hoover Institution, Stanford University. Details below ??

U.S. labor productivity initially surged in 2020 during the pandemic but then reverted to its slow pre-pandemic trend. Our Letter shows this boom-and-bust is consistent with the counter-cyclical behavior of productivity growth before the pandemic. https://sffed.us/3OLaPVH

Learn more about AI and the work of the future in our upcoming live seminar with Professor David Autor, the Daniel (1972) and Gail Rubinfeld Professor in the MIT Department of Economics.?https://lnkd.in/gru7Ducj

How much has excess demand contributed to recent inflation? Our Letter compares three measures of labor market tightness to assess which one best explains inflation dynamics. https://sffed.us/3OdJsTB

FOMC participants' inflation forecasts were consistently lowered before the pandemic, when inflation was mostly below 2%. Forecasts rose from 2021 onward, when inflation surged. Our Letter looks at the performance of these forecasts over time. https://sffed.us/3URWvOn

Our latest report from our Community Development researchers quantifies a variety of #homeownership opportunities beyond traditional single-family homes. From condos, housing cooperatives, shared units, and other options, this research brief looks at different housing types that facilitate flexibility for people who are in low-and moderate-income (LMI) households. The research shows that different housing types make up a much smaller share of the nation’s housing stock than single-family houses, which are increasingly unaffordable to LMI households. Learn more about the activity around different homeownership and #lending types: https://sffed.us/3UQgbC9

To deepen the SF Fed's understanding of technology and #GenAI, we recently spent some time in #Oregon. Read our latest Beyond the Numbers post for insights from the roundtable conversation that our EVP and Director of Economic Research Sylvain Leduc held with CEOs and senior executives representing Oregon-based tech companies. They cover: ? The next generation of needed skills ? Fundamental elements of data, computational capacity, and energy ? Why listening and learning are important Take a look at the findings in our recent blog post: https://sffed.us/3C0igFa

SEP inflation forecasts are based on each FOMC meeting participant’s view of the appropriate path of monetary policy. Our Letter looks at the positive correlation between revisions to SEP forecasts for the federal funds rate and revisions to SEP inflation forecasts. https://sffed.us/3URWvOn