Federal Reserve Bank of New York

The New York Fed Staff Nowcast for 2024:Q4 is 1.9%, with the 50% probability interval at [0.9, 3.0] and the 68% interval at [0.5, 3.4]. Explore the data: https://nyfed.org/3LbPEur

In today's post (the second in a series of three), the authors document that bank failures are remarkably predictable based on simple accounting metrics from publicly available financial statements that measure a bank’s insolvency risk and funding vulnerabilities.? The authors also find that the likelihood of future failure is significantly higher for banks with lower solvency and a greater reliance on expensive and risk-sensitive sources of funding. https://nyfed.org/3V5GtjY

President Williams recently discussed the outlook for the economy, inflation, and interest rates in an interview with Barrons. Watch: https://bit.ly/4eXeavv Read: https://bit.ly/40XGBpJ

JUST RELEASED: Reserve Demand Elasticity → The elasticity of the federal funds rate to reserve changes is very small and statistically indistinguishable from zero. The estimate suggests that reserves remain abundant. Explore the data: https://nyfed.org/3A5Adl9

Nonbank financial institutions (NBFIs) in the U.S. are collectively much larger than banks, as measured by assets, and perform a broad array of services for the U.S. economy. In today's article, the authors discuss NBFIs, how they have grown, and their importance for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, supervision, and financial stability objectives. https://nyfed.org/3AUUcn0

Do you have experience in real estate and business services sourcing and contracting? If so, consider joining us as a Non-IT Sourcing Lead. In this role, you’ll manage a portfolio that consists of real estate, cash services, and business services spend categories. Your work managing the strategic sourcing acquisition lifecycle, applying your industry expertise, and advancing client engagement efforts will be key in supporting our colleagues’ ability to carry out our mission of the U.S. economy stronger and the financial system more stable. Learn more and apply: https://bit.ly/4eF61vp

Why do banks fail? In today's post (the first in a series of three), the authors study more than 5,000 bank failures in the U.S. from 1865 to the present to understand whether failures are primarily caused by bank runs or by deteriorating solvency. The authors document that failing banks are characterized by rising asset losses, deteriorating solvency, and an increasing reliance on expensive noncore funding. They also find that problems in failing banks are often the consequence of rapid asset growth in the preceding decade. https://nyfed.org/3V0r1FK

Starting tomorrow morning, we will publish a three-part research series on our Liberty Street Economics blog investigating the leading causes of commercial banks failures in the United States throughout history. The blog posts will explore whether bank failures are primarily caused by bank runs or by deteriorating solvency. They will include data analysis on more than 37,000 commercial banks and 5,000 bank failures that have occurred between 1865 through 2023. Learn more: https://nyfed.org/3ATsze2

In the third episode of our most recent podcast series on banking culture reform, Former prosecutor for the Eastern District of New York Evan Norris discusses the FIFA corruption scandal and why his past cases carry lessons for the financial services industry. He emphasizes the importance of building cultures of strong compliance, and notes how misconduct can be harnessed as an opportunity for broad-based learning and meaningful improvement. Listen to episode 3: Culture, Compliance, and Lessons Learned from FIFA: https://nyfed.org/4eJSWSl

The labor market for recent college graduates weakened somewhat in the third quarter of 2024. The unemployment rate rose to 5.3 percent, while the underemployment rate held steady at around 40.6 percent. Explore the data: https://nyfed.org/3Zjd0Vl