farmdoc daily

OUTLOOK FOR FARMLAND VALUES IN 2025 — by Nick Paulson, Gary Schnitkey and Carl Zulauf Lower returns to rented land and higher interest rates began to signal the potential for downward pressure on farmland values in 2023. Those signals continue, with current fundamentals suggesting land value reductions of around 3% in 2025. A 3% decline would be in line with observed adjustments since the 1980s as well as expectations from professional farm managers?surveyed in 2024. On the other hand, valid arguments exist for continued strength in farmland values. In particular, strength in the average financial position of grain farms suggests declines in farmland values, if they occur, are not likely to be significant in the short term. Read more: https://lnkd.in/eFXWs-TV #farmland #interestrates #value #land #farm #grain

THE EVOLVING NATURE OF PRECISION AG: FORWARDS TOWARDS THE 2040s — by Steve Sonka In this article, a diverse set of future agricultural applications has been used as examples of enhanced decision-making methods that could be routinely employed by the 2040s. An underlying purpose for describing those examples was to illustrate capabilities that are currently emerging, such as autonomous farm vehicles of large and small size, massively expanded remote sensing networks integrating multiple means of data collection, and analytics which will employ concepts we’ve become introduced to in the last decade such as Big Data, Cloud Storage, and Traditional and Generative AI. While individually intriguing, it is the combined effect and application of these technologies that will drive performance. Farmers and managers who lead in integrating them on the farm are likely to earn the early adopter benefits. Read more: https://lnkd.in/e-kX4KE4 #agriculture #technology #autonomous #analytics #data #farm #farmers

Happy Monday and happy (almost) #Thanksgiving to all who celebrate! In today's Weekly Roundup Newsletter from farmdoc daily, we discuss why a new #FarmBill is not in the cards in the lame duck session of Congress. We also analyze corn acreage trends in South America, which show steady planted #corn acreage in #Brazil but a decline in #Argentina during the 2024/25 crop season. Here's a look at last week's work:

ILLINOIS FARM ECONOMICS SUMMITS The Illinois Farm Economics Summit returns this December to help producers and landowners navigate the latest economic conditions and policy issues impacting Illinois agriculture. Join us at one of three in-person events where the?farmdoc daily?team will analyze factors shaping farm profitability this year through presentations and Q&A on crop budgets, grain markets, risk management, farm policy, land values, and more. The?farmdoc daily?team of experts will provide information and insights to aid with management decisions during this period of financial stress. The summits are scheduled for: - Monday, Dec. 16 in Mt. Vernon, IL? - Tuesday, Dec. 17 in Peoria, IL? - Wednesday, Dec. 18 in Dekalb, IL Register here to attend: https://lnkd.in/ecjGF3R

BIOFUELS WEBINAR SERIES Due to the breadth of material to be covered, our previously announced #biofuels #webinar will now be presented as a two-part series. farmdoc daily's Scott H. Irwin will first deliver a session on Wednesday, Dec. 4, that will analyze the outlook for #ethanol and #SAF in the next several years and examine how the re-election of President Donald Trump has created layers of policy uncertainty. Then, on Dec. 11, Irwin will take a deep dive into the outlook for #renewable #diesel and FAME #biodiesel, focusing especially on how renewable diesel experienced a truly historic boom starting in 2021 but has started to plateau recently. Register here for both webinars: https://lnkd.in/edZS_k4w

REAUTHORIZATION OR RECONCILIATION: THOUGHTS ON THE FARM BILL'S PROSPECTS — by Jonathan Coppess Given the outcomes of the election, no action on Congress reauthorizing the Farm Bill will take place in the lame duck session. A majority of American voters placed their bets on Republicans in the 2024 election, with the party winning a trifecta (regaining the Presidency and a Senate majority, while retaining control of the House of Representatives). A bill with billions of dollars in food and agricultural policy for the next five years is not in the cards. Another year-long extension will kick the can down the road and punt the matter to the next (119th) Congress, where the prospects are difficult to predict. To handicap Farm Bill reauthorization, this discussion detours through a review of budget reconciliation and a few slices of history. Read more: https://lnkd.in/gde5ii9Q #FarmBill #Congress #food #agriculture #policy #budget

CORN ACREAGE IN SOUTH AMERICA: STABLE IN BRAZIL, SHARP DECLINE IN ARGENTINA — by Joana Colussi,?Nick Paulson and?Gary Schnitkey Corn production in South America’s two major agricultural countries is expected to follow two distinct paths during the 2024/25 crop season. In Brazil, planted acreage is projected to remain steady, but exports are likely to drop significantly due to intensified competition in the international market. In contrast, Argentina anticipates the largest relative decrease in corn acreage in 17 years, driven by concerns over the potential impact of corn stunt disease, which severely affected fields last season. Nonetheless, Argentine corn exports are projected to reach their highest levels since the 2020/21 season. This article examines the latest forecasts for 2024/25 corn production in Brazil and Argentina, which together account for roughly 40% of global corn exports. Read more: https://lnkd.in/ebZtDcrr #corn #soybeans #Brazil #Argentina #SouthAmerica #exports #acreage

Join the?farmdoc daily?team and University of Illinois Extension Crop Scientists in Champaign for the day-long Farm Assets Conference on Friday, Dec. 13. Speakers include farmdoc daily's Gerald Mashange, who will discuss Commercial Lenders and Agriculture, Nick Paulson, who will cover Strategies to Manage Farm Input Costs and Joana Colussi, who will explore South American Crop Prospects, among others. Register here (lunch included) to attend: https://lnkd.in/ehuM6jA4

THE ARITHMETIC OF COMMODITY TITLE PROGRAMS — by Gary Schnitkey, Jonathan Coppess, Nick Paulson, James Baltz and Carl Zulauf Farm Bill negotiations are influenced by their impacts on Federal outlays. Increasing per-acre corn payments for commodity title programs will have a much more significant effect on total Federal outlays than other crops because corn has many more base acres than other crops. Seed cotton, rice, and peanuts have lower base acres; hence, spending increases tend to have much less impact on total Federal outlays. As a result, seed cotton, rice, and peanuts often have larger per-acre increases in spending than does corn. This process is illustrated with the House Proposal for the next Farm Bill. Read more: https://lnkd.in/ejsJUMvQ #FarmBill #budget #payments #commodities #corn #cotton #rice #peanuts #acres

THE EVOLVING NATURE OF PRECISION AG: PAST AS PROLOGUE — by Steve Sonka Over the last three decades, we’ve seen considerable evolution in the extent of use and the tools employed in what we call precision agriculture. This discussion highlights some of those developments and how the technology applications that farmers considered in the 2000s were quite limited relative to those available in the 2020s. While interesting, the purpose of reviewing this experience is to suggest insights for the future. A few years ago, I was chatting with an Illinois farmer about how he used precision technologies, such as yield monitors and autosteer. After a few minutes, he looked at me and asked, “How else would you farm?” Maybe, in the 2040’s, the conversation will focus on data; how to acquire and analyze it. Will the question again be, “How else would you farm?” Next week’s article in the series will identify a set of technologies that are becoming commercially available or are in advanced stages of development. They have the potential to fail. Also, they have the potential over the next couple of decades to become mature technologies, as commonly used as yield monitors and autosteer are today. Read more: https://lnkd.in/ee98n9G2 #agriculture #precision #technology #farmers #farming #insights #data