Exawatt - now part of CRU

We have officially moved over to the CRU LinkedIn account! Follow along to stay updated on the latest industry insights, expert analyses, and more.

At The World Bank Extractives Global unit, we are committed to supporting governance, sustainability, and responsible resource management in the mining sector. Our goal is to help mobilize financing and investments for our client countries by enhancing institutional capacity, promoting environmental safeguards, and facilitating value-added industries to help countries leverage their mineral wealth for long-term development. This week at #PDAC2025, my team met with key clients from Latin America and Asia, organized several high-level panels and roundtables, with multiple stakeholders including senior government representatives, private sector and academia, focusing on investment facilitation, governance, and sustainable sector growth in mineral-rich developing countries. Additionally, we contributed to policy discussions on private sector investment opportunities in emerging mining economies, emphasizing the importance of collaboration for responsible resource development. Many thanks to my colleagues Javier Aguilar and Ricardo Labo for significantly advancing our lending operations in Latin America and to Rachel Perks for our stakeholder exchange on ASM together with out partners from the World Gold Council (David SJ Tait, Terry Heymann & Edward Bickham) and IGF (Isabelle Ramdoo). A key session, Capital Markets Program – "Global Panel: Headwinds to Headframes," examined the challenges in mobilizing investment capital for mining and exploration. The discussion highlighted initiatives by the investment community to strengthen industry performance and governance frameworks. A special thanks to our panelists Ana Sanches, Guy de Selliers, Kanchana Wanichkorn, Nick Stansbury, as well as our PDAC partner Ran Maoz, MBA and thank you my colleagues Michael Stanley, Ph.D. and Demetrios Papathanasiou for a perfect moderation and keynote address. We also convened a technical working group under our RISE partners to explore strategies for strengthening critical mineral value chains. The focus was on leveraging RISE to facilitate investment, promote sustainability, and integrate developing countries into solar PV and other supply chains for greater developmental impact. Special Thanks to our development partners led by our host, Patricia Pena on behalf of Government of Canada for the interesting exchange, as well as to our technical experts Simon Price and Emiliano Duch for the interesting insights into value chain opportunities in the solar market and my colleagues Sven Renner and Ewa Klimowicz for a perfect organization. And a special thanks to my colleague Tehreem Saifey Ford for a perfect organization of all our panels and roundtables working closely with our team to always get the job perfectly done! We look forward to building on these discussions. Let’s continue working together—please reach out to connect! #PDAC2025 #Mining #SustainableDevelopment #Governance #Investment #Extractives #GlobalEngagement

The world relies heavily on China to do the heavy lifting in solar manufacturing. China accounts for between 80% (module assembly) and more than 90% (polysilicon and wafer manufacturing) of global production capacity. But it also dominates demand: almost 60% of the 570 GWdc of global solar installations in 2024 happened in China. Global solar power growth dwarfs contributions from any other source and accounted for more than two-thirds of all electric power capacity growth in 2024. While such growth is a positive sign for decarbonisation, this dependence on one country can be viewed as a kind of investment portfolio risk: in solar, the world is putting too many of its eggs in one basket. So what can be done? Portfolio diversification means developing alternative sources of demand and supply. The rest of the world needs to raise its solar game. This week I had the chance to present to The World Bank’s technical working group in Toronto, focused on helping developing countries identify opportunities in solar supply chains. Some key takeaways from my presentation: ?? Up to 80% of module manufacturing costs come from a few key materials, including aluminium for frames, glass, silicon for wafers, plus silver for cell gridlines and copper for the string ribbon used to connect cells. ?? More than half of module manufacturing costs are incurred in the final step - module assembly - where cells are connected, encapsulated, weatherproofed, framed and fitted with a junction box. ?? Module processing is a low-tech, low-capex step, but it’s opex-intensive and many of the materials in this step (notably glass and aluminium) are bulky. Developing nations can benefit from solar today, by installing cheap imported modules. But there are opportunities to play a role in manufacturing too. Assembling modules locally from imported cells, and where possible leveraging domestic material supply chains, can make more sense than importing finished modules from overseas. This may provide a lower-risk entry point into manufacturing for developing countries than a full-supply-chain approach including ingot, wafer and cell processing. However, arguably China’s greatest advantage at this point is the scale of its supply chains, enabling China to achieve a cost level that will be extraordinarily difficult to match. Added to this is the overcapacity at all stages of solar manufacturing, which has led to prices falling below cost in recent quarters. Growing geographically diverse alternatives requires strategic long-term commitment, regional partnerships and significant investment backed by policy support. Thanks to Demetrios Papathanasiou, Patricia Pena, Sven Renner, Ewa Klimowicz and colleagues for the opportunity to present. Interested in learning more? CRU and Kiwa PVEL’s Solar Technology and Cost (STAC) service explores the above issues in detail. Get in touch with me or my solar-focused colleagues Alex Barrows and Molly Morgan.

Are quality concerns solar’s greatest battle in 2025? ?? A few weeks ago, I had the pleasure of presenting at SolarPower Europe’s Solar Quality Summit 2025. Here are my key takeaways from the event: ???? Quality concerns are real and with good reason Following severe supply and demand imbalances in 2022, some solar manufacturers cut corners in production to reduce manufacturing costs and avoid being forced out of the market. As a result, there has been an eruption of quality concerns in the PV industry. Today, as the industry continues to scale, the importance of rigorous and trusted performance testing is clear ?? Solar and energy storage share common themes From overcapacities to what factors drive technology transitions, there are many similarities between the solar PV and battery industries. Today, both industries are focussed on incremental improvements in performance, but with innovations such as tandem cells and solid-state batteries on the horizon, the next decade holds potential for bigger performance leaps. But with both solar and batteries both having faced rapid price reductions in 2024, next-gen technologies need to offer significant improvement to performance to offset higher production costs ?? It’s not all doom and gloom Despite a slow in growth rate, solar installations are forecast to increase in 2025 on a global level. In our recent webinar with Kiwa PVEL, Tristan spoke of how modules are failing testing at alarming rates, but with proper due diligence and testing we can ensure these installations are ones of good quality If you missed this webinar covering hot topics from our Q1 2025 Solar Technology and Cost (STAC) report and key questions for the solar industry in 2025, you can access the recording here: https://lnkd.in/emDg-hFT A big thank you to Thérèse and the rest of the SolarPower Europe team for hosting and organising a great event! #SolarQualityEU #solarPV #energytransition

Where does the US *actually* import its solar modules from? ???? Earlier this year, President Trump claimed that for the US “100% of the panels are made in China”, whilst in the past this may have been closer to the truth this is much less true today A number of years ago, before the first AD-CVD case?in the US in 2012, China was the dominant exporter to the US. However, to avoid tariffs associated with AD-CVD cases, many Chinese manufacturers broadened their horizons and established manufacturing locations in SE Asia Today, China does not even rank in the top ten list of PV module exporters to the US. Instead, a more correct statement would be that most modules exported to the US come from South-East Asia. Albeit, mostly by Chinese owned companies often using Chinese-made wafers! Over the last few years Vietnam, Malaysia, Thailand and Cambodia have been the key source of modules for the US. More recently, changes to tariffs and incentives in the US are shifting the landscape, with other South-East Asian countries like Laos taking a larger share, after seeing an increase in manufacturing capacity Of course, things are constantly changing, so the US market is definitely one to watch!? We’ll be discussing the ever-changing US solar landscape, looking at supply issues and changing trade flows across the entire value chain in CRU and PVEL’s joint webinar TOMORROW. Register for free here: https://lnkd.in/eiRR5q9J #makesolargreatagain #solartechnologyandcost #solarPV

Ever wish you had a magic 8 ball to look into the future of the solar PV industry? ?? Well, CRU’s quarterly webinars in collaboration with Kiwa PVEL might be the next best thing! Tune into our free webinar on the 12th February for a deep dive into our Q1 Solar Technology and Cost Service and our view of what to expect for the solar industry in 2025 Alex, Tristan, Jorn, Max and myself will discuss topics including: ?? What does PV supply/demand look like at the start of 2025, and how are manufacturers responding to the ongoing oversupply issues? ?? What's the outlook for US imports and US manufacturing going into a new year and a new administration? ?? What new modules and technology trends are likely to emerge in 2025? ?? Will TOPCon modules continue to dominate the market, and how are they performing in Kiwa PVEL’s tests? ?? Plus, insights from CRU’s Silicon Market Service! Registration is free: https://lnkd.in/eh63WX9J #solartechnologyandcost #STAC #solarPV

I’m very excited to be presenting at SolarPower Europe's Solar Quality Summit 2025! ?? Solar PV is one of the vital technologies driving the clean energy transition and in 2024 the solar industry experienced rapid growth. But as the industry grows, how will manufacturers continue to innovate in terms of technologies and performance? And how will we navigate the challenge of maintaining quality at scale? On the 18th February 2025, I’ll be speaking in the PV Crash Course session on these topics alongside Simon Dupond, Michael Schmela and Thérèse O Donoghue and Benoit van der Maas Register or find more about the event here: https://lnkd.in/eaRWke5D and if you’re not attending the event but you’ll be in Barcelona and would like to meet, let me know! #SolarQualityEU #SolarPowerEurope #solarPV

Register now for our free February 12th webinar on Hot Topics and Key Questions for the Solar Industry in 2025. Molly Morgan, Tristan Erion-Lorico, Max Macpherson, silicon metal specialist Jorn de Linde and I will be covering a few tasters from our 2025 Q1 reports. We'll be talking: - Chinese cartels - TOPCon testing - silicon supply - American AD/CVD - and all-TOPCon advances Hopefully without such tortured alliteration ??, though I make no promises. Register here if you're keen to learn more about how the industry is set to evolve this year: https://lnkd.in/eMYkkUdD

Here’s what you missed from the last 12 months in the solar PV industry: ? ???? China’s domination of global module manufacturing capacity continued, representing 80% of global capacity. This isn’t going to change, and recent policy updates from China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology on capacity performance requirements are unlikely to have a significant impact on overcapacity ? ?? The top ten manufacturers account for ~52% of global module capacity. To put this into context, total global capacity by the end of 2024 reached almost three times greater than likely demand in 2025. The top ten manufacturers alone already have the capacity to account for 130% of expected 2025 global installations ? ?? Growth in global installations slowed year-on-year, down from a 77% Y/Y increase in 2023 to 17% in 2024. We forecast PV installations will continue to increase, but growth rates to remain at broadly similar levels to 2024 ? ?? Overproduction throughout the supply chain (polysilicon, through ingot, wafer and cell, to module) remained at unsustainable levels in 2024, meaning downwards pressure on prices will persist into 2025. Following a large-scale transition away from mono PERC in 2024, the majority of production is now TOPCon technology ? 5?? The top five manufacturers account for ~54% of global module production, with module production the least consolidated step of the solar PV supply chain ? ?? Consolidation of production has not only occurred at the module level. Recent years saw the polysilicon, wafer and cell markets experience high levels of consolidation in terms of the production of the top ten manufacturers. We expect more manufacturers to be forced out the market in 2025, but with small impact on the levels of consolidation due to the scale of the top ten producers ?? Need more information on the big picture of the solar market? Get in touch to register interest for CRU’s soon-to-be-released Solar PV Market 101 report, a one-stop shop for the most important market facts and figures ?? #solarPV #solartechnology #PVmarket

Which solar manufacturer had the biggest technological leap in 2024???? ? I had the pleasure of discussing this topic with George Touloupas, Amy Fang and Jonathan Gifford at the end of last year to crown the winner of the module category in the 2024 pv magazine Global awards! There was a clear consensus that back-contact technology has advanced in leaps and bounds over the past twelve months, with manufacturers AIKO Energy and LONGi Solar acting as key drivers of the technology In comparison to TOPCon, back-contact technology has a smaller impact on the market due to its significantly smaller market share (roughly 70% of production in 2024 for TOPCon, vs. 5% for back-contact). Nonetheless, the category deserves recognition for its rear-contact design which results in reduced shading losses that in turn enables higher efficiencies In 2024, within CRU’s PV Module Tracker, Aiko has consistently led the back-contact category (and the market as a whole) in terms of efficiency. By the end of 2024, Aiko had released back-contact module datasheets with stated maximum efficiency of over 25%. As a result, the max efficiency of the back-contact technology improved by 1.17% (abs.) in 2024, compared to 0.91% and 0.75% for rival technologies heterojunction and TOPCon respectively ? If you are curious about how performance metrics of the various technologies will play out in the near future, tune in to CRU's upcoming webinar in partnership with Kiwa PVEL for discussions on this topic and many more! Message me or drop a comment below to be sent a registration link once it's available! #solartechnology #backcontact #solarPV